The DOI matches its Crossref record.
Conjectures and Refutations: The Growth of Scientific Knowledge
Overview
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
In the citing paper
“Without this clarity, the hypothesis risks becoming what philosopher Karl Popper would call a “metaphysical research program” (Popper 2014)—influential but ultimately unfalsifiable.”
From The myth of the Bayesian brain (2025) · cites this paper as Popper 2014
Citations
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Papers and patents are becoming less disruptive over time
Park, M., Leahey, E., & Funk, R. J. (2023) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-022-05543-x · Cited by 899
How to Tell When Simpler, More Unified, or LessAd HocTheories will Provide More Accurate Predictions
FORSTER, M., & Sober, E. R. (1994) · The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science · doi:10.1093/bjps/45.1.1 · Cited by 661
Yarkoni, T. (2022) · Behavioral and Brain Sciences · doi:10.1017/s0140525x20001685 · Cited by 701
Countering antivaccination attitudes
Horne, Z., Powell, D., Hummel, J. E., & Holyoak, K. J. (2015) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1504019112 · Cited by 350
A checklist for maximizing reproducibility of ecological niche models
Feng, X., Park, D. S., Walker, C., Peterson, A. T., Merow, C., & Papeş, M. (2019) · Nature Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1038/s41559-019-0972-5 · Cited by 323
Prediction Versus Accommodation and the Risk of Overfitting
Hitchcock, C., & Sober, E. R. (2004) · The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science · doi:10.1093/bjps/55.1.1 · Cited by 301
The enemy between us: The psychological and social costs of inequality
Wilkinson, R. G., & Pickett, K. E. (2017) · European Journal of Social Psychology · doi:10.1002/ejsp.2275 · Cited by 280
Thoresen, C. E. (1999) · Journal of Health Psychology · doi:10.1177/135910539900400314 · Cited by 244
Letting the chat out of the bag: Deconstruction, privilege and accounting research
Arrington, C. E., & Francis, J. R. (1989) · Accounting Organizations and Society · doi:10.1016/0361-3682(89)90030-5 · Cited by 230
Verisimilitude: The Third Period
Niiniluoto, I. (1998) · The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science · doi:10.1093/bjps/49.1.1 · Cited by 215
Norm Dynamics: Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Social Norm Emergence, Persistence, and Change
Gelfand, M. J., Gavrilets, S., & Nunn, N. (2023) · Annual Review of Psychology · doi:10.1146/annurev-psych-033020-013319 · Cited by 213
Conceptualizing Evolutionary Novelty: Moving Beyond Definitional Debates
Brigandt, I., & Love, A. C. (2012) · Journal of Experimental Zoology Part B Molecular and Developmental Evolution · doi:10.1002/jez.b.22461 · Cited by 151
Taylor, J. E. T., & Taylor, G. W. (2020) · Psychonomic Bulletin & Review · doi:10.3758/s13423-020-01825-5 · Cited by 154
“Cognitive psychology has a strong Popperian tradition of falsifica-tionism (Popper, 2014), where we gain confidence not by finding confirmation of our theory but by defeating alternatives against it.”
BackgroundUnderstanding the Replication Crisis as a Base Rate Fallacy
Bird, A. (2018) · The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science · doi:10.1093/bjps/axy051 · Cited by 126
Orrú, G., & Longo, L. (2019) · Communications in computer and information science · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-14273-5_3 · Cited by 145
Deducing Reaction Mechanism: A Guide for Students, Researchers, and Instructors
Meek, S. J., Pitman, C. L., & Miller, A. J. M. (2016) · Journal of Chemical Education · doi:10.1021/acs.jchemed.5b00160 · Cited by 104
Lal, B. B. (1995) · American Behavioral Scientist · doi:10.1177/0002764295038003005 · Cited by 87
GARDNER, M. R. (1982) · The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science · doi:10.1093/bjps/33.1.1 · Cited by 81
Scientific conclusions need not be accurate, justified, or believed by their authors
Dang, H., & Bright, L. K. (2021) · Synthese · doi:10.1007/s11229-021-03158-9 · Cited by 78
“…way our study of the somewhat niche topic of norms for avowals connects up with classic themes in the philosophy of science (e.g. Feyerabend, 1993; Popper, 2014), wherein it is emphasised that for science as a whole to progress individual scientists may operate in a somewhat gung-ho or ad-hoc…”
BackgroundEvaluation of theories and calculation tools in ecology
Leohle, C. (1983) · Ecological Modelling · doi:10.1016/0304-3800(83)90041-8 · Cited by 77
An Idol of the Market-Place: Baconianism in Nineteenth Century Britain
Yeo, R. R. (1985) · History of Science · doi:10.1177/007327538502300302 · Cited by 75
Reconstructing political realism the long march to scientific theory
Tellis, A. J. (1995) · Security Studies · doi:10.1080/09636419508429263 · Cited by 74
Regimes, Interpretation and the 'Science' of Politics: A Reappraisal
Kratochwil, F. V. (1988) · Millennium Journal of International Studies · doi:10.1177/03058298880170021001 · Cited by 65
Modeling climate change in the absence of climate change data
Skiles, J. W. (1995) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/bf01093222 · Cited by 62
Conspiracy Beliefs and Acceptance of COVID-Vaccine: An Exploratory Study in Italy
Pivetti, M., Melotti, G., Bonomo, M., & Hakoköngäs, E. J. (2021) · Social Sciences · doi:10.3390/socsci10030108 · Cited by 67
Response to Martyn Hammersley's Paper `on Feminist Methodology'
Gelsthorpe, L. R. (1992) · Sociology · doi:10.1177/0038038592026002004 · Cited by 60
Interprofessional identity and motivation towards interprofessional collaboration
Reinders, J. J., & Krijnen, W. P. (2023) · Medical Education · doi:10.1111/medu.15096 · Cited by 71
Clearing the ground: Foundational questions once again
Campbell, R. L., & Bickhard, M. H. (1992) · Journal of Pragmatics · doi:10.1016/0378-2166(92)90077-o · Cited by 55
Math Education with Large Language Models: Peril or Promise?
Kumar, H., Rothschild, D. M., Goldstein, D. G., & Hofman, J. (2023) · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4641653 · Cited by 54
Milton, J. R. (1987) · The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science · doi:10.1093/bjps/38.1.49 · Cited by 48
Metatheorizing the Dialectic of Self and Other
Carr, A. N., & Zanetti, L. A. (1999) · American Behavioral Scientist · doi:10.1177/00027649921955281 · Cited by 47
Montessori education's impact on academic and nonacademic outcomes: A systematic review
Randolph, J. J., Bryson, A., Menon, L., Henderson, D. K., Kureethara Manuel, A., Michaels, S., rosenstein, D. L. W., McPherson, W., O'Grady, R., & Lillard, A. S. (2023) · Campbell Systematic Reviews: Better Evidence for a Better World · doi:10.1002/cl2.1330 · Cited by 44
Known unknowns: Filling the gaps in scientific knowledge production in the Caatinga
Lessa, T., dos Santos, J. W., Correia, R. A., Ladle, R. J., & Malhado, A. C. M. (2019) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0219359 · Cited by 46
A perspective on systems science and systems philosophy
M'Pherson, P. K. (1974) · Futures · doi:10.1016/0016-3287(74)90046-9 · Cited by 44
Linguistic universals as evidence for empiricism
Sampson, G. R. (1978) · Journal of Linguistics · doi:10.1017/s0022226700005867 · Cited by 44
Deep learning’s shallow gains: a comparative evaluation of algorithms for automatic music generation
Yin, Z., Reuben, F., Stepney, S., & Collins, T. (2023) · Machine Learning · doi:10.1007/s10994-023-06309-w · Cited by 58
“…observed characteristic of science, and one that is used to distinguish it from pseudoscience, is that scientific theories consist of falsifiable statements, which—in spite of attempts to falsify them via experiments—appear to stand the test of time (Goodwin and Goodwin, 2016; Popper, 2005, 2014).”
BackgroundCaves, K. M., Baumann, S., & Renold, U. (2019) · Journal of Vocational Education and Training · doi:10.1080/13636820.2019.1698643 · Cited by 41
Johnson, D. K., Mello, E. J., Walker, T. D., Hood, S. J., Jensen, J. L., & Poole, B. D. (2019) · Vaccines · doi:10.3390/vaccines7020039 · Cited by 39
Is there feedback regulation of neurotransmitter release by autoreceptors?
Kalsner, S. (1985) · Biochemical Pharmacology · doi:10.1016/0006-2952(85)90199-6 · Cited by 38
From replication to substantiation: A complexity theory perspective
Al‐Hoorie, A. H., Hiver, P. V., Larsen‐Freeman, D., & Lowie, W. M. (2021) · Language Teaching · doi:10.1017/s0261444821000409 · Cited by 39
Macnamara, J. (1991) · The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science · doi:10.1093/bjps/42.1.21 · Cited by 37
Realizing Theory: The Philosophy of Science Revisited
Gunnell, J. G. (1995) · The Journal of Politics · doi:10.2307/2960396 · Cited by 36
Rieg, T., Frick, J., Baumgartl, H., & Buettner, R. (2020) · PLOS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0243615 · Cited by 34
van IJzendoorn, M. H., & Bakermans‐Kranenburg, M. J. (2015) · Journal of Neuroendocrinology · doi:10.1111/jne.12355 · Cited by 33
The Ethos of Science Revisited
Steh, N. (1978) · Sociological Inquiry · doi:10.1111/j.1475-682x.1978.tb00825.x · Cited by 32
The Link between Dependency and Cochange: Empirical Evidence
Geipel, M. M., & Schweitzer, F. (2012) · IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering · doi:10.1109/tse.2011.91 · Cited by 31
Byron, J. M. (2007) · The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science · doi:10.1093/bjps/axm021 · Cited by 31
The Standing of Psychoanalysis
Erwin, E. (1984) · The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science · doi:10.1093/bjps/35.2.115 · Cited by 31
New Axioms for Probability and Likelihood Ratio Measures
Crupi, V., Nick Chater, A., & Tentori, K. (2012) · The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science · doi:10.1093/bjps/axs018 · Cited by 30
“Generalized Darwinism” and the quest for an evolutionary theory of policy-making
Schubert, C. (2013) · Journal of Evolutionary Economics · doi:10.1007/s00191-013-0304-x · Cited by 32
Ducks, Rabbits, and Normal Science: Recasting the Kuhn's-eye View of Popper's Demarcation of Science
Mayo, D. G. (1996) · The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science · doi:10.1093/bjps/47.2.271 · Cited by 30
Causality in Performance Measurement ModelPreprint
Malina, M. A., & Selto, F. H. (2004) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.488144 · Cited by 30
O’Reilly, K., O’Connell, P., O’Sullivan, D., Corvin, A. P., Sheerin, J., O’Flynn, P., Donohoe, G. J., McCarthy, H., Ambrosh, D., O’Donnell, M., et al. (2019) · BMC Psychiatry · doi:10.1186/s12888-019-2372-4 · Cited by 31
Education and Mindfulness Practice: Exploring a Dialog Between Two Traditions
Ergas, O. (2019) · Mindfulness · doi:10.1007/s12671-019-01130-w · Cited by 32
Creative Outcome as Implausible Utility
Tsao, J. Y., Ting, C. L., & Johnson, C. M. (2019) · Review of General Psychology · doi:10.1177/1089268019857929 · Cited by 27
Limitations of Hydrogen Detection After 150 Years of Research on Hydrogen Embrittlement
Tunes, M. A., Uggowitzer, P. J., Dumitraschkewitz, P., Willenshofer, P. D., Samberger, S., da Silva, F. C., Schön, C. G., Kremmer, T., Antrekowitsch, H., Djukic, M. B., et al. (2024) · Advanced Engineering Materials · doi:10.1002/adem.202400776 · Cited by 28
Rubin, A. (1998) · American Behavioral Scientist · doi:10.1177/0002764298042003021 · Cited by 25
Oddie, G. (2017) · The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science · doi:10.1093/bjps/axx032 · Cited by 25
Scientific integrity: what a journal can and cannot do
Lüscher, T. F., Fox, K. M., Hamm, C. W., Carter, R. E., Taddei, S., Simoons, M. L., & Crea, F. (2020) · European Heart Journal · doi:10.1093/eurheartj/ehaa963 · Cited by 27
Approximate Truth and Dynamical Theories
Smith, P. J. (1998) · The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science · doi:10.1093/bjps/49.2.253 · Cited by 26
Evaluating instructional designs with mental workload assessments in university classrooms
Longo, L., & Orrú, G. (2020) · Behaviour and Information Technology · doi:10.1080/0144929x.2020.1864019 · Cited by 24
Beyond Constructivism: Autonomy-Oriented Education
Aviram, A. (2000) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-94-017-1137-1_7 · Cited by 23
Francis Bacon as a Precursor to Popper
Urbach, P. (1982) · The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science · doi:10.1093/bjps/33.2.113 · Cited by 22
Maxwell, N. (1993) · The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science · doi:10.1093/bjps/44.2.275 · Cited by 21
Conceptual review on scientific reasoning and scientific thinking
Díaz, C. M. C., Dorner, B., Hußmann, H., & Strijbos, J.-W. (2021) · Current Psychology · doi:10.1007/s12144-021-01786-5 · Cited by 30
Academic excellence and community relevance: Can we have it all?
Shavit, A., & Silver, Y. (2022) · Public Understanding of Science · doi:10.1177/09636625221087321 · Cited by 22
Maxwell, N. (1993) · The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science · doi:10.1093/bjps/44.1.61 · Cited by 21
Shamsuddin, R., Tabrizi, H. B., & Gottimukkula, P. R. (2025) · AI Perspectives & Advances · doi:10.1186/s42467-024-00016-5 · Cited by 28
Dynamical Models in Neuroscience From a Closed-Loop Control Perspective
Martínez, S., García-Violini, D., Belluscio, M., Piriz, J., & Sánchez‐Peña, R. (2022) · IEEE Reviews in Biomedical Engineering · doi:10.1109/rbme.2022.3180559 · Cited by 20
Koertge, N. (1992) · The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science · doi:10.1093/bjps/43.1.85 · Cited by 20
Agency theory: A falsificationist perspective
Walker, M. (1989) · Accounting Organizations and Society · doi:10.1016/0361-3682(89)90010-x · Cited by 20
Essential(ist) medicine: promoting social explanations for racial variation in biomedical research
Gutin, I. (2018) · Medical Humanities · doi:10.1136/medhum-2017-011432 · Cited by 20
Currie, A. (2021) · Erkenntnis · doi:10.1007/s10670-020-00370-w · Cited by 19
Garner, H. R., & Wren, J. D. (2004) · IEEE Engineering in Medicine and Biology Magazine · doi:10.1109/memb.2004.1310989 · Cited by 19
The role of models in managing the uncertainty of software-intensive systems
Littlewood, B., Neil, M., & Ostrolenk, G. (1995) · Reliability Engineering & System Safety · doi:10.1016/0951-8320(95)00073-b · Cited by 19
T. E. Cliffe Leslie and the English Methodenstreit
Moore, G. C. G. (1995) · Journal of the History of Economic Thought · doi:10.1017/s1053837200002297 · Cited by 19
Making Problems in Design Research
Encinas, E., Blythe, M., Lawson, S. W., et al. (2018) · CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems · doi:10.1145/3173574.3173646 · Cited by 18
Pérez‐Escobar, J. A. (2022) · Kriterion – Journal of Philosophy · doi:10.1515/krt-2021-0041 · Cited by 18
Gay, H. (1978) · Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A · doi:10.1016/0039-3681(78)90006-7 · Cited by 18
Digital evidence: dream and reality
Oppliger, R., & Rytz, R. (2003) · IEEE Security & Privacy · doi:10.1109/msecp.2003.1236234 · Cited by 17
Kochan, J. (2009) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-1-4020-9338-8_22 · Cited by 16
Fernbach, P. M., & Bogard, J. E. (2023) · Topics in Cognitive Science · doi:10.1111/tops.12662 · Cited by 17
DIKW as a General and Digital Twin Action Framework: Data, Information, Knowledge, and Wisdom
Grieves, M. W. (2024) · Knowledge · doi:10.3390/knowledge4020007 · Cited by 16
Confucian Entrepreneurship: Towards a Genealogy of a Conceptual Tool
Smith, A. D. A., & Kaminishi, M. (2019) · Journal of Management Studies · doi:10.1111/joms.12439 · Cited by 17
P. Kyle Stanford Exceeding Our Grasp: Science, History, and the Problem of Unconceived Alternatives
Enfield, P. (2008) · The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science · doi:10.1093/bjps/axn042 · Cited by 16
On the scope of scientific hypotheses
Thompson, W. H., & Skau, S. (2023) · Royal Society Open Science · doi:10.1098/rsos.230607 · Cited by 23
On the origin of synthetic life: attribution of output to a particular algorithm
Yampolskiy, R. V. (2016) · Physica Scripta · doi:10.1088/0031-8949/92/1/013002 · Cited by 16
Pension Politics in the Nordic Countries: A Case Study
Øverbye, E. (1996) · International Political Science Review · doi:10.1177/019251296017001005 · Cited by 15
Math Education With Large Language Models: Peril or Promise?
Kumar, H., Rothschild, D. M., Goldstein, D. G., & Hofman, J. M. (2025) · Lecture Notes in Computer Science · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-98459-4_5 · Cited by 54
Epistemic Justification and Methodological Luck in Inflationary Cosmology
McCoy, C. D. (2018) · The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science · doi:10.1093/bjps/axy014 · Cited by 16
Comparing Theories by their Positive and Negative Contents
Burger, I. C., & Heidema, J. (1994) · The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science · doi:10.1093/bjps/45.2.605 · Cited by 14
The Virtues of Pursuit-Worthy Speculation: The Promises of Cosmic Inflation
Wolf, W. J., & Duerr, P. M. (2023) · The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science · doi:10.1086/728263 · Cited by 18
Two Impossibility Results for Measures of Corroboration
Sprenger, J. (2016) · The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science · doi:10.1093/bjps/axw016 · Cited by 13
Bayes and health care research
Allmark, P. (2005) · Medicine Health Care and Philosophy · doi:10.1007/s11019-004-0804-4 · Cited by 13
The myth of the Bayesian brain
Mangalam, M. (2025) · European Journal of Applied Physiology · doi:10.1007/s00421-025-05855-6 · Cited by 14
“Without this clarity, the hypothesis risks becoming what philosopher Karl Popper would call a “metaphysical research program” (Popper 2014)—influential but ultimately unfalsifiable.”
“Choice-supportive bias” in science: Explanation and mitigation
Kafaee, M., Marhamati, H., & Gharibzadeh, S. (2021) · Accountability in Research · doi:10.1080/08989621.2021.1872377 · Cited by 12
Difalco, A., & Castellero, A. (2025) · Inorganics · doi:10.3390/inorganics13100332 · Cited by 12
A philosophy of science approach to the amyloid hypothesis of Alzheimer's disease
Daly, T. P. (2024) · European Journal of Neuroscience · doi:10.1111/ejn.16500 · Cited by 14
“In this particular instance, he is involved in the rhetorical brandishing of falsification-ism (Popper, 2014) that philosopher and sociologist of science Thomas F. Gieryn has called “ boundary work ” (Gieryn, 1983).”
Nullius in Explanans: an ethical risk assessment for explainable AI
Nannini, L., Huyskes, D., Panai, E., Pistilli, G., & Tartaro, A. (2024) · Ethics and Information Technology · doi:10.1007/s10676-024-09800-7 · Cited by 16
“Thus in scientific disciplines, including AI, explanations should be empirically grounded, testable, and open to revision based on new evidence (Popper, 2014; Stanford, 2006).”
Adewumi, T., Liwicki, F., & Liwicki, M. (2019) · Philosophies · doi:10.3390/philosophies4030041 · Cited by 13
Metadata
- Authors
- Popper, K.
- Corresponding author
- Popper, Karl
- Venue
- Routledge eBooks
- Publisher
- Routledge
- Published
- 2014-05-01
- Volume
- 19
- Issue
- 2
- OpenAlex
- W3126953938
- Cited by
- 327
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 22 · 2025: 27 · 2024: 18 · 2023: 27 · 2022: 17 · 2021: 23 · 2020: 14 · 2019: 22 · 2018: 16 · 2017: 9 · 2016: 10 · 2015: 6 · 2014: 7
- FWCI
- 14.52
- Type
- book
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Routledge eBooks (publishedVersion)
- The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › History and Philosophy of Science › Logic and Philosophy of Science
- Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › History and Philosophy of Science › Philosophy of Biology and Scientific Explanation
- Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › History and Philosophy of Science › History and Theory of Mathematics
- Keywords
- conjecture, refutation, scientific reasoning, hypothesis testing
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review