On solar geoengineering and climate uncertainty
Open accessAbstract
Uncertain climate system response has been raised as a concern regarding solar geoengineering. We explore the effects of geoengineering on one source of climate system uncertainty by evaluating the intermodel spread across 12 climate models participating in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison project. The model spread in simulations of climate change and the model spread in the response to solar geoengineering are not additive but rather partially cancel. That is, the model spread in regional temperature and precipitation changes is reduced with CO 2 and a solar reduction, in comparison to the case with increased CO 2 alone. Furthermore, differences between models in their efficacy (the relative global mean temperature effect of solar versus CO 2 radiative forcing) explain most of the regional differences between models in their response to an increased CO 2 concentration that is offset by a solar reduction. These conclusions are important for clarifying geoengineering risks regarding uncertainty.
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Solar geoengineering could be a moderating force against the uncertainties climate change already introduces.
“However, although it creates new risks, solar geoengineering could actually be a moderating force against the terrifying uncertainties climate change already introduces [374,509]”
From Tackling climate change with machine learning (2023) · cites this paper as [509]
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- Authors
- MacMartin, D. G., Kravitz, B., & Rasch, P. J.
- Affiliations
- California Institute of Technology (US)
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (US)
- Corresponding author
- MacMartin, Douglas G.
- Venue
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Publisher
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Published
- 2015-09-03
- Volume
- 42
- Issue
- 17
- Pages
- 7156-7161
- ISSN
- 0094-8276 (ISSN-L)
- 1944-8007
- OpenAlex
- W1929832008
- Cited by
- 20
- References
- 27
- Citations by year
- 2025: 1 · 2024: 2 · 2022: 3 · 2021: 5 · 2020: 2 · 2019: 1 · 2018: 2 · 2017: 1 · 2016: 2 · 2015: 1
- FWCI
- 1.64
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Geophysical Research Letters (publishedVersion)
- OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) (submittedVersion)
- CaltechAUTHORS (California Institute of Technology) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Battelle Memorial Institute (DE-AC05-76RL01830)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Geoengineering
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Keywords
- solar geoengineering, climate uncertainty, inter-model spread, GeoMIP, regional temperature change, regional precipitation change, CO2 radiative forcing, solar forcing, climate change projections
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