A regional estimate of postfire streamflow change in California
Open accessAbstract
The effect of fire on annual streamflow has been examined in numerous watershed studies, with some studies observing postfire increases in streamflow while other have observed no conclusive change. Despite this inherent variability in streamflow response, the management of water resources for flood protection, water supply, water quality, and the environment necessitates an understanding of postfire effects on streamflow at regional scales. In this study, the regional effect of wildfire on annual streamflow was investigated using 12 paired watersheds in central and southern California. A mixed model was used to pool and statistically examine the combined paired‐watershed data, with emphasis on the effects of percentage area burned, postfire recovery of vegetation, and postfire wetness conditions on postfire streamflow change. At a regional scale, postfire annual streamflow increased 134% (82%–200%) during the first postfire year assuming 100% area burned and average annual wetness conditions. Postfire response decreased with lower percentages of percentage area burned and during subsequent years as vegetation recovered following fire. Annual streamflow response to fire was found to be sensitive to annual wetness conditions, with postfire response being smallest during dry years, greatest during wet years, and slowly decreasing during very wet years. These findings provide watershed managers with a first‐order estimate for predicting postfire streamflow response in both gauged and ungauged watersheds.
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River flow generally increases in the months following wildland fires.
“River flow generally increases in the months following wildland fires8”
From Burned forests impact water supplies (2018) · cites this paper as [8]
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Siddiqui, S. F., Reaver, N., & Kaplan, D. A. (2026) · Water Resources Research · doi:10.1029/2025wr042802
- Authors
- Bart, R. R.
- Affiliations
- University of California, Santa Barbara (US)
- Corresponding author
- Bart, Ryan R.
- ORCID
- Bart, Ryan R.
- Venue
- Water Resources Research
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2016-02
- Volume
- 52
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 1465-1478
- ISSN
- 0043-1397 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-7973
- OpenAlex
- W2270337893
- Cited by
- 67
- References
- 50
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 11 · 2023: 6 · 2022: 9 · 2021: 6 · 2020: 9 · 2019: 6 · 2018: 5 · 2017: 4 · 2016: 4
- FWCI
- 4.68
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Water Resources Research (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Water Science and Technology › Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Hydrology and Drought Analysis
- Keywords
- burned area, vegetation recovery, paired watersheds, ungauged basins
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