Identifying Modifiable Predictors of Long‐Term Survival in Liver Transplant Recipients with Diabetes Mellitus Using Machine Learning
Open accessAbstract
Diabetes mellitus (DM) significantly impacts long-term survival after liver transplantation (LT). We identified survival factors for LT recipients who had DM to inform preventive care using machine-learning analysis. We analyzed risk factors for mortality in patients from across the United States using the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR). Patients had undergone LT from 1987 to 2019, with a follow-up of 6.47 years (standard deviation [SD] 5.95). Findings were validated on a cohort from the University Health Network (UHN) from 1989 to 2014 (follow-up 8.15 years [SD 5.67]). Analysis was conducted with Cox proportional hazards and gradient boosting survival. The training set included 84.67% SRTR data (n = 15,289 patients), and the test set included 15.33% SRTR patients (n = 2769) and data from UHN patients (n = 1290). We included 18,058 adults (12,108 [67.05%] men, average age 54.21 years [SD 9.98]) from the SRTR who had undergone LT and had complete data for investigated features. A total of 4634 patients had preexisting DM, and 3158 had post-LT DM. The UHN data consisted of 1290 LT recipients (910 [70.5%] men, average age 54.0 years [SD 10.4]). Increased serum creatinine and hypertension significantly impacted mortality with preexisting DM 1.36 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.21-1.54) and 1.20 (95% CI, 1.06-1.35) times, respectively. Sirolimus use increased mortality 1.36 times (95% CI, 1.18-1.58) in nondiabetics and 1.33 times (95% CI, 1.09-1.63) in patients with preexisting DM. A similar effect was found in post-LT DM, although it was not statistically significant (1.38 times; 95% CI, 1.07-1.77; P = 0.07). Survival predictors generally achieved a 0.60 to 0.70 area under the receiver operating characteristic for 5-year mortality. LT recipients who have DM have a higher mortality risk than those without DM. Hypertension, decreased renal function, and sirolimus for maintenance immunosuppression compound this mortality risk. These predisposing factors must be intensively treated and modified to optimize long-term survival after transplant.
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The Yasodhara model was externally validated on a cohort of patients (University Health Network dataset from Toronto, Canada).
“Additionally, the model was externally validated on a cohort of patients (University Health Network dataset from Toronto, Canada).”
From Artificial Intelligence: Present and Future Potential for Solid Organ Transplantation (2022) · cites this paper as [16]
Yasodhara et al. demonstrated the value of AI for successful liver donor-recipient matching by including the metabolic status of the recipient.
“Recently, Yasodhara et al. demonstrated the value of AI for successful liver donor-recipient matching, by including the metabolic status of the recipient (16).”
From Artificial Intelligence: Present and Future Potential for Solid Organ Transplantation (2022) · cites this paper as [16]
The Yasodhara model performance achieved C-statistics between 0.58 and 0.66.
“The model performance achieved C-statistics between 0.58 and 0.66.”
From Artificial Intelligence: Present and Future Potential for Solid Organ Transplantation (2022) · cites this paper as [16]
Diabetes is a superior predictor of outcome than obesity in liver transplant patients with diabetes.
“AI and machine learning enabled the authors to analyze the huge and heterogeneous dataset and conclude that diabetes is a superior predictor of outcome than obesity, which resulted in changes in practice in donor-recipient matching.”
From Artificial Intelligence: Present and Future Potential for Solid Organ Transplantation (2022) · cites this paper as [16]
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- Authors
- Yasodhara, A., Dong, V., Azhie, A., Goldenberg, A., & Bhat, M.
- Affiliations
- University of Toronto (CA)
- Interdepartmental Division of Critical Care Medicine,Toronto,Ontario,Canada
- University Health Network (CA)
- Corresponding author
- Goldenberg, Anna
- Bhat, Mamatha
- Venue
- Liver Transplantation
- Published
- 2021-02-02
- Volume
- 27
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 536-547
- ISSN
- 1527-6465 (ISSN-L)
- 1527-6473
- PMC
- PMC8248095
- OpenAlex
- W3096756677
- Cited by
- 37
- References
- 29
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 11 · 2024: 8 · 2023: 8 · 2022: 2 · 2021: 5
- FWCI
- 3.43
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Liver Transplantation (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- Canadian Institute for Advanced Research
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Surgery › Organ Transplantation Techniques and Outcomes
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Surgery › Transplantation: Methods and Outcomes
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Hepatology › Hepatocellular Carcinoma Treatment and Prognosis
- Keywords
- diabetes mellitus, post-transplant diabetes mellitus, long-term survival, mortality risk factors, rapamycin, serum creatinine, hypertension, pregestational diabetes, machine learning prediction, Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients, Cox proportional hazards model, transplant recipients, preventive medicine, immunosuppression, post-transplant complications
- MeSH terms
- Machine Learning, Adult, Diabetes Mellitus, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Retrospective Studies, Risk Factors, United States, Liver Transplantation, Transplant Recipients
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