Cited by 193Mosquito-borne diseases and controlClimate Change and Health ImpactsVector-borne infectious diseases

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Transmission of West Nile and five other temperate mosquito-borne viruses peaks at temperatures between 23°C and 26°C

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Shocket, Marta S, Verwillow, Anna B, Numazu, Mailo G, Slamani, Hani, Cohen, Jeremy M, El Moustaid, Fadoua, Rohr, Jason, Johnson, Leah R, Mordecai, Erin A·2020·eLife

DOI 10.7554/elife.58511PMC PMC7492091

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Abstract

The temperature-dependence of many important mosquito-borne diseases has never been quantified. These relationships are critical for understanding current distributions and predicting future shifts from climate change. We used trait-based models to characterize temperature-dependent transmission of 10 vector–pathogen pairs of mosquitoes ( Culex pipiens , Cx. quinquefascsiatus , Cx. tarsalis , and others) and viruses (West Nile, Eastern and Western Equine Encephalitis, St. Louis Encephalitis, Sindbis, and Rift Valley Fever viruses), most with substantial transmission in temperate regions. Transmission is optimized at intermediate temperatures (23–26°C) and often has wider thermal breadths (due to cooler lower thermal limits) compared to pathogens with predominately tropical distributions (in previous studies). The incidence of human West Nile virus cases across US counties responded unimodally to average summer temperature and peaked at 24°C, matching model-predicted optima (24–25°C). Climate warming will likely shift transmission of these diseases, increasing it in cooler locations while decreasing it in warmer locations.

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The 2023 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: the imperative for a health-centred response in a world facing irreversible harms
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Authors: Shocket, M. S., Verwillow, A. B., Numazu, M. G., Slamani, H., Cohen, J. M., El Moustaid, F., Rohr, J., Johnson, L. R., & Mordecai, E. A.
Affiliations: University of California, Los Angeles (US)
Stanford University (US)
Virginia Tech (US)
University of Wisconsin–Madison (US)
Department of Biological Sciences, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (Virginia Tech), Blacksburg, United States
University of Notre Dame (US)
Corresponding author: Shocket, Marta S
ORCID: Shocket, Marta S
Cohen, Jeremy M
Rohr, Jason
Johnson, Leah R
Mordecai, Erin A
Venue: eLife
Publisher: eLife Sciences Publications, Ltd
Published: 2020-09-15
Volume: 9
ISSN: 2050-084X (ISSN-L)
DOI: 10.7554/elife.58511
PMC: PMC7492091
OpenAlex: W3084581047
Cited by: 192
References: 149
Citations by year: 2026: 42 · 2025: 36 · 2024: 34 · 2023: 29 · 2022: 26 · 2021: 22 · 2020: 3
FWCI: 15.00
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: gold
doi.org
Licence: cc-by
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (vor)
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (am)
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (tdm)
Locations: eLife (publishedVersion, cc-by)
PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Digital Commons - University of South Florida (University of South Florida) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
Lancaster EPrints (Lancaster University) (submittedVersion)
Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
VTechWorks (Virginia Tech) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
Funders: National Science Foundation (DEB-1518681, DMS-1750113)
National Institutes of Health (NIGMS R35 MIRA: 1R35GM133439-01)
Topics: Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Mosquito-borne diseases and control
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
Life Sciences › Immunology and Microbiology › Parasitology › Vector-borne infectious diseases
Keywords: West Nile virus, mosquito-borne viruses, temperature-dependent transmission, thermal optimum, thermal breadth, Culex pipiens, Culex tarsalis, eastern equine encephalitis virus, western equine encephalitis virus, St. Louis encephalitis virus, Sindbis virus, Rift Valley fever virus, climate change, vector-pathogen interactions, summer temperature
MeSH terms: Mosquito Vectors, Animals, Arbovirus Infections, Arboviruses, Culex, Models, Biological, Temperature, United States, West Nile Fever, West Nile virus

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Transmission of West Nile and five other temperate mosquito-borne viruses peaks at temperatures between 23°C and 26°C

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