Cited by 689Suicide and Self-Harm StudiesMental Health Treatment and AccessBipolar Disorder and Treatment

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Absolute Risk of Suicide After First Hospital Contact in Mental Disorder

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Nordentoft, Merete·2011·Archives of General Psychiatry

DOI 10.1001/archgenpsychiatry.2011.113

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Abstract

CONTEXT: Estimates of lifetime risk of suicide in mental disorders were based on selected samples with incomplete follow-up. OBJECTIVE: To estimate, in a national cohort, the absolute risk of suicide within 36 years after the first psychiatric contact. DESIGN: Prospective study of incident cases followed up for as long as 36 years. Median follow-up was 18 years. SETTING: Individual data drawn from Danish longitudinal registers. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 176,347 persons born from January 1, 1955, through December 31, 1991, were followed up from their first contact with secondary mental health services after 15 years of age until death, emigration, disappearance, or the end of 2006. For each participant, 5 matched control individuals were included. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Absolute risk of suicide in percentage of individuals up to 36 years after the first contact. RESULTS: Among men, the absolute risk of suicide (95% confidence interval [CI]) was highest for bipolar disorder, (7.77%; 6.01%-10.05%), followed by unipolar affective disorder (6.67%; 5.72%-7.78%) and schizophrenia (6.55%; 5.85%-7.34%). Among women, the highest risk was found among women with schizophrenia (4.91%; 95% CI, 4.03%-5.98%), followed by bipolar disorder (4.78%; 3.48%-6.56%). In the nonpsychiatric population, the risk was 0.72% (95% CI, 0.61%-0.86%) for men and 0.26% (0.20%-0.35%) for women. Comorbid substance abuse and comorbid unipolar affective disorder significantly increased the risk. The co-occurrence of deliberate self-harm increased the risk approximately 2-fold. Men with bipolar disorder and deliberate self-harm had the highest risk (17.08%; 95% CI, 11.19%-26.07%). CONCLUSIONS: This is the first analysis of the absolute risk of suicide in a total national cohort of individuals followed up from the first psychiatric contact, and it represents, to our knowledge, the hitherto largest sample with the longest and most complete follow-up. Our estimates are lower than those most often cited, but they are still substantial and indicate the continuous need for prevention of suicide among people with mental disorders.

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Result
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BackgroundInfluential
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Kumpula, M. J., Wagner, H. R., Dedert, E. A., Crowe, C. M., Day, K. T., Powell, K., Batdorf, W. H., Shabana, H., Kim, E., & Kimbrel, N. A. (2019) · Women s Health Issues · doi:10.1016/j.whi.2019.04.013 · Cited by 22
Sick-leave measures, socio-demographic factors and health care as risk indicators for suicidal behavior in patients with depressive disorders – a nationwide prospective cohort study in Sweden
Wang, M., Alexanderson, K. A. E., Runeson, B., & Mittendorfer‐Rutz, E. (2014) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.jad.2014.10.069 · Cited by 22
“The lifetime risk of suicide is around 4–15% for patients with depressive disorders (Guze and Robins, 1970; Blair-West et al., 1997; Inskip et al., 1998; Nordentoft et al., 2011).”
Background
Herpes Simplex Virus Type 1 infection is associated with suicidal behavior and first registered psychiatric diagnosis in a healthy population
Nissen, J., Trabjerg, B. B., Pedersen, M., Banasik, K., Pedersen, O. B., Sørensen, E., Nielsen, K. R., Erikstrup, C., Petersen, M. S., Paarup, H. M., et al. (2019) · Psychoneuroendocrinology · doi:10.1016/j.psyneuen.2019.06.015 · Cited by 21
“…or committing suicide, was defined in agreement with the criteria set by the Danish National Patient Register (1977–2012), the Psychiatric Central Research Register (1969–2013) and the Danish Registers of Causes of Death (1970–2011), previously used in Danish register studies (Nordentoft, 2011).”
Method
Comorbid Bipolar Disorder and Migraine: From Mechanisms to Treatment
Duan, J., Yang, R., Lu, W., Zhao, L., Hu, S., & Hu, C. (2021) · Frontiers in Psychiatry · doi:10.3389/fpsyt.2020.560138 · Cited by 23
Suicide in individuals with eating disorders who had sought mental health treatment in England: a national retrospective cohort study
Hercus, C., Baird, A., Ibrahim, S., Turnbull, P., Appleby, L., Singh, U., & Kapur, N. (2024) · The Lancet Psychiatry · doi:10.1016/s2215-0366(24)00143-3 · Cited by 23
A lack of therapeutic engagement and consumer input in acute inpatient care planning limits fully accountable mental health nursing practice
Rio, J. H., Fuller, J. D., Taylor, K. A., & Muir‐Cochrane, E. (2019) · International Journal of Mental Health Nursing · doi:10.1111/inm.12684 · Cited by 21
Preventing Suicide in the United States
Adams, J. M., & van Dahlen, B. (2020) · Public Health Reports · doi:10.1177/0033354920974657 · Cited by 21
Heightened reactivity to uncertain threat as a neurobehavioral marker of suicidal ideation in individuals with depression and anxiety
Lieberman, L., Petrey, K., Shankman, S. A., Phan, K. L., & Gorka, S. M. (2020) · International Journal of Psychophysiology · doi:10.1016/j.ijpsycho.2020.06.003 · Cited by 20
Persistence of suicidal ideation within acute phase treatment of major depressive disorder: analysis of clinical predictors
Olgiati, P., & Serretti, A. (2022) · International Clinical Psychopharmacology · doi:10.1097/yic.0000000000000416 · Cited by 20
“In mood disorders lifetime risk for suicide is estimated to range from 2 to 8% (Blair-West et al., 1999; Bostwick and Pankratz, 2000; Nordentoft et al., 2011) and mortality from suicide is more than 20 times higher than in the general population (Osby et al.”
Background
Prevalence, clinical correlates and IQ of suicidal ideation in drug naïve Chinese Han patients with major depressive disorder
Li, X., Liu, H., Hou, R. H., Baldwin, D. S., Li, R., Cui, K., Liu, C., Sun, Q., Wang, G., Tan, Q., et al. (2018) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.jad.2018.12.017 · Cited by 20
Suicidal Ideation and Its Associated Factors Among Patients with Major Depressive Disorder at Amanuel Mental Specialized Hospital, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Basha, E. A., Mengistu, B. T., Engidaw, N. A., Wubetu, A. D., & Haile, A. B. (2021) · Neuropsychiatric Disease and Treatment · doi:10.2147/ndt.s311514 · Cited by 20
Reasons for desiring death: Examining causative factors of suicide attempters treated in emergency rooms in Korea
Lim, M., Kim, S., Nam, Y.-Y., Moon, E., Yu, J., Lee, S.-J., Chang, J. S., Jhoo, J. H., Cha, B., Choi, J., et al. (2014) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.jad.2014.07.026 · Cited by 20
“This may be parallel to previous findings that suicide attempters with high intent had a higher prevalence of mental disorder (Douglas et al., 2004; Gupta and Trzepacz, 1997; Kumar et al., 2006; Nordentoft et al., 2011).”
BackgroundResult
Reducing relapse and suicide in bipolar disorder: practical clinical approaches to identifying risk, reducing harm and engaging service users in planning and delivery of care – the PARADES (Psychoeducation, Anxiety, Relapse, Advance Directive Evaluation and Suicidality) programme
Jones, S. H., Riste, L., Barrowclough, C., Βartlett, P., Clements, C., Davies, L. M., Holland, F., Kapur, N., Lobban, F. A., Long, R., et al. (2018) · Programme Grants for Applied Research · doi:10.3310/pgfar06060 · Cited by 20
Clinical and neurodevelopmental correlates of aggression in early psychosis
López-García, P., Ashby, S. R., Patel, P., Pierce, K. M., Meyer, M. S., Rosenthal, A., Titone, M. K., Carter, C., & Niendam, T. A. (2019) · Schizophrenia Research · doi:10.1016/j.schres.2019.07.045 · Cited by 22
Decline in suicide mortality after psychiatric hospitalization for depression in Finland between 1991 and 2014
Aaltonen, K. I., Isometsä, E. T., Sund, R., & Pirkola, S. P. (2018) · World Psychiatry · doi:10.1002/wps.20501 · Cited by 20
Studies of Suicidal Behavior Using National Registers
Erlangsen, A., Qin, P., & Mittendorfer‐Rutz, E. (2018) · Crisis · doi:10.1027/0227-5910/a000552 · Cited by 19
Lamotrigine in the maintenance treatment of bipolar disorder
Hashimoto, Y., Kotake, K., Watanabe, N., Fujiwara, T., & Sakamoto, S. (2020) · Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews · doi:10.1002/14651858.cd013575 · Cited by 19
Self-harm in bipolar disorder: Findings from a prospective clinical database
Clements, C., Jones, S. H., Morriss, R. K., Peters, S., Cooper, J., While, D., & Kapur, N. (2014) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.jad.2014.10.012 · Cited by 19
Genetic and Familial Environmental Effects on Suicide – An Adoption Study of Siblings
Petersen, L. V., Sørensen, T. I. A., Andersen, P. K., Mortensen, P. B., & Hawton, K. E. (2013) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0077973 · Cited by 19
“Severe psychiatric disorders necessitating psychiatric hospital admission are strongly associated with risk of suicide [11-13].”
Background
Potential use of text classification tools as signatures of suicidal behavior: A proof-of-concept study using Virginia Woolf’s personal writings
Berni, G. D. Á., Rabelo‐da‐Ponte, F. D., Librenza‐Garcia, D., Boeira, M. V., Kauer‐Sant’Anna, M., Passos, I. C., & Kapczinski, F. P. (2018) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0204820 · Cited by 19
Higher prevalence of intentional self-harm in bipolar disorder with evening chronotype: A finding from the APPLE cohort study
Esaki, Y., Obayashi, K., Saeki, K., Fujita, K., Iwata, N., & Kitajima, T. (2020) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.jad.2020.08.068 · Cited by 20
Post-hospitalization course and predictive signs of suicidal behavior of suicidal patients admitted to a psychiatric hospital: a 2-year prospective follow-up study
Hayashi, N., Igarashi, M., Imai, A., Yoshizawa, Y., Utsumi, K., Ishikawa, Y., Tokunaga, T., Ishimoto, K., Harima, H., Tatebayashi, Y., et al. (2012) · BMC Psychiatry · doi:10.1186/1471-244x-12-186 · Cited by 24
Is it time to abandon suicide risk assessment?
Murray, D. (2016) · BJPsych Open · doi:10.1192/bjpo.bp.115.002071 · Cited by 19
Prevalence of Patient Suicide and Its Impact on Health Care Professionals: A Systematic Review
Jupina, M., Mercer, M., Weleff, J., Hackett, L. A., Nunes, J. C., Sebastian, D., & Anand, A. (2024) · Psychiatric Services · doi:10.1176/appi.ps.20230351 · Cited by 18
Suicidal drowning deaths in northern Sweden 1992–2009 – The role of mental disorder and intoxication
Ahlm, K., Lindqvist, P., Saveman, B., & Björnstig, U. (2015) · Journal of Forensic and Legal Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.jflm.2015.06.002 · Cited by 18
The Prevalence of Self-injurious Behavior in Patients With Schizophrenia Spectrum Disorders: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis
Lorentzen, E. A., Mors, O. N., & Kjær, J. N. (2022) · Schizophrenia Bulletin Open · doi:10.1093/schizbullopen/sgac069 · Cited by 21
“14 Thus, in addition to numerous deleterious consequences including severe scarring, contraction of infectious diseases, and accidental death, self-injurious behavior may facilitate genuine suicidal behavior in individuals with schizophrenia.”
Modeling the Longitudinal Effects of Insight on Depression, Quality of Life and Suicidality in Schizophrenia Spectrum Disorders: Results from the FACE-SZ Cohort
Ehrminger, M., Urbach, M., Passerieux, C., Aouizerate, B., Berna, F. S., Bohec, A.-L., Capdevielle, D., Chéreau, I., Clauss, J. M. E., Dubertret, C., et al. (2019) · Journal of Clinical Medicine · doi:10.3390/jcm8081196 · Cited by 18
Comparison of shape alterations of the thalamus and caudate nucleus between drug-naïve major depressive disorder patients and healthy controls
Choi, K. W., Han, K., Kim, H., Kim, A., Kang, W., Kang, Y., Tae, W., & Ham, B. (2020) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.jad.2020.01.011 · Cited by 17
Medical-Level Suicide Risk Analysis: A Novel Standard and Evaluation Model
Wang, R., Yang, B. X., Ma, Y., Wang, P., Qiao, Y., Zong, X., Huang, Z., Ma, S., Hu, L., Hwang, K., et al. (2021) · IEEE Internet of Things Journal · doi:10.1109/jiot.2021.3052363 · Cited by 18
Prevalence and risk factors of suicidal ideation in adult inpatients with five different types of mental disorders
Zhu, H., Yao, J., Fan, H., Wang, Q., Wang, X., & Gao, Q. (2021) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.jad.2021.05.033 · Cited by 19
Suicidality and symptoms of anxiety, irritability, and agitation in patients experiencing manic episodes with depressive symptoms: a naturalistic study
Eberhard, J., & Weiller, E. (2016) · Neuropsychiatric Disease and Treatment · doi:10.2147/ndt.s111094 · Cited by 18
“the need for early interventions.(14) Since patients with mixed states are at increased risk of suicide, early and accurate diagnosis is essential to ensure that the optimal treatment is prescribed.”
Background
Diagnostic conversion to bipolar disorder in unipolar depressed patients in Hong Kong: A 20-year follow-up study
Tse, A. C., Fok, M. L.-Y., Yim, L. C. L., Leung, M. M. W., & Leung, C. M. (2021) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.jad.2021.02.060 · Cited by 17
Relapse Prevention Intervention after Suicidal Event (RISE): Feasibility study of a psychotherapeutic short-term program for inpatients after a recent suicide attempt
Bahlmann, L., Lübbert, M., Sobanski, T., Kastner, U. W., Walter, M., Smesny, S., & Wagner, G. (2022) · Frontiers in Psychiatry · doi:10.3389/fpsyt.2022.937527 · Cited by 17
“There is a substantial risk of dying by a subsequent attempt for individuals surviving an index attempt (11, 12).”
Background
Elevated Choline-Containing Compound Levels in Rapid Cycling Bipolar Disorder
Cao, B., Stanley, J. A., Passos, I. C., Mwangi, B., Selvaraj, S., Zunta‐Soares, G. B., & Soares, J. C. (2017) · Neuropsychopharmacology · doi:10.1038/npp.2017.39 · Cited by 17
Is occipital bending a structural biomarker of risk for depression and sensitivity to treatment?
Fullard, K., Maller, J. J., Welton, T., Lyon, M., Gordon, E., Koslow, S. H., & Grieve, S. M. (2019) · Journal of Clinical Neuroscience · doi:10.1016/j.jocn.2019.02.007 · Cited by 16
Predicting factors for non-suicidal self-injury in patients with schizophrenia spectrum disorders and the role of substance use
Güney, E., Alnıak, İ., & Erkıran, M. (2020) · Asian Journal of Psychiatry · doi:10.1016/j.ajp.2020.102068 · Cited by 17
The Microbiome and Mental Health Across the Lifespan
Dickerson, F., Dilmore, A. H., Godoy‐Vitorino, F., Nguyen, T. T., Paulus, M. P., Pinto‐Tomás, A. A., Moya-Roman, C., Zúñiga-Chaves, I., Severance, E. G., & Jeste, D. V. (2022) · Current topics in behavioral neurosciences · doi:10.1007/7854_2022_384 · Cited by 17
Associations between physical activity and motivation, competence, functioning, and apathy in inhabitants with mental illness from a rural municipality: a cross-sectional study
Farholm, A., Sørensen, M., Halvari, H., & Hynnekleiv, T. (2017) · BMC Psychiatry · doi:10.1186/s12888-017-1528-3 · Cited by 26
“An increased risk of suicide explains part of the reduced life expectancy [3], but the major contributor is physical illness, in particular cardiovascular diseases [4–6].”
Background
Absence of nonfatal suicidal behavior preceding suicide death reveals differences in clinical risks
Coon, H. H., Shabalin, A. A., DiBlasi, E., Monson, E. T., Han, S., Kaufman, E. A., Chen, D., Kious, B. M., Molina, N. C., Yu, Z., et al. (2025) · Psychiatry Research · doi:10.1016/j.psychres.2025.116391 · Cited by 16
“However, evidence indicates that 80 %-90 % of individuals with psychiatric diagnoses will not go on to die by suicide, (Nordentoft et al., 2011; Inskip et al., 1998) suggesting that psychiatric risk is unlikely to be a sufficient condition for risk of suicide death.”
Joint and distinct neural structure and function deficits in major depressive disorder with suicidality: a multimodal meta-analysis of MRI studies
Lin, S., Chen, Z., Zhao, Y., & Gong, Q. (2025) · Journal of Psychiatry and Neuroscience · doi:10.1503/jpn.240112 · Cited by 16
“3,5 It was reported that 7% of males and 4% of females with MDD died from suicide every year, 6 and suicide risk of patients with MDD was estimated to be 20-fold higher than that of the general population.”
Wird die Rolle von psychischen Erkrankungen beim Suizid überbewertet?
Brieger, P., Menzel, S., & Hamann, J. (2021) · Bundesgesundheitsblatt - Gesundheitsforschung - Gesundheitsschutz · doi:10.1007/s00103-021-03464-0 · Cited by 16
“[11] darauf hin, dass frühere Zahlen zum Zusammenhang zwischen Suizid und psychischer Erkrankung, die bis heute zitiert werden und von einer Suizidhäufigkeit von 25% und mehr bei affektiven Erkrankungen ausgehen, zu hoch sind und als widerlegt gelten sollten, so z.”
Background
Self-harm, somatic disorders and mortality in the 3 years following a hospitalisation in psychiatry in adolescents and young adults
Jollant, F., Goueslard, K., Hawton, K. E., & Quantin, C. (2022) · Evidence-Based Mental Health · doi:10.1136/ebmental-2021-300409 · Cited by 17
Repetitive negative thinking as a unique transdiagnostic risk factor for suicidal ideation
Caudle, M. M., Dugas, N. N., Patel, K. R., Moore, R. C., Thomas, M. L., & Bomyea, J. A. (2024) · Psychiatry Research · doi:10.1016/j.psychres.2024.115787 · Cited by 18

Authors: Nordentoft, M.
Affiliations: Mental Health Services (DK)
Corresponding author: Nordentoft, Merete
ORCID: Nordentoft, Merete
Venue: Archives of General Psychiatry
Publisher: American Medical Association (AMA)
Published: 2011-10-01
Volume: 68
Issue: 10
Pages: 1058
ISSN: 0003-990X (ISSN-L)
DOI: 10.1001/archgenpsychiatry.2011.113
OpenAlex: W2033648797
Cited by: 689
References: 35
Citations by year: 2026: 25 · 2025: 33 · 2024: 40 · 2023: 52 · 2022: 35 · 2021: 67 · 2020: 68 · 2019: 65 · 2018: 64 · 2017: 44 · 2016: 53 · 2015: 52 · 2014: 46 · 2013: 29 · 2012: 14
FWCI: 30.99
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: bronze
doi.org
Locations: Archives of General Psychiatry (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Research at the University of Copenhagen (University of Copenhagen) (publishedVersion)
Topics: Social Sciences › Psychology › Clinical Psychology › Suicide and Self-Harm Studies
Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Mental Health Treatment and Access
Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Bipolar Disorder and Treatment
Keywords: suicide risk, mental illness, bipolar disorder, schizophrenia, unipolar affective disorder, substance use comorbidity, self-harm, sex differences, lifetime risk, psychiatric hospitalization, national cohort, Denmark, suicide prevention, suicide risk factors, suicide prevention research funding, suicide prevention workforce
MeSH terms: Adolescent, Adult, Mental Disorders, Bipolar Disorder, Denmark, Female, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Prospective Studies, Risk Factors, Schizophrenia, Schizophrenic Psychology, Sex Factors, Suicide, Comorbidity, Incidence, Mood Disorders, Substance-Related Disorders, Young Adult

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