Natural disasters and population mobility in Bangladesh
Open accessAbstract
The consequences of environmental change for human migration have gained increasing attention in the context of climate change and recent large-scale natural disasters, but as yet relatively few large-scale and quantitative studies have addressed this issue. We investigate the consequences of climate-related natural disasters for long-term population mobility in rural Bangladesh, a region particularly vulnerable to environmental change, using longitudinal survey data from 1,700 households spanning a 15-y period. Multivariate event history models are used to estimate the effects of flooding and crop failures on local population mobility and long-distance migration while controlling for a large set of potential confounders at various scales. The results indicate that flooding has modest effects on mobility that are most visible at moderate intensities and for women and the poor. However, crop failures unrelated to flooding have strong effects on mobility in which households that are not directly affected but live in severely affected areas are the most likely to move. These results point toward an alternate paradigm of disaster-induced mobility that recognizes the significant barriers to migration for vulnerable households as well their substantial local adaptive capacity.
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Various studies suggest that most people remain in their place of residence even when environmental conditions deteriorate dramatically.
“And yet, various studies suggest that most people remain in their place of residence even when environmental conditions deteriorate dramatically (Gray and Mueller 2012; Jamero et al. 2017; Khatun et al. 2022; Mallick and Mallick 2021; Penning-Rowsell et al. 2013).”
From Trapped by climate change? (In)voluntary immobility in Bangladesh (2025) · cites this paper as Gray and Mueller 2012
Recent studies from Bangladesh report that flooding has an insignificant or even negative effect on migration.
“The latter finding is in line with recent studies from Bangladesh reporting that flooding has an insignificant or even negative effect on migration (Call et al., 2017; Chen et al., 2017; Gray & Mueller, 2012; Chen & Mueller, 2018).”
From Environmental shocks and migration among a climate-vulnerable population in Bangladesh (2025) · cites this paper as Gray & Mueller, 2012
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“…of scholarship and research on climate change and migration, which dates back three decades (Tickell 1990, Myers 1993, Myers 2002, Gemenne 2011, Marchiori and Schumacher 2011, Gray and Mueller 2012, Bohra-Mishra et al 2014, Mcleman 2014, Zickgraf et al 2016, Grace et al 2018, Piguet et al 2018).”
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- Authors
- Gray, C. L., & Mueller, V.
- Affiliations
- University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (US)
- International Food Policy Research Institute (US)
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2012-04-02
- Volume
- 109
- Issue
- 16
- Pages
- 6000-6005
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC3341015
- OpenAlex
- W1976473400
- Cited by
- 687
- References
- 57
- Citations by year
- 2026: 57 · 2025: 51 · 2024: 63 · 2023: 73 · 2022: 67 · 2021: 64 · 2020: 70 · 2019: 56 · 2018: 41 · 2017: 30 · 2016: 47 · 2015: 19 · 2014: 25 · 2013: 15 · 2012: 9
- FWCI
- 71.49
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Carolina Digital Repository (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill) (submittedVersion)
- IFPRI E-brary (International Food Policy Research Institute) (submittedVersion)
- CGSPace A Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- International Food Policy Research Institute (International Food Policy Research Institute) (submittedVersion)
- UNC Libraries
- Funders
- National Institutes of Health (2r24hd050924-06)
- Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (R24 HD-050924, R00HD061752)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration
- Social Sciences › Transportation › Earthquake and Disaster Impact Studies
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Hydropower, Displacement, Environmental Impact
- Keywords
- natural disasters, human mobility, climate change, floods, crop failure, rural migration, long-distance migration, disaster-induced migration, vulnerable families, women, poverty, adaptive capacity, Bangladesh
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adult, Bangladesh, Disasters, Emigration and Immigration, Family Characteristics, Female, Humans, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Population Dynamics, Rural Population, Time Factors, Multivariate Analysis, Young Adult, Floods, Climate Change
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