Migration as adaptation
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
2 of 19 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged · accuracy not yet measured
- Premisecitation
Diminished soil quality in Kenya has led people to travel to diversify their income.
“Diminished soil quality in Kenya has led people to travel to diversify their income.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [4] Gray, C. Glob. Environ. Change 21, 421–430 (2011). source
The Discussion reports a strong association in Kenya between low soil quality and temporary labor migration, and suggests that households send migrants to generate additional income. The claim presents this suggested response as an established causal effect; the paper does not establish that diminished soil quality caused people to migrate. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- Premisecitation
In 2004-05, temporary labour migration in households farming high-quality soils in Kenya was 67% lower than in those using poor soils.
“In 2004-05, for example, temporary labour migration in households that were farming land with high-quality soils was 67% lower than in those using poor soils 4 .”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked- cites [4] Gray, C. Glob. Environ. Change 21, 421–430 (2011). source
Results §5.1 (Kenya; page not provided) reports that the odds of temporary labor migration were 67% lower for households with high-quality soil. The citing sentence presents this as a 67% reduction in migration itself, rather than in its odds. Data Collection §3.1 also says the Kenyan surveys were conducted in 2004 and 2007, not 2004–05. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
- Findingreasoning
In Uganda, wealthier people are more able to relocate.
“For example, in Uganda, a relatively settled country with high 'entry costs' for housing, schools and marriage, those who are wealthier are more able to relocate.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Premisecitation
In Bangladesh, moving to cities has become a common coping strategy in the face of flooding.
“In Bangladesh, for example, moving to cities has become a common coping strategy in the face of flooding.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [3] Penning-Rowsell, E., Sultana, S. & Thompson, P. Population Movement in Response to Climate Related Hazards in Bangladesh: The 'Last Resort' (Government Office for Science, 2011); available at http://go.nature.com/somswg
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Interpretationreasoning
Environmental factors will increasingly influence migration.
“Environmental factors will increasingly influence migration.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [1] Foresight: Migration and Global Environmental Change Final Project Report (Government Office for Science, 2011); available at http://go.nature.com/somswg
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Rests on an assumption: Current greenhouse-gas emissions are already committing the planet to likely climate changes in the next 20 years.
- Interpretationcitation
Maladaptive policies designed to prevent migration may exacerbate the risks borne by those unable or unwilling to relocate.
“and may be exacerbated by maladaptive policies designed to prevent migration.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [1] Foresight: Migration and Global Environmental Change Final Project Report (Government Office for Science, 2011); available at http://go.nature.com/somswg
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Interpretationcitation
The greatest risks from environmental change will be borne by those who are unable or unwilling to relocate.
“The greatest risks will be borne by those who are unable or unwilling to re locate”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [1] Foresight: Migration and Global Environmental Change Final Project Report (Government Office for Science, 2011); available at http://go.nature.com/somswg
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Premisecitation
In Dakar, Senegal, 40% of those who moved there between 1998 and 2008 live in areas of high flood risk.
“In Dakar, Senegal, for example, 40% of those who moved there between 1998 and 2008 live in areas of high flood risk 8 .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [8] World Bank World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change (World Bank, 2010). source
- Interpretationcitation
Migration may be the most effective way to allow people to diversify income and build resilience where environmental change threatens livelihoods.
“Migration may be the most effective way to allow people to diversify income and build resilience where environmental change threatens livelihoods.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [1] Foresight: Migration and Global Environmental Change Final Project Report (Government Office for Science, 2011); available at http://go.nature.com/somswg
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Interpretationcitation
In rapidly growing megacities in delta and coastal floodplain regions in Africa or Asia, hundreds of millions more people may be at risk of flooding by 2060.
“In rapidly growing megacities, such as Dhaka and Lagos, that are located in delta and coastal floodplain regions in Africa or Asia, hundreds of millions more people may be at risk of flooding by 2060 (see 'Urban coastal flood risk').”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites A. VAFEIDIS ET AL.
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Premisecitation
Zimbabwe's political and economic crisis, amplified in rural areas by drought, has contributed to the migration of between 1.5 million and 2 million Zimbabweans to South Africa since 2000.
“For example, Zimbabwe's political and economic crisis, amplified in rural areas by drought, has contributed to the migration of between 1.5 million and 2 million Zimbabweans to South Africa since 2000.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [9] McGregor, J., Marazzi, L. & Mpofu, B. Conflict, Migration and the Environment: the Case of Zimbabwe (Government Office for Science, 2011); available at http://go.nature.com/somswg
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Interpretationcitation
People are as likely to migrate into places of environmental vulnerability as away from them.
“People are as likely to migrate into places of environmental vulnerability as away from them -a point that has been insufficiently acknowledged.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [1] Foresight: Migration and Global Environmental Change Final Project Report (Government Office for Science, 2011); available at http://go.nature.com/somswg
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Interpretationreasoning
Whole populations need not abandon their former homes.
“Whole populations need not abandon their former homes.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
In Africa, the majority of international migrants stay within their subregion.
“In Africa, where the majority of international migrants stay within their subregion, such remittances to home communities quadrupled to nearly US$40 billion between 1990 and 2010, surpassing official development assistance since 2007 (ref.10).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [10] Ratha, D. et al. Leveraging Migration for Africa: Remittances, Skills, and Investments (World Bank, 2011). source
- Interpretationreasoning
Not everyone is able to migrate.
“Not everyone is able to migrate.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
Migration of some individuals can help a community to remain viable in the long run, for example if money and goods are sent back to help build their resilience.
“Migration of some individuals can help a community to remain viable in the long run, for example if money and goods are sent back to help build their resilience.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
- May combine two claims. 11
- Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 2
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationIn a 2008 study, 22% of households affected by tidal-surge floods, and 16% affected by riverbank erosion, moved to urban areas.
“In a 2008 study, 22% of households affected by tidal-surge floods, and 16% affected by riverbank erosion, moved to urban areas 3 .”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [3] Penning-Rowsell, E., Sultana, S. & Thompson, P. Population Movement in Response to Climate Related Hazards in Bangladesh: The 'Last Resort' (Government Office for Science, 2011); available at http://go.nature.com/somswg
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
May combine two claims.
InterpretationcitationMigration will offer opportunities as well as challenges in the context of environmental change.
“It contends that, although environmental change will alter an already complex pattern of human mobility, migration will offer opportunities as well as challenges.”
- Also stated in: § Abstract · hedged
“Our study suggests that the picture is not so one-sided.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [1] Foresight: Migration and Global Environmental Change Final Project Report (Government Office for Science, 2011); available at http://go.nature.com/somswg
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Also stated in: § Abstract · hedged
May combine two claims.
PremisecitationIn Mali, emigration decreased during the severe droughts of 1983-85 alongside a rise in rural poverty.
“In Mali, emigration decreased during the severe droughts of 1983-85 alongside a rise in rural poverty 7 .”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [7] Findley, S. E. Int. Migr. Rev. 28, 539–553 (1994).
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
May combine two claims.
Interpretationnone givenMigration is often expensive, and those most vulnerable to environmental change are usually poor.
“Migration is often expensive, and those most vulnerable to environmental change are usually poor.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningMigrants stretch the capacity of existing infrastructure, especially in low-income countries, and new arrivals are frequently vulnerable.
“Migrants stretch the capacity of existing infrastructure, especially in low-income countries, and new arrivals are frequently vulnerable.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationRemittances to home communities in Africa quadrupled to nearly US$40 billion between 1990 and 2010, surpassing official development assistance since 2007.
“In Africa, where the majority of international migrants stay within their subregion, such remittances to home communities quadrupled to nearly US$40 billion between 1990 and 2010, surpassing official development assistance since 2007 (ref.10).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [10] Ratha, D. et al. Leveraging Migration for Africa: Remittances, Skills, and Investments (World Bank, 2011). source
May combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningEnvironmental change can increase the incentive to move, but it can also limit the capacity to do so.
“Environmental change can increase the incentive to move, but it can also limit the capacity to do so.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationIn 2008, attacks against Zimbabwean migrants in South Africa resulted in 65 deaths and the further displacement of 150,000 people.
“In 2008, attacks against these migrants resulted in 65 deaths and the further displacement of 150,000 people 9 .”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [9] McGregor, J., Marazzi, L. & Mpofu, B. Conflict, Migration and the Environment: the Case of Zimbabwe (Government Office for Science, 2011); available at http://go.nature.com/somswg
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).
InterpretationreasoningMigrants may be socially excluded.
“Furthermore, migrants may be socially excluded and so will need special attention.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationSocio-political factors can restrict movement, as in Somalia where armed conflict restricts movement, or in New Orleans where the evacuation plan for Hurricane Katrina assumed everyone had access to a car.
“There may be confounding socio-political factors, such as in Somalia where armed conflict restricts movement 5 , or in New Orleans, Louisiana, where the evacuation plan for Hurricane Katrina assumed that everyone had access to a car 6 .”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [5] Kolmannskog, V. New Issues in Refugee Research Res. Pap. 180 (UNHCR, 2009); available at http://go.nature.com/pugh4r
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- cites [6] Cutter, S. The Katrina Exodus: Internal Displacements and Unequal Outcomes (Government Office for Science, 2011); available at http://go.nature.com/somswg
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningImpoverished people face a double set of risks: they are unable to move away from environmental threats, and their lack of capital makes them especially vulnerable to environmental changes.
“Impoverished people face a double set of risks.They are unable to move away from environmental threats, and their lack of capital makes them especially vulnerable to environmental changes.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningPolitical instability, poor governance, conflict and social pressures compound the problems of migration and environmental vulnerability.
“Political instability, poor governance, conflict and social pressures compound these problems.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
The paper relies on this without support.
Current greenhouse-gas emissions are already committing the planet to likely climate changes in the next 20 years.
“Current greenhouse-gas emissions are already committing the planet to likely climate changes in the next 20 years.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Future droughts will threaten food security.
“Future droughts will threaten food security”
The paper relies on this without support.
People migrate for complex reasons including economic improvement, joining family, escaping persecution, and removing themselves from environmental or other threats, often temporarily.
“People migrate for complex reasons: to improve incomes; to join family members; to escape persecution; and to remove themselves from environmental or other threats, often temporarily.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The drivers of migration are closely intertwined, so it makes little sense to consider any of them in isolation.
“Many factors influence whether a person or family will migrate.Their effects are closely intertwined, so it makes little sense to consider any of them in isolation.”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The character of climate migration is strongly determined by contextual factors, such as the political or socioeconomic conditions in a region, which affect households' access to alternative in-situ adaptation options, resources to bear the costs of migration, and the existence of migration networks.
“There is an increasing acknowledgment that the character of climate migration is strongly determined by contextual factors, such as the political or socioeconomic conditions in a region, which affect households' access to alternative in-situ adaptation options, resources to bear the costs of migration, and the existence of migration networks (Black et al., 2011).”
From Improving the evidence base: A methodological review of the quantitative climate migration literature (2021) · cites this paper as Black et al., 2011
The Drivers of Migration and Environmental Drivers sections describe intertwined political, economic and household factors, including wealth, moving costs and social networks. The Reality of Migration also gives examples of poverty and conflict limiting movement. Our copy does not specifically say that these conditions determine access to alternative in-situ adaptation options. (LLM, conf=0.85)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Cites
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Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 5
- Foresight: Migration and Global Environmental Change Final Project Report (Government Office for Science, 2011); available at http://go.nature.com/somswg
- Kolmannskog, V. New Issues in Refugee Research Res. Pap. 180 (UNHCR, 2009); available at http://go.nature.com/pugh4r
- Cutter, S. The Katrina Exodus: Internal Displacements and Unequal Outcomes (Government Office for Science, 2011); available at http://go.nature.com/somswg
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- McGregor, J., Marazzi, L. & Mpofu, B. Conflict, Migration and the Environment: the Case of Zimbabwe (Government Office for Science, 2011); available at http://go.nature.com/somswg
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise
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“This process is expected to continue in the coming decades, but capturing this in global scenarios would be a major research undertaking as the drivers of migration and urbanization are complex and variable (28).”
BackgroundHydrogen Storage for Mobility: A Review
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The vulnerability of Indo-Pacific mangrove forests to sea-level rise
Lovelock, C. E., Cahoon, D. R., Friess, D. A., Guntenspergen, G. R., Krauss, K. W., Reef, R., Rogers, K., Saunders, M. I., Sidik, F., Swales, A., et al. (2015) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature15538 · Cited by 948 · see citing works
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Tuholske, C., Caylor, K., Funk, C., Verdin, A., Sweeney, S., Grace, K., Peterson, P., & Evans, T. (2021) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2024792118 · Cited by 772 · see citing works
Natural disasters and population mobility in Bangladesh
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“As this view has spread to become a common element of discussions about climate change impacts (7, 8), it has increasingly diverged from scientific understandings of both migration and adaptive capacity.”
BackgroundMillions projected to be at risk from sea-level rise in the continental United States
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Human Migration in the Era of Climate Change
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“At the same time, the causes of migration are highly contextual, depending on migration history and the dynamics of economic, political, demographic, social and environmental factors at the origin and destination (Black et al. 2011; Martin et al. 2014).”
BackgroundInfluentialSea-level rise and human migration
Hauer, M. E., Fussell, E., Mueller, V., Burkett, M., Call, M., Abel, K., McLeman, R. A., & Wrathall, D. J. (2019) · Nature Reviews Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43017-019-0002-9 · Cited by 445 · see citing works
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Coastal climate change, soil salinity and human migration in Bangladesh
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The Anthropocene and the Global Environmental Crisis
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A meta-analysis of country-level studies on environmental change and migration
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“Many people will be forced to move, while others trapped in poverty will be forced to stay (Black et al. 2011b).”
Warner, K., & Afifi, T. (2013) · Climate and Development · doi:10.1080/17565529.2013.835707 · Cited by 328 · see citing works
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“These results resonate with research that has found that the most vulnerable households and communities are usually also poor (e.g. Paavola 2008; Black et al. 2011; Deressa et al. 2011).”
ResultClimate change, migration and violent conflict: vulnerabilities, pathways and adaptation strategies
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Migration induced by sea-level rise could reshape the US population landscape
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“The most recent and ambitious project in this vein is certainly the Foresight report (Foresight 2011; see also Black et al. 2011).”
BackgroundThe need for bottom-up assessments of climate risks and adaptation in climate-sensitive regions
Conway, D., Nicholls, R. J., Brown, S. A., Tebboth, M. G. L., Adger, W. N., Ahmad, B., Biemans, H., Crick, F., Lutz, A., de Campos, R. S., et al. (2019) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0502-0 · Cited by 257 · see citing works
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“[48] Previous mental health literature suggests that migration of individuals is related to acculturation stress, which is likely to act in the genesis of psychiatric disorders.”
Adapting to Grand Environmental Challenges Through Collective Entrepreneurship
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Country-specific effects of climate variability on human migration
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“2014), and reverse effects can occur in which climate extremes trap vulnerable populations in place (Black et al. 2011; Gray and Mueller 2012a).”
BackgroundInfluentialHow can migration serve adaptation to climate change? Challenges to fleshing out a policy ideal
Gemenne, F., & Blocher, J. M. (2017) · Geographical Journal · doi:10.1111/geoj.12205 · Cited by 218 · see citing works
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A review of estimating population exposure to sea-level rise and the relevance for migration
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“Migration and relocation are ways for people to adapt to environmental and climatic changes (Black et al 2011,Murphy 2015), andmigration has been a way of responding to shifting coastlines throughout human history (Fiddian-Qasmiyeh et al 2016).”
BackgroundEnvironmental Influences on Human Migration in Rural Ecuador
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“…study indicates that both types of climate changes (fast and slow) are likely to influence human migration, although not necessarily in the expected directions; and in fact, it is possible that more potential migrants will be trapped in place than displaced by changing climates (Black et al. 2011).”
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“In such instances, global policy frameworks should be able to protect and support vulnerable people in their decision to move (McNamara et al. 2015; Black et al. 2011a, 2013; Kniveton et al. 2012; Adger et al. 2003).”
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“, conflict or war leading to mass land invasions [47]), the various actors involved (e.”
BackgroundClimate Change and Children’s Mental Health: A Developmental Perspective
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“This finding is consistent with the “migration as adaptation” hypothesis (Black et al., 2011; McLeman and Smit, 2006), i.e. increasing out-migration may indicate decreasing opportunities in the area, which would negatively affect the probability that people from outside will migrate into the area.”
BackgroundResultSmallholder Agriculture and Climate Change
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Climate mobilities: migration, im/mobilities and mobility regimes in a changing climate
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The uneven geography of research on “environmental migration”
Piguet, É., Kaenzig, R., & Guélat, J. (2018) · Population and Environment · doi:10.1007/s11111-018-0296-4 · Cited by 187 · see citing works
“…currently debating new topics regarding environmental migration, including mobility as a coping strategy (Afifi et al. 2015; Bettini et al. 2016; Black et al. 2011; Feli and Castree 2012; Gemenne and Blocher 2017; Loebach 2016; Methmann and Oels 2015; Sakdapolrak et al. 2013; Scheffran et al.…”
BackgroundClimate change hotspots mapping: what have we learned?
de Sherbinin, A. (2013) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0900-7 · Cited by 183 · see citing works
“There has been considerable policy interest in the impact of climate change on population dynamics, and particularly on migration (Black et al. 2011; de Sherbinin et al. 2011).”
BackgroundIs adaptation reducing vulnerability or redistributing it?
Atteridge, A., & Remling, E. (2017) · Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change · doi:10.1002/wcc.500 · Cited by 181 · see citing works
Rockenbauch, T., & Sakdapolrak, P. (2017) · Ecology and Society · doi:10.5751/es-09009-220110 · Cited by 179 · see citing works
Feeling the heat: Climate risks and the cost of sovereign borrowing
Beirne, J., Renzhi, N., & Volz, U. (2021) · International Review of Economics & Finance · doi:10.1016/j.iref.2021.06.019 · Cited by 180 · see citing works
Focus on environmental risks and migration: causes and consequences
Adger, W. N., Arnell, N. W., Black, R., Dercon, S., Geddes, A., & Thomas, D. S. G. (2015) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/6/060201 · Cited by 178 · see citing works
“The principal drivers of migration outcomes are those of the scale, connectivity and openness of the economy in the regions of the world, along with the policy stance and governance of that economy, its labour markets and social tensions and conflict (see Black et al 2011a on the global drivers).”
BackgroundSelf-citationPutting trapped populations into place: climate change and inter-district migration flows in Zambia
Nawrotzki, R., & DeWaard, J. (2017) · Regional Environmental Change · doi:10.1007/s10113-017-1224-3 · Cited by 175 · see citing works
“…went beyond the important and increasingly well-documented phenomenon of “trapped populations,” comprised of those most vulnerable to climate change (Black et al. 2011b; Foresight 2011; Gray andMueller 2012b), to consider the characteristics of places that trap, or immobilize, populations in the…”
BackgroundInfluentialSinatra, G. M., & Lombardi, D. (2020) · Educational Psychologist · doi:10.1080/00461520.2020.1730181 · Cited by 183 · see citing works
Being(s) framed: The means and ends of framing environmental migrants
Ransan‐Cooper, H., Farbotko, C., McNamara, K. E., Thornton, F., & Chevalier, É. (2015) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.07.013 · Cited by 168 · see citing works
Usable Science for Managing the Risks of Sea‐Level Rise
Kopp, R. E., Gilmore, E., Little, C. M., Lorenzo‐Trueba, J., Ramenzoni, V. C., & Sweet, W. (2019) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2018ef001145 · Cited by 172 · see citing works
“The significance of environmental or natural resources among the other factors in their decision may range from large to insignificant (Black et al., 2011).”
BackgroundMigration influenced by environmental change in Africa: a systematic review of empirical evidence
Borderon, M., Sakdapolrak, P., Muttarak, R., Kebede, E., Pagogna, R., & Sporer, E. (2019) · Demographic Research · doi:10.4054/demres.2019.41.18 · Cited by 161 · see citing works
Hoffmann, R., Šedová, B., & Vinke, K. (2021) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102367 · Cited by 159 · see citing works
“…migration is strongly determined by contextual factors, such as the political or socioeconomic conditions in a region, which affect households’ access to alternative in-situ adaptation options, resources to bear the costs of migration, and the existence of migration networks (Black et al., 2011).”
BackgroundToward a climate mobilities research agenda: Intersectionality, immobility, and policy responses
Cundill, G., Singh, C., Adger, W. N., de Campos, R. S., Vincent, K., Tebboth, M. G. L., & Maharjan, A. (2021) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102315 · Cited by 174 · see citing works
“It is therefore imperative that climate mobilities research moves beyond simple narratives of migration as an undesirable social trend to be managed, or as a symptom of vulnerability for communities (Black et al., 2011; Upadhyay et al., 2015).”
BackgroundInfluentialVinke, K., Bergmann, J., Blocher, J., Upadhyay, H., & Hoffmann, R. (2020) · Migration Studies · doi:10.1093/migration/mnaa029 · Cited by 162 · see citing works
Rademacher‐Schulz, C., Schraven, B., & Mahama, E. S. (2013) · Climate and Development · doi:10.1080/17565529.2013.830955 · Cited by 153 · see citing works
Climate change increases the risk of fisheries conflict
Mendenhall, E., Hendrix, C. S., Nyman, E., Roberts, P. M., Hoopes, J. R., Watson, J., Lam, V. W. Y., & Sumaila, U. (2020) · Marine Policy · doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2020.103954 · Cited by 120 · see citing works
“Migration is understood to be an effective adaptation strategy for coping with climate change, and fishing and aquaculture livelihoods can serve as "pull" factors drawing migrants to new locations [71-72].”
BackgroundWilmsen, B., & Webber, M. J. (2014) · Geoforum · doi:10.1016/j.geoforum.2014.10.016 · Cited by 147 · see citing works
Buchori, I., Pramitasari, A., Sugiri, A., Maryono, M., Basuki, Y., & Sejati, A. W. (2018) · Ocean & Coastal Management · doi:10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2018.07.017 · Cited by 147 · see citing works
Laurice Jamero, M., Onuki, M., Esteban, M., Billones-Sensano, X. K., Tan, N., Nellas, A., Takagi, H., Thao, N. D., & Valenzuela, V. P. (2017) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate3344 · Cited by 144 · see citing works
Islam, M. R. (2017) · Social Indicators Research · doi:10.1007/s11205-017-1563-y · Cited by 147 · see citing works
Neoliberalising Adaptation to Environmental Change: Foresight or Foreclosure?
Felli, R., & Castree, N. (2012) · Environment and Planning A Economy and Space · doi:10.1068/a44680 · Cited by 143 · see citing works
“Its lead authors have recently published a summary of the main conclusions in the leading scientific journal Nature (Black et al, 2011), and the report has already received extensive media coverage.”
BackgroundEvidence of Climate Change Coping and Adaptation Practices by Smallholder Farmers in Northern Ghana
Antwi‐Agyei, P., & Nyantakyi‐Frimpong, H. (2021) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su13031308 · Cited by 143 · see citing works
Coastal Migration due to 21st Century Sea‐Level Rise
Lincke, D., & Hinkel, J. (2021) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2020ef001965 · Cited by 145 · see citing works
The centrality of social ties to climate migration and mental health
Torres, J. M., & Casey, J. A. (2017) · BMC Public Health · doi:10.1186/s12889-017-4508-0 · Cited by 139 · see citing works
Mapping global variation in human mobility
Kraemer, M. U. G., Sadilek, A., Zhang, Q., Marchal, N., Tuli, G., Cohn, E. L., Hswen, Y., Perkins, T. A., Smith, D. L., Reiner, R. C., et al. (2020) · Nature Human Behaviour · doi:10.1038/s41562-020-0875-0 · Cited by 137 · see citing works
Ayeb-Karlsson, S., Smith, C. D., & Kniveton, D. (2018) · Ambio · doi:10.1007/s13280-017-1007-6 · Cited by 136 · see citing works
“…of a growing number of ‘environmental refugees’ (Myers 1997; Bogardi and Warner 2009) has been supplanted by a more sceptical common recognition that migration is driven by various factors, of which climate change impacts may be one (Kibreab 1997; Castles 2003; Black et al. 2011a; Foresight 2011).”
BackgroundMultidimensional analysis of global climate change: a review
Bandh, S. A., Shafi, S., Peerzada, M., Rehman, T., Bashir, S., Wani, S. A., & Dar, R. (2021) · Environmental Science and Pollution Research · doi:10.1007/s11356-021-13139-7 · Cited by 145 · see citing works
Thorn, J., Thornton, T. F., & Helfgott, A. (2015) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.12.009 · Cited by 134 · see citing works
Albert, S., Bronen, R., Tooler, N., Leon, J. X., Yee, D., Ash, J., Boseto, D. T., & Grinham, A. R. (2017) · Regional Environmental Change · doi:10.1007/s10113-017-1256-8 · Cited by 135 · see citing works
“Rapid sea-level rise does not simply influence the bio-physical system but also has deep and complex interactions with cultural and socio-political factors (Black et al. 2011).”
BackgroundPoverty, Livelihoods and Sustainable Development
(IPCC), I. P. O. C. C. (2023) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009325844.010 · Cited by 216 · see citing works
Keeping People in Place: Political Factors of (Im)mobility and Climate Change
Zickgraf, C. (2019) · Social Sciences · doi:10.3390/socsci8080228 · Cited by 134 · see citing works
“In doing so, the report, and its consequent publications, laid the foundation for targeted research into those people who do not move in contexts of environmental degradation (Black et al. 2011, 2013; Thiede and Brown 2013; Black and Collyer 2014).”
BackgroundEmerging migration flows in a changing climate in dryland Africa
Kniveton, D. R., Smith, C. D., & Black, R. (2012) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate1447 · Cited by 130 · see citing works
Self-citationInternational migration and climate adaptation in an era of hardening borders
McLeman, R. (2019) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0634-2 · Cited by 126 · see citing works
Ayeb-Karlsson, S., Kniveton, D., & Cannon, T. (2020) · Palgrave Communications · doi:10.1057/s41599-020-0443-2 · Cited by 129 · see citing works
Planning for Community Relocations Due to Climate Change in Fiji
McNamara, K. E., & Combes, H. J. D. (2015) · International Journal of Disaster Risk Science · doi:10.1007/s13753-015-0065-2 · Cited by 128 · see citing works
“For some researchers, migration is pitched as an adaptation response to the impacts of climate change (Black et al. 2011), while for others it is portrayed as a negative impact of climate change and a failure of in situ adaptation efforts (Felli and Castree 2012).”
BackgroundClimate change as a migration driver from rural and urban Mexico
Nawrotzki, R., Hunter, L. M., Runfola, D. M., & Riosmena, F. (2015) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/11/114023 · Cited by 125 · see citing works
“This diversification strategy may be useful in times of climate stress (Black et al 2011).”
Millock, K. E. (2015) · Annual Review of Resource Economics · doi:10.1146/annurev-resource-100814-125031 · Cited by 127 · see citing works
Koubi, V., Spilker, G., Schaffer, L., & Böhmelt, T. (2016) · Population and Environment · doi:10.1007/s11111-016-0258-7 · Cited by 125 · see citing works
Securing blue wealth: The need for a special sustainable development goal for the ocean and coasts
Visbeck, M. H., Kronfeld-Goharani, U., Neumann, B., Rickels, W., Schmidt, J. O., van Doorn, E., Matz‐Lück, N., Ott, K., & Quaas, M. F. (2014) · Marine Policy · doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2014.03.005 · Cited by 123 · see citing works
“Given that this affects all dimensions of human security, combined effects could induce long-term migration [36], [37], [38].”
BackgroundTemporary migration and climate variation in eastern Africa
Mueller, V., Sheriff, G. D., Dou, X., & Gray, C. (2019) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104704 · Cited by 125 · see citing works
“If availability of these outside opportunities, rather than household income, is the binding constraint for the migration decision, then efforts to reduce migration costs to assist the “trapped populations” alluded to by Black et al. (2011) and Black and Collyer (2014), may have little impact.”
BackgroundBettini, G. (2014) · Critical Studies on Security · doi:10.1080/21624887.2014.909225 · Cited by 122 · see citing works
The complex decision-making of climate-induced relocation: adaptation and loss and damage
McNamara, K. E., Bronen, R., Fernando, N., & Klepp, S. (2016) · Climate Policy · doi:10.1080/14693062.2016.1248886 · Cited by 116 · see citing works
Salinization in large river deltas: Drivers, impacts and socio-hydrological feedbacks
Rahman, M. M., Penny, G., Mondal, M. S., Zaman, M. H., Kryston, A., Salehin, M., Nahar, Q., Islam, M. S., Bolster, D., Tank, J. L., et al. (2019) · Water Security · doi:10.1016/j.wasec.2019.100024 · Cited by 120 · see citing works
Climate Change, Inequality, and Human Migration
Burzyński, M., Deuster, C., Docquier, F., & de Mélo, J. (2019) · Journal of the European Economic Association · doi:10.1093/jeea/jvab054 · Cited by 135 · see citing works
From climate migration to anthropocene mobilities: shifting the debate
Baldwin, A., Fröhlich, C., & Rothe, D. (2019) · Mobilities · doi:10.1080/17450101.2019.1620510 · Cited by 114 · see citing works
“…conceptual terrain, the ensuing discussion has evolved from one focused on millions of ‘climate refugees’ (Gemenne 2011; Piguet, Pecoud, and de Guchteneire 2011) into one in which migration is promoted as a possible adaptive response to climate change (McLeman and Smit 2006; Black et al. 2011a).”
BackgroundNawrotzki, R., & Bakhtsiyarava, M. (2016) · Population Space and Place · doi:10.1002/psp.2033 · Cited by 115 · see citing works
“Table 3 shows few significant climate coefficients, consistent with the notion that climate effects on international migration are usually indirect in nature and difficult to detect (Black et al., 2011a).”
InfluentialBettini, G., Nash, S. L., & Gioli, G. (2016) · Geographical Journal · doi:10.1111/geoj.12192 · Cited by 112 · see citing works
“The idea that migration can represent a legitimate adaptation strategy has gained ground (Black et al. 2011; Tacoli 2009; UK Government Office for Science 2011; Warner et al. 2012), witnessing a partial but important relocation of migration from the domains of security and humanitarian emergency management to that of…”
BackgroundInfluentialClimate change adaptation planning for Global South megacities: the case of Dhaka
Araos, M., Ford, J. D., Berrang‐Ford, L., Biesbroek, R. G., & Moser, S. (2016) · Journal of Environmental Policy & Planning · doi:10.1080/1523908x.2016.1264873 · Cited by 109 · see citing works
Untapped potential of health impact assessment
Winkler, M. S., Krieger, G. R., Divall, M. J., Cissé, G., Wielga, M., Singer, B. H., Tanner, M., & Utzinger, J. (2013) · Bulletin of the World Health Organization · doi:10.2471/blt.12.112318 · Cited by 110 · see citing works
Sea-Level Rise Impacts and Responses: A Global Perspective
Brown, S. A., Nicholls, R. J., Woodroffe, C. D., et al. (2012) · Coastal research library · doi:10.1007/978-94-007-5234-4_5 · Cited by 109 · see citing works
Trapped or Voluntary? Non-Migration Despite Climate Risks
Mallick, B., & Schanze, J. (2020) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su12114718 · Cited by 107 · see citing works
International migration and health: it is time to go beyond conventional theoretical frameworks
Hossin, M. Z. (2020) · BMJ Global Health · doi:10.1136/bmjgh-2019-001938 · Cited by 105 · see citing works
The impact of climate change on the labor allocation: Empirical evidence from China
Huang, K., Zhao, H., Huang, J., Wang, J., & FINDLAY, C. C. (2020) · Journal of Environmental Economics and Management · doi:10.1016/j.jeem.2020.102376 · Cited by 108 · see citing works
“2 Climate change is more likely to damage climate-exposed sectors than sectors less vulnerable to high temperatures (Mendelsohn, 2008; Burke et al., 2015b; Dellink et al., 2017). The disproportionate damage created by climate change generates a gap in marginal returns to labor across sectors. As a result, individuals…”
BackgroundInfluentialSocioeconomic consequences of climate induced human displacement and migration in Bangladesh
Islam, M. R., & Shamsuddoha, M. (2017) · International Sociology · doi:10.1177/0268580917693173 · Cited by 104 · see citing works
On climate variability and civil war in Asia
Wischnath, G., & Buhaug, H. (2014) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-013-1004-0 · Cited by 104 · see citing works
Climate change impact on migration, travel, travel destinations and the tourism industry
Semenza, J. C., & Ebi, K. L. (2019) · Journal of Travel Medicine · doi:10.1093/jtm/taz026 · Cited by 104 · see citing works
“They can also interact with climate change, which can itself be a trigger for migration (Figure 2).(20,21) Although environmental drivers do not appear to have been the most significant contributor to international migration to date,(22,23) migration in response to the consequences of climate change can be a pragmatic…”
BackgroundWhen the disaster strikes: Gendered (im)mobility in Bangladesh
Ayeb-Karlsson, S. (2020) · Climate Risk Management · doi:10.1016/j.crm.2020.100237 · Cited by 103 · see citing works
Fröhlich, C. (2016) · Contemporary Levant · doi:10.1080/20581831.2016.1149355 · Cited by 104 · see citing works
Béné, C., Frankenberger, T., & Nelson, S. (2018) · Human Rights Documents online · doi:10.1163/2210-7975_hrd-0148-2015183 · Cited by 104 · see citing works
“As documented in the literature (Black et al. 2011), migration can lead to positive changes but can – and does – also lead to negative outcomes.”
BackgroundIde, T. (2018) · Current Climate Change Reports · doi:10.1007/s40641-018-0115-0 · Cited by 106 · see citing works
Climate change increases resource-constrained international immobility
Benveniste, H., Oppenheimer, M., & Fleurbaey, M. (2022) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-022-01401-w · Cited by 102 · see citing works
Khavarian-Garmsir, A. R., Ahmad, P., Hataminejad, H., & Farhoodi, R. (2019) · Sustainable Cities and Society · doi:10.1016/j.scs.2019.101480 · Cited by 101 · see citing works
- Authors
- Black, R., Bennett, S. R. G., Thomas, S. M., & Beddington, J. R.
- Affiliations
- University of Sussex (GB)
- Government of the United Kingdom (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Black, Richard
- Bennett, Stephen R. G.
- Thomas, Sandy M.
- Beddington, John R.
- ORCID
- Black, Richard
- Venue
- Nature
- Published
- 2011-10-20
- Volume
- 478
- Issue
- 7370
- Pages
- 447-449
- ISSN
- 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-4687
- OpenAlex
- W2032266442
- Cited by
- 1,043
- References
- 8
- Citations by year
- 2026: 101 · 2025: 81 · 2024: 89 · 2023: 106 · 2022: 98 · 2021: 106 · 2020: 101 · 2019: 85 · 2018: 54 · 2017: 62 · 2016: 46 · 2015: 39 · 2014: 32 · 2013: 22 · 2012: 21
- FWCI
- 80.07
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- Locations
- Nature (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- SOAS Research Online (SOAS University of London) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Migration and Labor Dynamics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics › Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Keywords
- human migration, environmental change, adaptation, mobility, climate change, coping strategies
- MeSH terms
- Acclimatization, Disasters, Emigration and Immigration, Environment, Humans, Policy Making, Politics, Poverty, Risk, Socioeconomic Factors, Urban Population, Floods, Climate Change
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