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Cited by 3Climate Change, Adaptation, MigrationClimate change impacts on agricultureAgricultural risk and resilience

Migration as an adaptation strategy to weather variability

Alem, Yonas, Maurel, Mathilde, Millock, Katrin·2018·Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change in Africa
DOI 10.4324/9781315149776-16
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Abstract

There is solid scientific evidence predicting that a large part of the developing world will suffer a greater incidence of extreme weather events, which may increase the incidence of displacement migration. We draw on the new economics of migration to model migration decisions of smallholder and rain-dependent farm households in rural Ethiopia and investigate both the ex ante and ex post impacts of climate variables. Using detailed household survey panel data matched with rainfall data, we show that weather variability – measured by the coefficient of variation of rainfall – has a strong positive impact on the probability of sending a migrant. This implies that households engage in migration to cope with risk ex ante. We also find evidence suggesting that rainfall shocks have ex post impact on households&s; likelihood of migration, but the effect is not significant at the conventional levels. Instrumental variables probit regression results also show that controlling for endogeneity of income using a credible instrument is important to identify its impact on the decision to migrate. Our findings have important implications for policies aiming to improve the capacity of vulnerable households to adapt to climate change.

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Crossref · 10.4324/9781315149776-16

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  • This finding aligns with migration patterns in other regions of Sub Saharan Africa, where adequate rainfall reduces displacement risks by ensuring resource availability and economic stability.

    “This finding aligns with migration patterns observed in other regions of Sub Saharan Africa, where adequate rainfall reduces displacement risks by ensuring resource availability and economic stability (Alem et al., 2018).”

    From Climate change and migration dynamics in Somalia: a time series analysis of environmental displacement (2025) · cites this paper as Alem et al., 2018

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Authors
Alem, Y., Maurel, M., & Millock, K.
Affiliations
  • University of Gothenburg (SE)
  • Centre d'Économie de la Sorbonne (FR)
ORCID
Venue
Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change in Africa
Publisher
Routledge
Published
2018-03-05
Pages
384-403
DOI
10.4324/9781315149776-16
OpenAlex
W2461106555
Cited by
3
References
57
Citations by year
2025: 2 · 2021: 1
FWCI
1.40
Type
book chapter
Language
en
Open access
closed
Locations
Routledge eBooks (publishedVersion)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration
  • Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics › Climate change impacts on agriculture
  • Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Soil Science › Agricultural risk and resilience
Keywords
climate-induced migration, weather variability, rainfall shocks, smallholder farmers, rural Ethiopia, migration decisions, climate change adaptation, extreme weather events, rural-urban migration

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