The DOI matches its DataCite record.
A Right to Reasonable Inferences
Abstract
Big Data analytics and artificial intelligence (AI) draw non-intuitive and unverifiable inferences and predictions about the behaviors, preferences, and private lives of individuals. These inferences draw on highly diverse and feature-rich data of unpredictable value, and create new opportunities for discriminatory, biased, and invasive decision-making. Data protection law is meant to protect people’s privacy, identity, reputation, and autonomy, but is currently failing to protect data subjects from the novel risks of inferential analytics. The legal status of inferences is heavily disputed in legal scholarship, and marked by inconsistencies and contradictions within and between the views of the Article 29 Working Party and the European Court of Justice (ECJ). This Article shows that individuals are granted little control or oversight over how their personal data is used to draw inferences about them. Compared to other types of personal data, inferences are effectively “economy class” personal data in the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). Data subjects’ rights to know about (Articles 13–15), rectify (Article 16), delete (Article 17), object to (Article 21), or port (Article 20) personal data are significantly curtailed for inferences. The GDPR also provides insufficient protection against sensitive inferences (Article 9) or remedies to challenge inferences or important decisions based on them (Article 22(3)). This situation is not accidental. In standing jurisprudence the ECJ has consistently restricted the remit of data protection law to assessing the legitimacy of input personal data undergoing processing, and to rectify, block, or erase it. Critically, the ECJ has likewise made clear that data protection law is not intended to ensure the accuracy of decisions and decision-making processes involving personal data, or to make these processes fully transparent. Current policy proposals addressing privacy protection (the ePrivacy Regulation and the EU Digital Content Directive) and Europe’s new Copyright Directive and Trade Secrets Directive also fail to close the GDPR’s accountability gaps concerning inferences. This Article argues that a new data protection right, the “right to reasonable inferences,” is needed to help close the accountability gap currently posed by “high risk inferences,” meaning inferences drawn from Big Data analytics that damage privacy or reputation, or have low verifiability in the sense of being predictive or opinion-based while being used in important decisions. This right would require ex-ante justification to be given by the data controller to establish whether an inference is reasonable. This disclosure would address (1) why certain data form a normatively acceptable basis from which to draw inferences; (2) why these inferences are relevant and normatively acceptable for the chosen processing purpose or type of automated decision; and (3) whether the data and methods used to draw the inferences are accurate and statistically reliable. The ex-ante justification is bolstered by an additional ex-post mechanism enabling unreasonable inferences to be challenged.
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
In the citing paper
“Wachter and Mittelstadt (2019) , argue that as the GDPR provides insufficient protection against sensitive inferences (Article 9) or remedies to challenge inferences or important decisions based on them (Article 22(3)), a new data protection right, the 'right to reasonable inferences', is needed to help close the accountability gap currently posed by ' high risk inferences'.”
From Legal and human rights issues of AI: Gaps, challenges and vulnerabilities (2020) · cites this paper as Wachter and Mittelstadt (2019)
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cited by
Principles alone cannot guarantee ethical AI
Mittelstadt, B. (2019) · Nature Machine Intelligence · doi:10.1038/s42256-019-0114-4 · Cited by 1,886
“However, the impact of such frameworks is variable and limited in scope 26,27 .”
Self-citationTowards transparency by design for artificial intelligence
Felzmann, H., Fosch-Villaronga, E., Lutz, C., & Tamò-Larrieux, A. (2020) · Science and Engineering Ethics · doi:10.1007/s11948-020-00276-4 · Cited by 588
Legal and human rights issues of AI: Gaps, challenges and vulnerabilities
Rodrigues, R. (2020) · Journal of Responsible Technology · doi:10.1016/j.jrt.2020.100005 · Cited by 494
Actionable Recourse in Linear Classification
Ustun, B., Spangher, A., & Liu, Y. (2019) · Proceedings of the Conference on Fairness, Accountability, and Transparency · doi:10.1145/3287560.3287566 · Cited by 501
On the apparent conflict between individual and group fairness
Binns, R. (2020) · Proceedings of the 2020 Conference on Fairness, Accountability, and Transparency · doi:10.1145/3351095.3372864 · Cited by 312
Mapping value sensitive design onto AI for social good principles
Umbrello, S., & van de Poel, I. (2021) · AI and Ethics · doi:10.1007/s43681-021-00038-3 · Cited by 251
Discrimination, artificial intelligence, and algorithmic decision-making
Borgesius, F. Z. (2025) · arXiv · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2510.13465 · Cited by 152
“See for instance: Goodman 2016; Mantelero 2018; Hacker 2018; Hoboken and Kostic (forthcoming); Wachter 2018; Wachter and Mittelstadt 2018.”
Fit for purpose? The GDPR and the governance of European digital health
Marelli, L., Lievevrouw, E., & Van Hoyweghen, I. (2020) · Policy Studies · doi:10.1080/01442872.2020.1724929 · Cited by 137
Automated Trouble: The Role of Algorithmic Selection in Harms on Social Media Platforms
Saurwein, F., & Spencer-Smith, C. (2021) · Media and Communication · doi:10.17645/mac.v9i4.4062 · Cited by 88
Alexander, C. S., Yarborough, M., & Smith, A. (2024) · Precision Agriculture · doi:10.1007/s11119-023-10063-3 · Cited by 84
Dashing hopes? The predictive accuracy of domestic abuse risk assessment by police
Turner, E., Medina, J., & Brown, G. (2019) · The British Journal of Criminology · doi:10.1093/bjc/azy074 · Cited by 78
AI, Explainability and Public Reason: The Argument from the Limitations of the Human Mind
Maclure, J. (2021) · Minds and Machines · doi:10.1007/s11023-021-09570-x · Cited by 67
(2019) · Cited by 37
Epistemic fragmentation poses a threat to the governance of online targeting
Milano, S., Mittelstadt, B., Wachter, S., & Russell, C. (2021) · Nature Machine Intelligence · doi:10.1038/s42256-021-00358-3 · Cited by 29
Self-citationPrinciples Governing Ethical Development and Deployment of AI
Shukla, S. (2024) · International Journal of Engineering Business and Management · doi:10.22161/ijebm.8.2.5 · Cited by 26
“Federal organizations that focus on fairness and transparency, such as the FTC, offer guidelines on the usage of AI 25 .”
BackgroundFresz, B., Dubovitskaya, E., Brajovic, D., Huber, M. F., & Horz, C. (2024) · Proceedings of the AAAI/ACM Conference on AI, Ethics, and Society · doi:10.1609/aies.v7i1.31648 · Cited by 17
“It is being discussed whether the “right to an explanation” of algorithmic decisions can be derived from the provisions of the GDPR, specifically Article 15(1)(h) and Article 22(3) [45, 46].”
BackgroundMethodCaring Without Feeling: Affective Dynamics as the Control Layer of Human-AI Agent Collaboration
Xu, J., Wu, X., Zhang, Z., Xu, Y., Yang, Y., Zhu, J., Xiao, L., Wu, W., & He, L. (2026) · arXiv · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2606.18259
“Governance should therefore operate at the memory layer, applying data minimisation, purpose limitation, granular consent and erasure rights [9, 111, 112].”
Metadata
- Authors
- Wachter, S., & Mittelstadt, B.
- Venue
- Columbia Business Law Review
- Publisher
- Columbia Business Law Review
- Published
- 2019-05-01
- References
- 0
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
Data sources
Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.