Climate change effects on vegetation distribution, carbon, and fire in California
Abstract
The objective of this study was to dynamically simulate the response of vegetation distribution, carbon, and fire to the historical climate and to two contrasting scenarios of climate change in California. The results of the simulations for the historical climate compared favorably to independent estimates and observations, but validation of the results was complicated by the lack of land use effects in the model. The response to increasing temperatures under both scenarios was characterized by a shift in dominance from needle‐leaved to broad‐leaved life‐forms and by increases in vegetation productivity, especially in the relatively cool and mesic regions of the state. The simulated response to changes in precipitation were complex, involving not only the effect of changes in soil moisture on vegetation productivity, but also changes in tree–grass competition mediated by fire. Summer months were warmer and persistently dry under both scenarios, so the trends in simulated fire area under both scenarios were primarily a response to changes in vegetation biomass. Total ecosystem carbon increased under both climate scenarios, but the proportions allocated to the wood and grass carbon pools differed. The results of the simulations underscore the potentially large impact of climate change on California ecosystems, and the need for further use and development of dynamic vegetation models using various ensembles of climate change scenarios.
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Total area burned in California is estimated to increase between +15 and 50%.
“Similarly, the total area burned in the state is estimated to increase from somewhere between +15 and 50% [10,15].”
From Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California (2016) · cites this paper as [10]
Many wildfire forecast models do not, or are unable to, include anthropogenic influences in a meaningful way.
“Many wildfire forecast models do not, or are unable to, include anthropogenic influences in a meaningful way [9,10,12,14].”
From Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California (2016) · cites this paper as [10]
Many models drop urban areas from the sample while retaining other systems heavily influenced by humans (e.g. the WUI, federal and state parks) or more generally omit anthropogenic variables.
“For instance, many models drop urban areas from the sample while retaining other systems heavily influenced by humans (e.g. the WUI, federal and state parks) [9,12] or more generally omit anthropogenic variables [10,14].”
From Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California (2016) · cites this paper as [10]
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- Authors
- Lenihan, J. M., Drapek, R., Bachelet, D., & Neilson, R. P.
- Affiliations
- Pacific Northwest Research Station (US)
- Oregon State University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Lenihan, James M.
- Venue
- Ecological Applications
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2003-12
- Volume
- 13
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- 1667-1681
- ISSN
- 1051-0761 (ISSN-L)
- 1939-5582
- OpenAlex
- W2120745888
- Cited by
- 311
- References
- 24
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 3 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 8 · 2022: 9 · 2021: 14 · 2020: 9 · 2019: 9 · 2018: 14 · 2017: 12 · 2016: 16 · 2015: 21 · 2014: 21 · 2013: 25 · 2012: 24
- FWCI
- 9.22
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Ecological Applications (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
- Keywords
- climate change impacts, dynamic vegetation modelling, vegetation distribution, ecosystem carbon, forest fires, fire regimes, precipitation change, temperature rise, vegetation productivity, tree-grass competition, soil moisture, climate change scenarios
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