Absolute seasonal temperature estimates from clumped isotopes in bivalve shells suggest warm and variable greenhouse climate
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Abstract
Seasonal variability in sea surface temperatures plays a fundamental role in climate dynamics and species distribution. Seasonal bias can also severely compromise the accuracy of mean annual temperature reconstructions. It is therefore essential to better understand seasonal variability in climates of the past. Many reconstructions of climate in deep time neglect this issue and rely on controversial assumptions, such as estimates of sea water oxygen isotope composition. Here we present absolute seasonal temperature reconstructions based on clumped isotope measurements in bivalve shells which, critically, do not rely on these assumptions. We reconstruct highly precise monthly sea surface temperatures at around 50 °N latitude from individual oyster and rudist shells of the Campanian greenhouse period about 78 million years ago, when the seasonal range at 50 °N comprised 15 to 27 °C. In agreement with fully coupled climate model simulations, we find that greenhouse climates outside the tropics were warmer and more seasonal than previously thought. We conclude that seasonal bias and assumptions about seawater composition can distort temperature reconstructions and our understanding of past greenhouse climates.
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High-resolution Δ47 sclerochronology has identified increased seasonality and warmth in Late Cretaceous mid-latitude oceans.
“Already, high-resolution 47 sclerochronology has identified increased seasonality and warmth in the Late Cretaceous mid-latitude oceans (de Winter et al. 2021).”
From Frontiers of Carbonate Clumped Isotope Thermometry (2023) · cites this paper as de Winter et al. 2021
The paper describes monthly resolved Δ47 reconstructions from Campanian shells in southern Sweden (46 ± 3°N paleolatitude). Its Comparison between specimens section reports a 15–27 °C seasonal range and calls the climate warmer and highly seasonal; Data-model comparison reports temperatures up to ~8 °C warmer than today. But the Results say modeled seasonality under the better-fitting 4× CO₂ scenario resembles the present, rather than establishing increased ocean seasonality relative to today. Page numbers were unavailable in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.84)
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de Winter, N. D., Tindall, J., Johnson, A. L. A., Goudsmit-Harzevoort, B., Wichern, N., Kaskes, P., Claeys, P., Huygen, F., van Leeuwen, S. V., Metcalfe, B., et al. (2024) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.adl6717 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Self-citationKřížová, B., Consorti, L., Cardelli, S. M., Schmitt, K., Brombin, V., Franceschi, M., Tunis, G., Bonini, L., & Frijia, G. (2023) · Palaeogeography Palaeoclimatology Palaeoecology · doi:10.1016/j.palaeo.2023.111995 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Wang, T., Hoffmann, R., He, S., Zhang, Q., Li, G., Randrianaly, H. N., Xie, J., Yue, Y., & Ding, L. (2023) · Global and Planetary Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104220 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
On the role of tectonics in stimulating the Cretaceous diversification of mammals
Weaver, L. N., Kelson, J. R., Holder, R., Niemi, N. A., & Badgley, C. E. (2023) · Earth-Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2023.104630 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Vickers, M. L., Jones, M. T., Longman, J., Evans, D., Ullmann, C. V., Stokke, E. W., Vickers, M., Frieling, J., Harper, D. T., Clementi, V. J., et al. (2024) · Climate of the past · doi:10.5194/cp-20-1-2024 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Self-citationHöche, N., Walliser, E. O., & Schöne, B. R. (2022) · Frontiers in Earth Science · doi:10.3389/feart.2021.781305 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Kniest, J., Davies, A., Brugger, J., Fiebig, J., Bernecker, M., Todd, J. A., Hickler, T., Voigt, S., Woodland, A., & Raddatz, J. (2024) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-024-01491-8 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Clumped isotope evidence for Early Jurassic extreme polar warmth and high climate sensitivity
Letulle, T., Suan, G., Daëron, M., Rogov, M., Lécuyer, C., Vinçon-Laugier, A., Reynard, B., Montagnac, G., Lutikov, O., & Schlögl, J. (2022) · Climate of the Past · doi:10.5194/cp-18-435-2022 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Radiolitid rudists: an underestimated archive for Cretaceous climate reconstruction?
Schmitt, K., Huck, S., Krummacker, M., de Winter, N. J., Godet, A., Claeys, P., & Heimhofer, U. (2022) · Lethaia · doi:10.18261/let.55.4.4 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Self-citationMouchi, V., Andrus, C. F. T., Checa, A. G., Elliot, M., Griesshaber, E., Hausmann, N., Huyghe, D., Lartaud, F., Peharda, M., & de Winter, N. J. (2025) · Limnology and Oceanography Letters · doi:10.1002/lol2.10461 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Posenato, R., Crippa, G., de Winter, N. J., Claeys, P., Goderis, S., Frijia, G., & Brombin, V. (2024) · Palaeogeography Palaeoclimatology Palaeoecology · doi:10.1016/j.palaeo.2024.112329 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Self-citationLeclerc, N., Burchell, M., Clark, T., Kuehn, S. D., Coupland, G., & Schöne, B. R. (2023) · Environmental Archaeology · doi:10.1080/14614103.2022.2154452 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Molluscan isotope sclerochronology in marine palaeoclimatology: Taxa, technique and timespan issues
Johnson, A. L. A., Schöne, B. R., Petersen, S., de Winter, N. J., Dowsett, H. J., Cudennec, J.-F., Harper, E. M., & Winkelstern, I. Z. (2025) · Quaternary Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2024.109068 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
20,000 days in the life of a giant clam reveal late Miocene tropical climate variability
Arndt, I., Bernecker, M., Erhardt, T., Evans, D., Fiebig, J., Fursman, M., Kniest, J., Renema, W., Schlidt, V., Staudigel, P., et al. (2025) · Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology · doi:10.1016/j.palaeo.2024.112711 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Hoefs, J., & Harmon, R. S. (2023) · Isotopes in Environmental and Health Studies · doi:10.1080/10256016.2023.2271127 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Gey, C. J., Pfister, L., Türk, G., Thielen, F., Léonard, L., Schmitt, K., & Schöne, B. R. (2024) · Limnology and Oceanography Letters · doi:10.1002/lol2.10426 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Marchegiano, M., Peral, M., Doyle, R. M., García‐Alix, A., Francke, A., Snoeck, C., Goderis, S., & Claeys, P. (2023) · Earth and Planetary Science Letters · doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2023.118470 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Self-citationRevisiting the Early Late Cretaceous Equable Climate Problem Through a Model‐Data Perspective
Sarr, A., Poulsen, C. J., & Do, E. (2025) · Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology · doi:10.1029/2024pa005002 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Quizon, A. A., Petersen, S., de Winter, N. J., & Vellekoop, J. (2025) · Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta · doi:10.1016/j.gca.2025.10.023 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Assessing the effects of embedding resins on carbonate stable and clumped isotope analyses
Guo, J., Zong, X., de Winter, N. J., Goudsmit, B., Peterse, F., & Ziegler, M. (2023) · Rapid Communications in Mass Spectrometry · doi:10.1002/rcm.9597 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Self-citationToyama, K., Tanabe, K., Moriya, K., Kagi, H., Murakami-Sugihara, N., & Shirai, K. (2024) · Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology · doi:10.1016/j.palaeo.2024.112456 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Kuehn, S. D., Burchell, M., & Leclerc, N. (2024) · Palaeogeography Palaeoclimatology Palaeoecology · doi:10.1016/j.palaeo.2024.112585 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Shallow-water temperature seasonality in the middle Cretaceous mid-latitude northwestern Pacific
Ichimura, S., Takayanagi, H., Iryu, Y., Takahashi, S., & Oji, T. (2024) · Frontiers in Marine Science · doi:10.3389/fmars.2024.1324436 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Jon, J., Sierra, V., & Matthew, M. (2025) · Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology · doi:10.1016/j.palaeo.2025.112778 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Mitra, A., de Winter, N. J., Miloikovitch, T., Halder, K., Ledésert, B. A., Claeys, P., & Müller, I. A. (2025) · Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology · doi:10.1029/2025pa005129 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Self-citationde Winter, N. J., al Fudhaili, N., Arndt, I., Claeys, P., Fraaije, R. H. B., Goderis, S., Jagt, J. W. M., Correa, M. L., Munnecke, A., Stolarski, J., et al. (2025) · Climate of the past · doi:10.5194/cp-21-2361-2025 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Self-citationDetecting environmentally dependent developmental plasticity in fossilized individuals
Brombacher, A., Searle‐Barnes, A., Mulqueeney, J. M., Standish, C. D., Milton, J. A., Katsamenis, O. L., Watson, R. A. R., Trueman, C. N., Sinclair, I., Wilson, P. A., et al. (2025) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2421549122 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Cotton, L., Evans, D., Fursman, M., Müller, W., Renema, W., & Pearson, P. N. (2025) · Palaeogeography Palaeoclimatology Palaeoecology · doi:10.1016/j.palaeo.2025.113350 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Burgener, L., Griffith, E. H., & Hyland, E. G. (2026) · Geological Society of America Bulletin · doi:10.1130/b38825.1 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Application of model predictive control via crop dry weight model in greenhouse climate control
Moghaddam, J. J., & Zarei, G. (2025) · International Journal of Modelling and Simulation · doi:10.1080/02286203.2025.2478997 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Křížová, B., de Winter, N. J., Ziegler, M., Riva, A., Claeys, P., Goderis, S., Arbulla, D., & Frijia, G. (2025) · Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta · doi:10.1016/j.gca.2025.08.013 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Self-citationPrendergast, A. L., Shirai, K., & Kubota, K. (2025) · Palaeogeography Palaeoclimatology Palaeoecology · doi:10.1016/j.palaeo.2025.113262 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Madeira, S. D., & Brauner, M. C. C. (2012) · LA Referencia (Red Federada de Repositorios Institucionales de Publicaciones Científicas)
Letulle, T. (2021) · Climate of the past · doi:10.5194/cp-2021-79-ac2
Müller, I. A., Rijkes, D., Judd, E. J., Hamers, M., Plümper, O., Jagt, J. W. M., & Ziegler, M. (2025) · Cretaceous Research · doi:10.1016/j.cretres.2025.106258
Self-citationSome record it hot: Clumped isotope temperatures from Middle Jurassic molluscan aragonite
Paxton, R. B., Andrews, J. E., Dennis, P. F., Marca, A. D., & Vonhof, H. (2025) · Sedimentology · doi:10.1111/sed.70059
Peharda, M., de Winter, N. D., Schöne, B., Uvanović, H., van der Lubbe, J. V. D., Verdegaal-Warmerdam, S., Bujas, N., Stanić, R., & Janeković, I. (2026) · Regional Studies in Marine Science · doi:10.1016/j.rsma.2026.105143
Wang, T.-Y., Zhang, J., He, S.-L., Aitchison, J. C., Wang, L.-C., Mulch, A., Li, G.-B., Xie, J., Xi, D.-P., & Ding, L. (2026) · Earth and Planetary Science Letters · doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2026.120318
Yu, T., de Winter, N. J., Zhang, D., 薛乃华, Xu, Y., Yang, X., Zhang, H., & Li, S. (2026) · Palaeogeography Palaeoclimatology Palaeoecology · doi:10.1016/j.palaeo.2026.114253
- Authors
- de Winter, N. J., Müller, I. A., Kocken, I. J., Thibault, N., Ullmann, C. V., Farnsworth, A., Lunt, D. J., Claeys, P., & Ziegler, M.
- Affiliations
- Utrecht University (NL)
- University of Copenhagen (DK)
- University of Exeter (GB)
- Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN)
- University of Bristol (GB)
- Vrije Universiteit Brussel (BE)
- ORCID
- Venue
- Communications Earth & Environment
- Published
- 2021-06-10
- Volume
- 2
- Issue
- 1
- ISSN
- 2662-4435 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3168403534
- Cited by
- 52
- References
- 78
- Citations by year
- 2026: 4 · 2025: 16 · 2024: 8 · 2023: 13 · 2022: 5 · 2021: 5 · 2012: 1
- FWCI
- 2.71
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- Communications Earth & Environment (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Research Square (acceptedVersion, cc-by)
- Flanders Marine Institute (Flanders Marine Institute) (publishedVersion, other-oa)
- Research at the University of Copenhagen (University of Copenhagen) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- VU Research Portal (publishedVersion, other-oa)
- VUBIR (Vrije Universiteit Brussel) (submittedVersion)
- Utrecht University Repository (Utrecht University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Bristol Research (University of Bristol) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Funders
- EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (843011)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Paleontology › Paleontology and Stratigraphy of Fossils
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Paleontology › Evolution and Paleontology Studies
- Keywords
- clumped isotopes, sea surface temperature, seasonal temperature variation, bivalve shells, oysters, rudists, Campanian, greenhouse microclimate, paleoclimate reconstruction, seasonal bias, Cretaceous climate, paleoceanography
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