Recent Antarctic sea ice trends in the context of Southern Ocean surface climate variations since 1950: FAN ET AL.
Abstract
This study compares the distribution of surface climate trends over the Southern Ocean in austral summer between 1979–2011 and 1950–1978, using a wide variety of data sets including uninterpolated gridded marine archives, land station data, reanalysis, and satellite products. Apart from the Antarctic Peninsula and adjacent regions, sea surface temperatures and surface air temperatures decreased during 1979–2011, consistent with the expansion of Antarctic sea ice. In contrast, the Southern Ocean and coastal Antarctica warmed during 1950–1978. Sea level pressure (SLP) and zonal wind trends provide additional evidence for a sign reversal between the two periods, with cooling (warming) accompanied by stronger (weaker) westerlies and lower (higher) SLP at polar latitudes in the early (late) period. Such physically consistent trends across a range of independently measured parameters provide robust evidence for multidecadal climate variability over the Southern Ocean and place the recent Antarctic sea ice trends into a broader context.
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The failure of CMIP5 models to simulate Southern Ocean SST cooling may suggest that natural decadal variability is important or that the timing of different response mechanisms in the models is not adequately resolved.
“this may suggest that natural decadal variability is also important73,76, or that the timing of different response mechanisms in the models is not adequately resolved74,77.”
From Tendencies, variability and persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies (2020) · cites this paper as [76]
CMIP5 climate models do not simulate SST cooling in the Southern Ocean or reproduce the suggested mechanisms for SST cooling.
“As climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) do not simulate SST cooling in this region or reproduce the suggested mechanisms for SST cooling76”
From Tendencies, variability and persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies (2020) · cites this paper as [76]
Fan et al. observed a 0.2-0.4 K cooling per decade in annual mean SST over the Southern Ocean between 1979-2011, with a corresponding 12% increase in annual mean Antarctic sea-ice concentration.
“Fan et al.76 observed a 0.2–0.4 K cooling per decade in the annual mean SST over the Southern Ocean between 1979–2011 with a corresponding 12% increase in the annual mean Antarctic sea-ice concentration.”
From Tendencies, variability and persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies (2020) · cites this paper as [76]
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Self-citationHistorical Changes in Wind‐Driven Ocean Circulation Can Accelerate Global Warming
McMonigal, K., Larson, S. M., Hu, S., & Kramer, R. J. (2023) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2023gl102846 · Cited by 37 · see citing works
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The Southern Ocean Sea Surface Temperature Response to Ozone Depletion: A Multimodel Comparison
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Variability of Antarctic sea ice extent over the past 200 years
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Macroparasites in Antarctic Penguins
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Estimating the extent of Antarctic summer sea ice during the Heroic Age of Antarctic Exploration
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An ocean-sea ice model study of the unprecedented Antarctic sea ice minimum in 2016
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Gaining (and losing) Antarctic sea ice: variability, trends and mechanisms
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Process-Based Decomposition of the Decadal Climate Difference between 2002–13 and 1984–95
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Thermal trait variation may buffer Southern Ocean phytoplankton from anthropogenic warming
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Kusahara, K. (2020) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-19-0659.1 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Anthropogenic Temperature and Salinity Changes in the Southern Ocean
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Drivers of Antarctic Sea Ice Volume Change in CMIP5 Models
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The Late Miocene‐Early Pliocene Biogenic Bloom: An Integrated Study in the Tasman Sea
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Recent Multi‐Decadal Southern Ocean Surface Cooling Unlikely Caused by Southern Annular Mode Trends
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Microplastic hotspots mapped across the Southern Ocean reveal areas of potential ecological impact
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Impact of ocean model resolution on understanding the delayed warming of the Southern Ocean
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Causal Interactions between Southern Ocean Polynyas and High-Latitude Atmosphere–Ocean Variability
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A drop in Antarctic sea ice extent at the end of the 1970s
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Good ozone, bad ozone and the Southern Ocean
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How Well Do the CMIP5 Models Simulate the Antarctic Atmospheric Energy Budget?
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An overview of decadal-scale sea surface temperature variability in the observational record
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- Authors
- Fan, T., Deser, C., & Schneider, D. P.
- Affiliations
- NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US)
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2014-04-04
- Volume
- 41
- Issue
- 7
- Pages
- 2419-2426
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2030403001
- Cited by
- 161
- References
- 39
- Citations by year
- 2026: 8 · 2025: 11 · 2024: 12 · 2023: 13 · 2022: 20 · 2021: 9 · 2020: 16 · 2019: 13 · 2018: 12 · 2017: 15 · 2016: 18 · 2015: 10 · 2014: 4
- FWCI
- 10.41
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Geophysical Research Letters (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation
- China Scholarship Council
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Keywords
- sea surface temperature, surface air temperature, sea level pressure, multidecadal climate variability, global warming, Antarctic Peninsula, austral summer
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