Hydrologic effects of large southwestern USA wildfires significantly increase regional water supply: fact or fiction?
Open accessAbstract
In recent years climate change and historic fire suppression have increased the frequency of large wildfires in the southwestern USA, motivating study of the hydrological consequences of these wildfires at point and watershed scales, typically over short periods of time. These studies have revealed that reduced soil infiltration capacity and reduced transpiration due to tree canopy combustion increase streamflow at the watershed scale. However, the degree to which these local increases in runoff propagate to larger scales—relevant to urban and agricultural water supply—remains largely unknown, particularly in semi-arid mountainous watersheds co-dominated by winter snowmelt and the North American monsoon. To address this question, we selected three New Mexico watersheds—the Jemez (1223 km 2 ), Mogollon (191 km 2 ), and Gila (4807 km 2 )—that together have been affected by over 100 wildfires since 1982. We then applied climate-driven linear models to test for effects of fire on streamflow metrics after controlling for climatic variability. Here we show that, after controlling for climatic and snowpack variability, significantly more streamflow discharged from the Gila watershed for three to five years following wildfires, consistent with increased regional water yield due to enhanced infiltration-excess overland flow and groundwater recharge at the large watershed scale. In contrast, we observed no such increase in discharge from the Jemez watershed following wildfires. Fire regimes represent a key difference between the contrasting responses of the Jemez and Gila watersheds with the latter experiencing more frequent wildfires, many caused by lightning strikes. While hydrologic dynamics at the scale of large watersheds were previously thought to be climatically dominated, these results suggest that if one fifth or more of a large watershed has been burned in the previous three to five years, significant increases in water yield can be expected.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Increased river flow can be sustained over multiple years after fires in New Mexico and Colorado.
“recent studies in New Mexico and Colorado also show that increased river flow can be sustained over multiple years3,9.”
From Burned forests impact water supplies (2018) · cites this paper as [3]
It is unclear how the current fire pattern affects water availability at the regional or continental scale.
“However, it is unclear how this fire pattern affects water availability at the regional or continental scale1–4.”
From Burned forests impact water supplies (2018) · cites this paper as [3]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing
R Core Team (2000) · doi:10.32614/r.manuals · Cited by 355,706 · see citing works
A new look at the statistical model identification
Akaike, H. (1974) · IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control · doi:10.1109/tac.1974.1100705 · Cited by 51,879 · see citing works
Warming and earlier spring increase western U.S. forest wildfire activity.
Westerling, A. L., Hidalgo, H. G., Cayan, D. R., & Swetnam, T. W. (2006) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1128834 · Cited by 5,176 · cited 1× · see citing works
“…wildfires in western North American forests increased markedly in spatial extent, duration, frequency, and severity in association with higher spring and summer temperatures, as well as reduced winter precipitation (Westerling et al 2006, Miller et al 2008, Williams et al 2010, Jolly et al 2015).”
BackgroundEcoregions of the Conterminous United States
Omernik, J. M. (1987) · Annals of the Association of American Geographers · doi:10.1111/j.1467-8306.1987.tb00149.x · Cited by 2,695 · see citing works
Relative Importance for Linear Regression in <i>R</i> : The Package <b>relaimpo</b>
Grömping, U. (2006) · Journal of Statistical Software · doi:10.18637/jss.v017.i01 · Cited by 2,615 · see citing works
Bosch, J. M., & Hewlett, J. D. (1982) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/0022-1694(82)90117-2 · Cited by 2,567 · see citing works
Introduction to remote sensing
(1987) · doi:10.1080/10106048709354126 · Cited by 2,301 · see citing works
Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013
Jolly, W. M., Cochrane, M. A., Freeborn, P. H., Holden, Z. A., Brown, T. J., Williamson, G. J., & Bowman, D. M. J. S. (2015) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/ncomms8537 · Cited by 2,200 · see citing works
Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in Southwestern North America
Seager, R., Ting, M., Held, I. M., Kushnir, Y., Lu, J., Vecchi, G. A., Huang, H., Harnik, N., Leetmaa, A., Lau, N., et al. (2007) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1139601 · Cited by 2,076 · see citing works
A Landsat Surface Reflectance Dataset for North America, 1990–2000
Masek, J. G., Vermote, E. F., Saleous, N., Wolfe, R. E., HALL, F. G., Huemmrich, K. F., Feng Gao, A., Kutler, J., & Lim, T. K. (2006) · IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Letters · doi:10.1109/lgrs.2005.857030 · Cited by 1,628 · see citing works
Long-Term Aridity Changes in the Western United States
Cook, E. R., Woodhouse, C. A., Eakin, C. M., Meko, D. M., & Stahle, D. W. (2004) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1102586 · Cited by 1,580 · see citing works
A Project for Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity
Eidenshink, J., Schwind, B., Brewer, K., Zhu, Z.-L., Quayle, B., & Howard, S. (2007) · Fire Ecology · doi:10.4996/fireecology.0301003 · Cited by 1,423 · see citing works
Wildfire as a hydrological and geomorphological agent
Shakesby, R. A., & Doerr, S. H. (2006) · Earth-Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2005.10.006 · Cited by 1,346 · see citing works
North American drought: Reconstructions, causes, and consequences
Cook, E. R., Seager, R., Cane, M. A., & Stahle, D. W. (2007) · Earth-Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2006.12.002 · Cited by 862 · see citing works
Introduction to Remote Sensing
(2010) · doi:10.1117/3.673407.ch1 · Cited by 762 · see citing works
Miller, J. D., Safford, H. D., Crimmins, M., & Thode, A. E. (2009) · Ecosystems · doi:10.1007/s10021-008-9201-9 · Cited by 747 · see citing works
Future dryness in the southwest US and the hydrology of the early 21st century drought
Cayan, D. R., Das, T., Pierce, D. W., Barnett, T. P., Tyree, M., & Gershunov, A. (2010) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0912391107 · Cited by 696 · see citing works
Long-term perspective on wildfires in the western USA
Marlon, J. R., Bartlein, P. J., Gavin, D. G., Long, C. J., Anderson, R. S., Briles, C. E., Brown, K. J., Colombaroli, D., Hallett, D. J., Power, M. J., et al. (2012) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1112839109 · Cited by 629 · see citing works
Forest responses to increasing aridity and warmth in the southwestern United States
Williams, A. P., Allen, C. D., Millar, C. I., Swetnam, T. W., Michaelsen, J., Still, C. J., & Leavitt, S. W. (2010) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0914211107 · Cited by 549 · see citing works
Determining the Power-Law Wind-Profile Exponent under Near-Neutral Stability Conditions at Sea
Hsu, S. A., Meindl, E. A., & Gilhousen, D. B. (1994) · Journal of applied meteorology · doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1994)033 · Cited by 500 · see citing works
Causes of Post‐Fire Runoff and Erosion: Water Repellency, Cover, or Soil Sealing?
Larsen, I. J., MacDonald, L. H., Brown, E., Rough, D., Welsh, M. J., Pietraszek, J. H., Libohova, Z., Benavides-Solorio, J. D. D., & Schaffrath, K. R. (2009) · Soil Science Society of America Journal · doi:10.2136/sssaj2007.0432 · Cited by 395 · see citing works
At what scales do climate variability and land cover change impact on flooding and low flows?
Blöschl, G., Ardoin‐Bardin, S., Bonell, M., Dorninger, M., Goodrich, D. C., Gutknecht, D., Matamoros, D., Merz, B., Shand, P., & Szolgay, J. (2007) · Hydrological Processes · doi:10.1002/hyp.6669 · Cited by 394 · see citing works
Mataix‐Solera, J., & Doerr, S. H. (2003) · Geoderma · doi:10.1016/s0016-7061(03)00185-x · Cited by 381 · see citing works
The effects of fire and water repellency on infiltration and runoff under Mediterranean type forest
Imeson, A. C., Verstraten, J. M., van Mulligen, E. J., & Sevink, J. (1992) · CATENA · doi:10.1016/0341-8162(92)90008-y · Cited by 372 · see citing works
The erosional impact of soil hydrophobicity: current problems and future research directions
Shakesby, R. A., Doerr, S. H., & Walsh, R. P. D. (2000) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/s0022-1694(00)00193-1 · Cited by 300 · see citing works
Savadogo, P., Sawadogo, L., & Tiveau, D. (2006) · Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment · doi:10.1016/j.agee.2006.05.002 · Cited by 232 · see citing works
Vieira, D. C. S., Fernández, C., Vega, J. A., & Keizer, J. J. (2015) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.01.071 · Cited by 215 · see citing works
Algorithm AS 181: The W Test for Normality
Royston, J. P. (1982) · Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C (Applied Statistics) · doi:10.2307/2347986 · Cited by 188 · see citing works
Carbon and water fluxes from ponderosa pine forests disturbed by wildfire and thinning
Dore, S., Kolb, T. E., Montes‐Helu, M., Eckert, S. E., Sullivan, B. W., Hungate, B. A., Kaye, J. P., Hart, S. C., Koch, G. W., & Finkral, A. J. (2010) · Ecological Applications · doi:10.1890/09-0934.1 · Cited by 186 · see citing works
Simulation of the Tropical Oceans with an Ocean GCM Coupled to an Atmospheric Mixed-Layer Model
Murtugudde, R. G., Seager, R., & Busalacchi, A. J. (1996) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009 · Cited by 159 · see citing works
Hydrologic synthesis: Across processes, places, and scales
Blöschl, G. (2006) · Water Resources Research · doi:10.1029/2005wr004319 · Cited by 142 · see citing works
Spatial and temporal controls on post-fire hydrologic recovery in Southern California watersheds
Kinoshita, A. M., & Hogue, T. S. (2011) · CATENA · doi:10.1016/j.catena.2011.06.005 · Cited by 130 · see citing works
Woody plant encroachment paradox: Rivers rebound as degraded grasslands convert to woodlands
Wilcox, B. P., & Huang, Y. (2010) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2009gl041929 · Cited by 113 · see citing works
Pelletier, J. D., & Orem, C. A. (2014) · Earth Surface Processes and Landforms · doi:10.1002/esp.3570 · Cited by 97 · see citing works
Increased dry season water yield in burned watersheds in Southern California
Kinoshita, A. M., & Hogue, T. S. (2015) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/1/014003 · Cited by 96 · see citing works
Cawson, J. G., Sheridan, G., Smith, H. G., et al. (2013) · Forest Ecology and Management · doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2013.08.016 · Cited by 90 · see citing works
Shrubs, streamflow, and the paradox of scale
Wilcox, B. P., Owens, M. K., Dugas, W. A., Ueckert, D. Ν., & Hart, C. R. (2006) · Hydrological Processes · doi:10.1002/hyp.6330 · Cited by 90 · see citing works
Long‐term trends in streamflow from semiarid rangelands: uncovering drivers of change
Wilcox, B. P., HUANG, Y., & Walker, J. W. (2008) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01578.x · Cited by 83 · see citing works
Medieval warming initiated exceptionally large wildfire outbreaks in the Rocky Mountains
Calder, W. J., Parker, D., Stopka, C. J., Jiménez‐Moreno, G., & Shuman, B. N. (2015) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1500796112 · Cited by 83 · see citing works
Simulated unsaturated flow processes after wildfire and interactions with slope aspect
Ebel, B. A. (2013) · Water Resources Research · doi:10.1002/2013wr014129 · Cited by 76 · see citing works
A regional estimate of postfire streamflow change in California
Bart, R. R. (2016) · Water Resources Research · doi:10.1002/2014wr016553 · Cited by 67 · see citing works
Granged, A. J. P., Jordán, A., Zavala, L. M., et al. (2010) · Hydrological Processes · doi:10.1002/hyp.7923 · Cited by 63 · see citing works
Cardenas, M. B., & Kanarek, M. R. (2014) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.07.016 · Cited by 57 · see citing works
Distributions-Oriented Verification of Ensemble Streamflow Predictions
Bradley, A., Schwartz, S., & Hashino, T. (2004) · Journal of Hydrometeorology · doi:10.1175/1525-7541(2004)005 · Cited by 51 · see citing works
Orem, C. A., & Pelletier, J. D. (2015) · Geomorphology · doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2015.01.006 · Cited by 49 · see citing works
Hydrological impact of forest fires and climate change in a Mediterranean basin
Versini, P., Velasco, M., Cabello, À., & Sempere‐Torres, D. (2012) · Natural Hazards · doi:10.1007/s11069-012-0503-z · Cited by 48 · see citing works
Predicting floodplain boundary changes following the Cerro Grande wildfire
McLin, S. G., Springer, E. P., & Lane, L. J. (2001) · Hydrological Processes · doi:10.1002/hyp.385 · Cited by 48 · see citing works
Zhou, Y., Zhang, Y., Vaze, J., Lane, P. N. J., & Xu, S. (2014) · Hydrological Sciences Journal · doi:10.1080/02626667.2014.961923 · Cited by 46 · see citing works
Wine, M. L., & Zou, C. B. (2011) · Forest Ecology and Management · doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2011.11.014 · Cited by 45 · see citing works
Self-citationWine, M. L., Ochsner, T. E., Sutradhar, A. K., et al. (2011) · Hydrological Processes · doi:10.1002/hyp.8306 · Cited by 45 · see citing works
Self-citationWine, M. L., Zou, C. B., Bradford, J. A., et al. (2012) · Journal of Hydrology · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.05.012 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
Self-citationDeep drainage sensitivity to climate, edaphic factors, and woody encroachment, Oklahoma, USA
Wine, M. L., Hendrickx, J. M. H., Cadol, D., et al. (2015) · Hydrological Processes · doi:10.1002/hyp.10470 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
Self-citationSearching for Simplicity in Hydrology
Dooge, J. C. I. (1997) · Surveys in Geophysics · doi:10.1023/a:1006557801884 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Rollins, M. G., Swetnam, T., & Morgan, P. (2000) · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 2
- Keane R E, Morgan P and White J D 1999 Temporal patterns of ecosystem processes on simulated landscapes in glacier national park, Montana, USA Landscape Ecology 14 311-29 · DOI
- Rollins M G, Morgan P and Swetnam T 2002 Landscape-scale controls over 20th century fire occurrence in two large rocky mountain (USA) wilderness areas Landscape Ecology 17 539-57 · DOI
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Burned forests impact water supplies
Hallema, D. W., Sun, G., Caldwell, P. V., Norman, S. P., Cohen, E. C., Liu, Y., Bladon, K. D., & McNulty, S. G. (2018) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-018-03735-6 · Cited by 193 · see citing works
- Authors
- Wine, M. L., & Cadol, D.
- Affiliations
- New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology (US)
- Corresponding author
- Wine, M L
- Venue
- Environmental Research Letters
- Publisher
- IOP Publishing
- Published
- 2016-08-01
- Volume
- 11
- Issue
- 8
- Pages
- 085006
- ISSN
- 1748-9326 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2516543944
- Cited by
- 96
- References
- 54
- Citations by year
- 2026: 9 · 2025: 11 · 2024: 17 · 2023: 12 · 2022: 9 · 2021: 10 · 2020: 10 · 2019: 7 · 2018: 7 · 2017: 4
- FWCI
- 4.45
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Environmental Research Letters (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Office of Experimental Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (1329470)
- New Mexico Geological Society
- Geological Society of America
- New Mexico Water Resources Research Institute
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Water Science and Technology › Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Keywords
- infiltration-excess overland flow, groundwater recharge, fire regimes, snowmelt, North American monsoon, New Mexico, fire suppression
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
