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Palaeogeographic controls on climate and proxy interpretation

Lunt, Daniel J., Farnsworth, Alex, Loptson, Claire, Foster, Gavin L., Markwick, Paul, O'Brien, Charlotte L., Pancost, Richard D., Robinson, Stuart A., Wrobel, Neil·2016·Climate of the Past
DOI 10.5194/cp-12-1181-2016

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Abstract

Abstract. During the period from approximately 150 to 35 million years ago, the Cretaceous–Paleocene–Eocene (CPE), the Earth was in a “greenhouse” state with little or no ice at either pole. It was also a period of considerable global change, from the warmest periods of the mid-Cretaceous, to the threshold of icehouse conditions at the end of the Eocene. However, the relative contribution of palaeogeographic change, solar change, and carbon cycle change to these climatic variations is unknown. Here, making use of recent advances in computing power, and a set of unique palaeogeographic maps, we carry out an ensemble of 19 General Circulation Model simulations covering this period, one simulation per stratigraphic stage. By maintaining atmospheric CO2 concentration constant across the simulations, we are able to identify the contribution from palaeogeographic and solar forcing to global change across the CPE, and explore the underlying mechanisms. We find that global mean surface temperature is remarkably constant across the simulations, resulting from a cancellation of opposing trends from solar and palaeogeographic change. However, there are significant modelled variations on a regional scale. The stratigraphic stage–stage transitions which exhibit greatest climatic change are associated with transitions in the mode of ocean circulation, themselves often associated with changes in ocean gateways, and amplified by feedbacks related to emissivity and planetary albedo. We also find some control on global mean temperature from continental area and global mean orography. Our results have important implications for the interpretation of single-site palaeo proxy records. In particular, our results allow the non-CO2 (i.e. palaeogeographic and solar constant) components of proxy records to be removed, leaving a more global component associated with carbon cycle change. This “adjustment factor” is used to adjust sea surface temperatures, as the deep ocean is not fully equilibrated in the model. The adjustment factor is illustrated for seven key sites in the CPE, and applied to proxy data from Falkland Plateau, and we provide data so that similar adjustments can be made to any site and for any time period within the CPE. Ultimately, this will enable isolation of the CO2-forced climate signal to be extracted from multiple proxy records from around the globe, allowing an evaluation of the regional signals and extent of polar amplification in response to CO2 changes during the CPE. Finally, regions where the adjustment factor is constant throughout the CPE could indicate places where future proxies could be targeted in order to reconstruct the purest CO2-induced temperature change, where the complicating contributions of other processes are minimised. Therefore, combined with other considerations, this work could provide useful information for supporting targets for drilling localities and outcrop studies.

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Figures

Figure 1 Climate evolution over the last 150 million years, as expressed by the benthic oxygen isotope records of Friedrich et al. (2012) and Cramer et al. (2009) (coloured dots), and a surface temperature record (H13C09) produced by applying the methodologies of Hansen et al. (2013) to the Cramer et al. (2009) 18 O benthic data, and applying a 10-point running average (grey line).
Figure 1 Climate evolution over the last 150 million years, as expressed by the benthic oxygen isotope records of Friedrich et al. (2012) and Cramer et al. (2009) (coloured dots), and a surface temperature record (H13C09) produced by applying the methodologies of Hansen et al. (2013) to the Cramer et al. (2009) 18 O benthic data, and applying a 10-point running average (grey line).CC-BY · From the PDF
Figure 2 The values of solar constant since the earliest Cretaceous, calculated from Gough (1981) and used for the CPE simulations in this paper (green line), and from Caldeira and Kasting (1992) (orange line). Horizontal line shows the modern value.
Figure 2 The values of solar constant since the earliest Cretaceous, calculated from Gough (1981) and used for the CPE simulations in this paper (green line), and from Caldeira and Kasting (1992) (orange line). Horizontal line shows the modern value.CC-BY · From the PDF
Figure 3 CO2 as compiled by Honisch et al. (2012) (small dots). Overlain is the CO 2 concentration in each simulation described in this paper (red dots). The open blue circles show CO 2 concentration in a set of model simulations of the Oligocene and Neogene, which are not discussed in this paper but are provided for reference. Horizontal black lines show 280, 560, and 1120 ppmv.
Figure 3 CO2 as compiled by Honisch et al. (2012) (small dots). Overlain is the CO 2 concentration in each simulation described in this paper (red dots). The open blue circles show CO 2 concentration in a set of model simulations of the Oligocene and Neogene, which are not discussed in this paper but are provided for reference. Horizontal black lines show 280, 560, and 1120 ppmv.CC-BY · From the PDF
Image 4
CC-BY · From the PDF
Image 5
CC-BY · From the PDF
Figure 4 Modelled evolution of global mean ocean temperature [ C] in each CPE simulation at three depths: (a) surface (5 m), (b) 670 m, (c) 2.7 km.
Figure 4 Modelled evolution of global mean ocean temperature [ C] in each CPE simulation at three depths: (a) surface (5 m), (b) 670 m, (c) 2.7 km.CC-BY · From the PDF
Figure 5 The global MAT for each Stage of the CPE at 4 CO2 (black filled circles) plotted over a surface temperature record produced by applying the methodologies of Hansen et al. (2013) to the Cramer et al. (2009) 18 O benthic data, and applying a 10-point running average (grey line). The open circles show model results for the Oligocene and Neogene, with lower CO 2 , which are not discussed in this paper but are provided for reference. The modelled trend (ignoring the outlying Berriasian stage) is shown as a solid line, and the expected trend assuming solar forcing only is shown as a pair of dashed lines which start/end at the beginning/end of the modelled trend.
Figure 5 The global MAT for each Stage of the CPE at 4 CO2 (black filled circles) plotted over a surface temperature record produced by applying the methodologies of Hansen et al. (2013) to the Cramer et al. (2009) 18 O benthic data, and applying a 10-point running average (grey line). The open circles show model results for the Oligocene and Neogene, with lower CO 2 , which are not discussed in this paper but are provided for reference. The modelled trend (ignoring the outlying Berriasian stage) is shown as a solid line, and the expected trend assuming solar forcing only is shown as a pair of dashed lines which start/end at the beginning/end of the modelled trend.CC-BY · From the PDF
Figure 6 (a-r) Annual mean surface air temperature (at 1.5 m) for each geological Stage, expressed as an anomaly relative to the previous Stage. (a) Priabonian-Bartonian, (b) Bartonian-Lutetian, (c) Lutetian-Ypresian, (d) Ypresian-Thanetian (e) Thanetian-Selandian, (f) Selandian-Danian, (g) Danian-Maastrichtian, (h) Maastrichtian-Campanian, (i) Campanian-Santonian, (j) Santonian-Coniacian, (k) Coniacian-Turonian, (l) Turonian-Cenomanian, (m) Cenomanian-Albian, (n) Albian-Aptian, (o) Aptian-Barremian, (p) BarremianHauterivian, (q) Hauterivian-Valanginian, (r) Valanginian-Berriasian. (s) Annual mean surface air temperature (at 1.5 m) for the Berriasian stage.
Figure 6 (a-r) Annual mean surface air temperature (at 1.5 m) for each geological Stage, expressed as an anomaly relative to the previous Stage. (a) Priabonian-Bartonian, (b) Bartonian-Lutetian, (c) Lutetian-Ypresian, (d) Ypresian-Thanetian (e) Thanetian-Selandian, (f) Selandian-Danian, (g) Danian-Maastrichtian, (h) Maastrichtian-Campanian, (i) Campanian-Santonian, (j) Santonian-Coniacian, (k) Coniacian-Turonian, (l) Turonian-Cenomanian, (m) Cenomanian-Albian, (n) Albian-Aptian, (o) Aptian-Barremian, (p) BarremianHauterivian, (q) Hauterivian-Valanginian, (r) Valanginian-Berriasian. (s) Annual mean surface air temperature (at 1.5 m) for the Berriasian stage.CC-BY · From the PDF
Figure 7 Global annual mean surace air temperature (at 1.5 m) in each model simulation (black dots). Also shown as vertical lines is the contribution to temperature difference between each consecutive Stage, from changes over land (green), over ocean (blue), and over regions which switch between land and ocean (red). Also shown are the global mean of all simulations (dotted line), and trend across all simulations except the Berriasian (dashed line, as in Fig. 5).
Figure 7 Global annual mean surace air temperature (at 1.5 m) in each model simulation (black dots). Also shown as vertical lines is the contribution to temperature difference between each consecutive Stage, from changes over land (green), over ocean (blue), and over regions which switch between land and ocean (red). Also shown are the global mean of all simulations (dotted line), and trend across all simulations except the Berriasian (dashed line, as in Fig. 5).CC-BY · From the PDF
Figure 8 Plots showing the relationship between Stage-Stage changes in (a) ocean near-surface (1.5 m) air temperature (SAT) and continental SAT, (b) continental area and global mean SAT, (c) global mean orography and continental SAT, (d) surface temperature due to emissivity change and global mean surface temperature, and (e) surface temperature due to albedo change and global mean surface temperature. Note that the continental and ocean SAT values are the relative contribution to the global mean values.
Figure 8 Plots showing the relationship between Stage-Stage changes in (a) ocean near-surface (1.5 m) air temperature (SAT) and continental SAT, (b) continental area and global mean SAT, (c) global mean orography and continental SAT, (d) surface temperature due to emissivity change and global mean surface temperature, and (e) surface temperature due to albedo change and global mean surface temperature. Note that the continental and ocean SAT values are the relative contribution to the global mean values.CC-BY · From the PDF
Figure 9 (a) The palaeolocation of seven key sites used for reconstructing climate of the CPE. Large black dots represent the modern location. Small black dots represent the location at each Stage post the CPE, and coloured dots represent the location at each Stage during the CPE, for those Stages that the modern ocean crust was present. (b) Climate evolution across the CPE, simulated by the model, as experienced at the same seven sites. Filled (open) symbols indicate that a particular site is marine (terrestrial) at a particular Stage.
Figure 9 (a) The palaeolocation of seven key sites used for reconstructing climate of the CPE. Large black dots represent the modern location. Small black dots represent the location at each Stage post the CPE, and coloured dots represent the location at each Stage during the CPE, for those Stages that the modern ocean crust was present. (b) Climate evolution across the CPE, simulated by the model, as experienced at the same seven sites. Filled (open) symbols indicate that a particular site is marine (terrestrial) at a particular Stage.CC-BY · From the PDF
Figure 10 (a) Proxy temperature data (black asterixes) at Falkland plateau (Site 511) from TEX 86 . Eocene data are from Liu et al. (2009), and Cretaceous data from Jenkyns et al. (2012). Black line shows the line of best fit. Also shown is the modelled temperature evolution at Falkland plateau (green line), i.e. the adjustment factor. In (b) , the proxy data have been adjusted using the model output, relative to either the earliest (light blue) or latest (red) proxy data point. Blue and red lines show the respective lines of best fit. TEX 86 temperatures are calculated using the TEX H 86 -SST calibration of Kim et al. (2010).
Figure 10 (a) Proxy temperature data (black asterixes) at Falkland plateau (Site 511) from TEX 86 . Eocene data are from Liu et al. (2009), and Cretaceous data from Jenkyns et al. (2012). Black line shows the line of best fit. Also shown is the modelled temperature evolution at Falkland plateau (green line), i.e. the adjustment factor. In (b) , the proxy data have been adjusted using the model output, relative to either the earliest (light blue) or latest (red) proxy data point. Blue and red lines show the respective lines of best fit. TEX 86 temperatures are calculated using the TEX H 86 -SST calibration of Kim et al. (2010).CC-BY · From the PDF
Figure 11 (a) Total temperature change across the CPE (maximum temperature in the CPE minus minimum temperature in the CPE, C) for all modern locations, due to changes in palaeogeography and solar constant. Missing data (white) is where the Getech Plc plate model indicates that the modern location was not present across all the CPE. Also shown as black dots are the seven locations in Fig. 9. CPE is defined as from the early Cretaceous (Berriasian) to the late Eocene (Priabonian). (b-d) are similar, but show the change (b) from the late Cretaceous (Cenomanian) to the late Eocene (Priabonian), (c) from the early Paleocene (Danian) to the late Eocene (Priabonian), (d) from the early Eocene (Ypresian) to the late Eocene (Priabonian).
Figure 11 (a) Total temperature change across the CPE (maximum temperature in the CPE minus minimum temperature in the CPE, C) for all modern locations, due to changes in palaeogeography and solar constant. Missing data (white) is where the Getech Plc plate model indicates that the modern location was not present across all the CPE. Also shown as black dots are the seven locations in Fig. 9. CPE is defined as from the early Cretaceous (Berriasian) to the late Eocene (Priabonian). (b-d) are similar, but show the change (b) from the late Cretaceous (Cenomanian) to the late Eocene (Priabonian), (c) from the early Paleocene (Danian) to the late Eocene (Priabonian), (d) from the early Eocene (Ypresian) to the late Eocene (Priabonian).CC-BY · From the PDF

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Cited by

See all 145

Metadata

Authors
Lunt, D. J., Farnsworth, A., Loptson, C., Foster, G. L., Markwick, P., O'Brien, C. L., Pancost, R. D., Robinson, S. A., & Wrobel, N.
ORCID
Venue
Climate of the Past
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Published
2016-05-20
Volume
12
Issue
5
Pages
1181-1198
ISSN
1814-9332
DOI
10.5194/cp-12-1181-2016
Cited by
145
References
3
Language
en
Licence
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ (vor)
Funders
Natural Environment Research Council (NE/K014757/1, NE/I005714/1, NE/I005501/2, NE/K012479/1)

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

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CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Palaeogeographic controls on climate and proxy interpretation. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.5194/cp-12-1181-2016
The paper
Lunt, D. J., Farnsworth, A., Loptson, C., Foster, G. L., Markwick, P., O'Brien, C. L., Pancost, R. D., Robinson, S. A., & Wrobel, N. (2016). Palaeogeographic controls on climate and proxy interpretation. Climate of the Past. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1181-2016