Dynamic potential intensity: an improved representation of the ocean’s impact on tropical cyclones.
Open accessAbstract
To incorporate the effects of tropical cyclone (TC)‐induced upper ocean mixing and sea surface temperature (SST) cooling on TC intensification, a vertical average of temperature down to a fixed depth was proposed as a replacement for SST within the framework of air‐sea coupled Potential Intensity (PI). However, the depth to which TC‐induced mixing penetrates may vary substantially with ocean stratification and storm state. To account for these effects, here we develop a “Dynamic Potential Intensity” (DPI) based on considerations of stratified fluid turbulence. For the Argo period 2004–2013 and the three major TC basins of the Northern Hemisphere, we show that the DPI explains 11–32% of the variance in TC intensification, compared to 0–16% using previous methods. The improvement obtained using the DPI is particularly large in the eastern Pacific where the thermocline is shallow and ocean stratification effects are strong.
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The strength of the TC cold-wake feedback depends on a storm's intensity and translation speed as well as the ocean heat content and salinity structure, which vary regionally and on seasonal to multidecadal timescales.
“The strength of the feedback depends on a storm's intensity and translation speed as well as the ocean heat content and salinity structure, which vary regionally and on seasonal to multidecadal timescales (Shay et al., 2000;Balaguru et al., 2012Balaguru et al., , 2015Balaguru et al., , 2018)).”
From The tropical atlantic observing system (2019) · cites this paper as Balaguru et al., 2015
The Introduction describes SST cooling as a negative feedback on TC intensity, and the Mixing Length Formulation (section 3; page unavailable) makes mixing depend on storm wind speed, translation speed, and ocean stratification. The Results and Discussion describe regional differences, and the Methods use temperature and salinity profiles, but the paper does not establish that the relevant ocean conditions vary on seasonal-to-multidecadal timescales. (LLM, conf=0.86)
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- Authors
- Balaguru, K., Foltz, G. R., Leung, L. R., Asaro, E. D., Emanuel, K. A., Liu, H., & Zedler, S. E.
- Affiliations
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (US)
- NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratories (US)
- Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Richland Washington USA
- Applied Physics Laboratory University of Washington Seattle Washington USA
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology (US)
- University of Miami (US)
- University of Texas Institute for Geophysics (US)
- Corresponding author
- Foltz, Gregory R.
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2015-08-18
- Volume
- 42
- Issue
- 16
- Pages
- 6739-6746
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W1848233129
- Cited by
- 95
- References
- 34
- Citations by year
- 2026: 9 · 2025: 12 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 10 · 2022: 11 · 2021: 9 · 2020: 13 · 2019: 10 · 2018: 6 · 2017: 5 · 2016: 4 · 2015: 1
- FWCI
- 3.71
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Geophysical Research Letters (publishedVersion)
- DSpace@MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) (submittedVersion)
- OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- U.S. Department of Energy
- Office of Science
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Ocean Waves and Remote Sensing
- Keywords
- tropical cyclone intensification, potential intensity, upper ocean mixing, sea surface temperature cooling, ocean stratification, thermocline depth, ocean-atmosphere interaction, eastern Pacific
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