Cited by 8Electoral Systems and Political ParticipationSocial and Demographic Issues in GermanyAging, Elder Care, and Social Issues

The Oldest Societies in Asia: The Politics of Ageing in South Korea and Japan

Open access
Klein, Axel, Mosler, Hannes·2021·Global Political Demography

Abstract

This chapter is a comparative piece on political demographics of two East Asian democracies: Japan and South Korea (hereafter: Korea). Our analysis shows that in spite of certain differences the two countries share similar demographic developments with Korea often following in Japan’s footsteps with a time lag of one or more decades, a phenomenon we ascribe to the belated economic development in Korea. By systematically taking stock of political institutions, elections and voters, policies and immigration, we find that the Korean governments have shown themselves not only more active in fighting negative consequences of demographic change but also more open to immigration compared to their Japanese counterparts.

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

This chapter compares how Japan and South Korea are responding politically and through public policy to population ageing, with Korea generally trailing Japan demographically but catching up rapidly. It argues that demographic pressure is increasing, yet governments face voter reluctance to immigration and tend to rely on incremental, often stealthy labour migration and activation policies.

Key findings

  • Japan is demographically older: in 2019, the 65+ share was 28.4% in Japan versus 15% in Korea; the total fertility rate was 1.36 versus 0.92, after Korea became the first OECD country to fall below 1 in 2018 (0.97). The old-age dependency ratio was about 43.5 in both countries in 1990; Japan rose to 68.3 by 2019, while Korea fell to 36.2 by 2014 and then rose to 38.5 in 2019.
  • Political institutions responded differently: Japan lowered the voting age to include 18- and 19-year-olds in 2007; in the 2017 general election overall turnout was 53.68%, but only 47.87% of 18-year-olds and 33.25% of 19-year-olds voted. Korea since 2005 granted non-citizen foreign residents voting rights at local and regional levels, making it the only country in Asia to have introduced enfranchisement of foreigners. Age correlates positively with turnout, levelling off at 60+ in Korea and 70+ in Japan.
  • Fiscal burdens differ sharply: in 2017, social security spending was 23.6% of GDP in Japan versus 11.1% in Korea, and gross government debt was 250.4% of GDP in Japan versus 39.6% in Korea. Japan’s social security cost almost doubled from Yen 66.2 trillion in 1990 to Yen 123.7 trillion in 2020, consuming 34.9% of the national budget versus 17.5% in 1990; only 12.6% of Japan’s social security budget was designated as child support. Korea’s 2018 social welfare budget was Kwn 146.2 trillion, about 34.1% of the total budget, an increase of 12.9%.
  • Immigration policy diverges: Japan has been more restrictive, relying on trainee and educational visa programmes, and in 2018 allowed up to 345,000 low-skilled workers for five years. Korea saw registered foreigners rise from about 50,000 in 1990 to more than 2 million in 2016 (2.3 million registered, 4.5% of the population); marriage immigration grew from almost 5,000 marriages in 1990 to more than 20,000 in 2016, with about 72% of foreign spouses female. Korean attitudes toward immigrants became more negative, but this did not translate into anti-immigration party platforms; neither country so far features xenophobic populist parties.

Methods

  • Comparative case study of Japan and South Korea, drawing on secondary demographic, economic, and policy data from UNPD, World Bank, OECD, national ministries and statistics, and existing research.
  • Descriptive analysis of demographic indicators (age structure, TFR, OADR, life expectancy, population growth), electoral turnout by age, social spending, long-term care, child support, and immigration policies.
  • No new survey or experimental data; the chapter uses tables, figures, and policy document review to trace similarities and time-lag differences between the two countries.

Limitations

  • The chapter has no formal limitations section. It states that there is not yet enough research in Japan to understand the partisan positions of young voters; notes that Japanese foreign workforce data are incomplete and flawed (citing Hennings & Mintz); and says employment figures do not indicate the type or quality of jobs mothers find.
  • Evident from the text: the analysis relies on secondary and sometimes cross-national data, is largely descriptive, and does not provide causal identification; projections and policy effects are discussed but not tested.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1007/978-3-030-73065-9_8

Cites

30 of 30 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Claims the paper makes

0 of 85 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged

  • Findingown data

    Over the last decades, there has been a positive correlation (with very few exceptions) in both Japan and Korea between age and turnout that levels off at 60+ in Korea and 70+ in Japan.

    “Over the last decades, there has been a positive correlation (with very few exceptions) in both countries between age and turnout that levels off at 60+ in Korea and 70+ in Japan (cf.Figs. 3 and 4).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Premisenone given

    In Japan only citizenship provides residents with voting rights.

    “While in Japan only citizenship provides residents with voting rights”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Premisecitation

    The National Institute of Population Research forecasts that Japan's population will decrease to 100 million by 2053.

    “The National Institute of Population Research (IPSS, 2017b) published forecasts that predict a decrease in the number of people to 100 million by 2053.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites IPSS, 2017b

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Interpretationreasoning

    Longevity contributes considerably to the increase in the old-age dependency ratio.

    “Longevity contributes considerably to this effect.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Premisenone given

    Life expectancy at birth in Korea increased from 55.4 years in 1960 to 82.6 years in 2018.

    “Life expectancy at birth quickly increased in Korea from 55.4 years in 1960 to 82.6 years in 2018”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims. 54
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 23
  • The quote only partly states this claim. 1
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    In the 2017 Japanese General Election, overall voter turnout was 53.68%, 47.87% of 18 year olds and 33.25% of 19 year olds cast their ballot.

    “In the 2017 General Election, when overall voter turnout reached 53.68%, 47.87% of the 18 year olds and 33.25% of the 19 year olds cast their ballot.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    The number of foreign-born residents exercising their voting right in Korea is steadily increasing, but by 2020 it had not yet reached a level that would incentivize all political parties to address this group of voters in party platforms.

    “Although the number of foreign-born residents exercising their voting right is steadily increasing, by 2020 it has not yet reached a level that would incentivize all political parties to address this group of voters in party platforms.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisereasoning

    Korea's population is still growing, although the looming stagnation has already become apparent.

    “In comparison, Korea's population is still growing, although the looming stagnation has already become apparent.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Japan's population began to shrink in 2011, resulting in almost two million fewer Japanese in 2019 than in 2010.

    “Japan's population had already begun to shrink in 2011, which, in 2019, had resulted in almost two million fewer Japanese than in 2010 (COJ, 2020).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites COJ, 2020

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Premisenone given

    In 2012, other major political parties in Korea started to incorporate related issues and policy plans into their programmes.

    “and in 2012, other major political parties started to incorporate related issues and policy plans into their programmes.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • The quote only partly states this claim.

    Premisecitation

    Japan's old-age dependency ratio rose from about 43.5 in 1990 to 68.3 in 2019.

    “While Japan's ratio, however, began its rise from there on until it reached 68.3 in 2019”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Worldbank, 2020

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Japan and Korea are parliamentary democracies scoring similarly to European states on the Polity IV Project scale of country regimes.

    “Japan and Korea are parliamentary democracies scoring similarly to European states, for example, on the Polity IV Project scale of country regimes (CSP, 2016).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites CSP, 2016

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The UN Population Division expects that negative growth rates in Japan and Korea will be similar around 2050, as will the age structures of both populations.

    “That is why the UN Population Division expects that negative growth rates in Japan and Korea will be similar around 2050, as will the age structures of both populations.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites UNPD, 2020

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    One part of an explanation for the age-turnout correlation could be that voting is a learned experience, meaning older voters are more likely to turn up at polling stations than younger ones.

    “One part of an explanation could be that voting is a learned experience, which means that older voters are more likely to turn up at the polling stations than younger ones (cf.Goerres & Vanhuysse, 2012: 1).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Goerres & Vanhuysse, 2012: 1

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    Korea's population increased from 20 million to 42 million between 1949 and 1990, and by almost another ten million by 2017.

    “After having experienced a twofold increase from 20 million to 42 million between 1949 (right after the Republic's establishment) and 1990, Korea's population had increased by almost another ten million by 2017.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Korea became the first OECD country to fall below a total fertility rate of 1 in 2018 (0.97) and its TFR decreased further in 2019 (0.92).

    “Korea not only became the first OECD country to fall below 1 in 2018 (0.97) but the country saw its TFR decrease even further in 2019 (0.92) (COJ, 2020: 10).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites COJ, 2020: 10

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premiseown data

    In Korea, cohorts between 20 and 59 are of roughly equal size and retirees make up a smaller portion of the population.

    “In Korea, on the other hand, cohorts between 20 and 59 are of roughly equal size and retirees make up a smaller portion of the population (Fig. 2).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    Predictions for 2020 show a disproportionate middle-aged bulge in Korea with a simultaneous decrease in the youth population, a trend that will continue over the next twenty years.

    “Predictions for 2020 demonstrate a disproportionate middle-aged bulge with a simultaneous decrease in the youth population-a trend that will continue over the next twenty years.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The share of elderly people in Korea is growing steadily and is expected to rise by a more than twofold increase over the next three decades.

    “but growing steadily and expected to rise by a more than twofold increase predicted for the next three decades.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites UNPD, 2020

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Most people in Japan and Korea live in urban areas (2019: Japan 91.7%, Korea 81.4%).

    “most people live in urban areas (2019: Japan: 91.7%, Korea: 81.4%) (UNPD, 2020)”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites UNPD, 2020

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    As many studies showed, career options for mothers returning to the job market are drastically reduced, and many women work part-time and/or as irregulars with less social security and job protection than regular full-time employees.

    “As many studies showed, career options are drastically reduced, and many women work part-time and/or as irregulars with less social security and job protection than regular full-time employees.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    In Korea, one-parent families' child allowance was raised from Kwn 120,000 to Kwn 130,000 per month.

    “In addition, one-parent families' child allowance was raised from Kwn 120,000 to Kwn 130,000 per month (Ministry of Strategy and Finance, 2018: 96).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Ministry of Strategy and Finance, 2018: 96

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    In Korea, medical centres for childbirth were to be extended and an additional 150-450 public kindergarten facilities newly created.

    “Moreover, not only were medical centres for childbirth to be extended, but also an additional 150-450 different public kindergarten facilities to be newly created (Ministry of Strategy and Finance Ministry of Strategy and Finance, 2018: 30).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Ministry of Strategy and Finance, 2018: 30

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Prime Minister Abe Shinzô postponed the consumption tax increase from 8 to 10% two times (in 2014 and 2016), finally implementing it in October 2019, thus considerably increasing tax revenues.

    “Prime Minister Abe Shinzô postponed the increase from 8 to 10% two times (in 2014and 2016, Klein & McLaughlin, 2018: 56-57), finally implementing it in October 2019, thus considerably increasing tax revenues (cf.MoFJ, 2020).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Klein & McLaughlin, 2018: 56-57 source
    • cites MoFJ, 2020

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    In Korea, child-rearing allowances payment was increased so that a parent can receive 80% of her/his salary for the first three months of parental leave.

    “Child-rearing allowances payment was increased so that a parent can receive 80% of her/his salary for the first three months of parental leave”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Ministry of Strategy and Finance 2018: 66

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    While the public financial burden of demographic change is still comparatively small in Korea, Japanese governments have been looking for ways to fight an increasing gap in state budgets triggered by population ageing.

    “While the public financial burden of demographic change is still comparatively small in Korea, Japanese governments have been looking for ways to fight an increasing gap in state budgets triggered by population ageing (MoFJ, 2017, see for a comparative analysis of Japan, Germany and Italy Sciubbba 2012).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites MoFJ, 2017

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Sciubbba 2012

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    In Japan, Yen 35.9 trillion of the national budget for fiscal year 2020 was allocated to social security, complemented by Yen 84.4 trillion from insurance contributions and other sources to make a total social security budget of Yen 123.7 trillion.

    “In Japan, Yen 35.9 trillion of the national budget for the fiscal year 2020 was allocated to social security.These resources complemented another Yen 84.4 trillion from insurance contributions and other sources to make up a total budget for social security of Yen 123.7 trillion.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites MoF, 2020

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    In Korea, the majority of voters from their 20s to their 40s tend to vote liberal, while the majority of voters from their 50s upwards traditionally tend to vote conservative.

    “Whereas the majority of voters from their 20s to their 40s tend to vote liberal, the majority of voters from their 50s upwards traditionally tend to vote conservative (cf.Shin, 2001: 172-179).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Shin, 2001: 172-179 source
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisereasoning

    With tax increases being unpopular and Japan's industry pointing at the risk a tax increase could pose for the economy, the issue was often taken off the political agenda again.

    “With tax increases being unpopular and Japan's industry continuously pointing at the risk a tax increase could pose for the country's economy, the issue was often taken off the political agenda again.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisenone given

    The DPJ hoped that giving more money to families would help them pay for education and thus encourage them to have more children.

    “The DPJ hoped that giving more money to families would help them pay for education and thus encourage them to have more children.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    Younger voters in Japan and Korea are fewer in number but remain comparatively disinterested and unorganized in political matters.

    “On the other end of the age distribution, however, younger voters are not only fewer in number but remain comparatively disinterested and unorganized in political matters.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    In Japan, the state covered average long-term care costs per citizen aged 65-74 of Yen 14,000 annually, while for citizens 75 and older it was Yen 137,000.

    “the state covered average costs per citizen in the age cohort 65-74 of Yen 14,000 annually for long-term care, while the same amount for citizens 75 and older amounted to Yen 137,000.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites MoFJ, 2020

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

    Interpretationreasoning

    With a growing share of senior citizens, the ability of pension and health systems to sustain a satisfying standard of living at low costs is of high political significance.

    “Clearly, with a growing share of senior citizens, the ability of the pension and health systems to sustain a satisfying standard of living at low costs is of high political significance.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisenone given

    The DPJ child allowance policy had only been implemented halfway when the LDP regained power and shelved the increase.

    “In the end, the policy had only been implemented halfway when the LDP regained power and shelved the increase.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The largest increases among Korea's social welfare items were in employment at 30.4% and general social security by 35.9%.

    “The largest increases among the social welfare items were in employment at 30.4% and general social security by 35.9% (Ministry of Strategy and Finance, 2018: 104).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Ministry of Strategy and Finance, 2018: 104

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The social security budget consumed 34.9% of Japan's national budget in 2020, an increase from 17.5% in 1990.

    “The social security budget consumed 34.9% of the national budget in 2020, an increase from 17.5% in 1990 (MoFJ, 2020).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites MoFJ, 2020

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    Regional sentiments or regionalism has been a pervasive factor in Korean elections since the late 1980s and still is one of the major factors deciding elections.

    “Regional sentiments or regionalism has been a pervasive factor in elections since the late 1980s and still is one of the major factors deciding elections.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    By dedicating consumption tax revenue to lowering education costs, Abe addressed an important issue that has kept young adults in both Japan and Korea from having more children.

    “By doing so, he addressed an important issue that has kept young adults (in both countries) from having (more) children.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: The financial burden of an education system that promises better jobs mostly to those who attend expensive private schools and universities works as an impediment for young couples in Japan and Korea.
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    A bonus system for fathers took effect in Korea as of July 2018, amounting to up to Kwn 2 million.

    “and a bonus system for fathers took effect as of July 2018 which amounts to a sum of up to Kwn 2 million (Ministry of Strategy and Finance 2018: 66).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Ministry of Strategy and Finance 2018: 66

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Korea increased its budget for social welfare from Kwn 129.5 trillion to Kwn 146.2 trillion, about one-third (34.1%) of the total 2018 budget of Kwn 429 trillion, an increase of 12.9%.

    “Korea, too, increased its budget for social welfare from Kwn 129.5 trillion to Kwn 146.2 trillion, which is about one-third (34.1%) of the total 2018 budget of Kwn 429 trillion, and amounts to an increase of 12.9% in budget.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites No, 2017

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premiseown data

    The M-shaped curve phenomenon can be observed in both Japan and Korea, although the labour force participation rate of Japanese women is considerably higher than that of Korean females.

    “This phenomenon can be observed in both countries, although the labour force participation rate of Japanese women is considerably higher than that of Korean females.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    In Korea, public housing for newly wedded couples was to be increased by 30,000 households and favourable options provided for purchasing or renting houses or taking out loans.

    “Public housing for newly wedded couples was to be increased by 30,000 households and favourable options to be provided when purchasing or renting houses or when taking out loans.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Japan's social security expenditure reached 23.6% of GDP in 2017, similar to many European countries with considerably higher tax revenues.

    “Japan's expenditure, however, reached 23.6% of the country's GDP, similar to many European countries with considerably higher tax revenues (MoFJ, 2020).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites MoFJ, 2020

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Educating children in Korea and Japan is an economic burden and produces an 'educational spiral' that has an increasingly negative effect on fertility.

    “Educating children in Korea and Japan is an economic burden and, as Holthus and Klein (2010) suggest, produces an 'educational spiral' that has an increasingly negative effect on fertility.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Holthus and Klein (2010)

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    In 2017, 82.1% of Japanese women aged 25-29 were employed; for 30-34 and 35-39 the share does not decrease further than 75.2% and 73.4%, respectively, returning to 79.4% for 45-49 year olds.

    “In 2017, 82.1% of Japanese women of the age cohort 25-29 were employed.For the next two cohorts (30-34 and 35-39), the share does not decrease further than 75.2% and 73.4%, respectively, returning to 79.4% for the 45-49 year old (GoJ, 2020).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites GoJ, 2020

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisereasoning

    In both Japan and Korea, measures directly related to pregnancy, birth, childcare and other forms of child support have been discussed and sometimes implemented.

    “In both countries, measures directly related to pregnancy, birth, childcare and other forms of child support have been discussed and sometimes implemented.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    People living in the south-eastern region of Yȏngnam tend to vote conservatively while those who reside in the south-western region of Honam vote liberally.

    “People living in the south-eastern region of Yȏngnam tend to vote conservatively while those who reside in the south-western region of Honam vote liberally.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    Korea's general gross government debt in 2017 stood at 39.6% of GDP while Japan's state debt was 250.4%, the highest figure among all OECD countries.

    “In addition, Korea's general gross government debt in 2017 stood at 39.6% of the country's GDP while Japanese governments had driven their state debt to 250.4%, by far the highest figure among all OECD countries.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given

    In public policy fields of social welfare, political parties immediately feel negative reactions of voters to measures that reduce social welfare benefits or raise costs like co-payments.

    “It is in these public policy fields that political parties immediately feel negative reactions of voters to measures that reduce social welfare benefits or raise costs like co-payments.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Political reactions to demographic change are crucial and complex, but because consequences of demographic change develop incrementally, political decision makers can easily be tempted to procrastinate and postpone the search for appropriate policies into the future.

    “In offering an overview and comparison of Japan and Korea, this chapter has added evidence that political reactions to demographic change are crucial and complex but because consequences of demographic change develop incrementally, political decision makers can easily be tempted to procrastinate and postpone the search for appropriate policies into the future.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The attitude of Koreans is not necessarily in principle against immigrants as such, but against 'too many'-a phenomenon that can be observed in many other countries as well.

    “which makes clear that the attitude is not necessarily in principle against immigrants as such, but against 'too many'-a phenomenon that can be observed in many other countries as well.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Altogether, 2.3 million foreigners are registered as living in Korea, a share of 4.5% of the country's total population.

    “Altogether, 2.3 million foreigners are registered as living in Korea, a share of 4.5% of the country's total population (KOSIS).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites KOSIS

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Marriage immigration to Korea grew from almost 5,000 marriages in 1990 to more than 20,000 marriages in 2016, with wives mostly from China and Vietnam, and husbands from China or the US.

    “Yet another increase in the influx of foreigners was due to marriage immigration that also began to take off in the beginning of the 2000s, only to grow from almost 5,000 marriages in 1990 to more than 20,000 marriages in 2016 (KOSIS) with wives coming mostly from China and Vietnam, and husbands from China or the US.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites KOSIS

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisereasoning

    By 2020, Japan had not developed any kind of (social) integration policy but continued to open its doors to immigration.

    “As a result, by 2020, Japan had not developed any kind of (social) integration policy but continued to open its doors to immigration.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premiseown data

    Both Japan and Korea have seen a steady increase in foreign-born immigrants and mixed (multicultural) families since 1990, albeit to different degrees.

    “Both countries have seen a steady increase in foreign-born immigrants and mixed (multicultural) families since 1990, albeit to different degrees.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The perception of Korean residents about immigrants is increasingly negative, though the degree is not dramatic yet.

    “The perception of Korean residents about immigrants is increasingly negative though the degree is not dramatic, yet.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Choi & Lee, 2016 source
    • cites Kim & Kim, 2017

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Yoon, 2016
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Another 20% of foreigners working in Japan in late 2016 were students who were allowed to work up to 27 hours per week and since the late 1980s increasingly filled positions in restaurants, shops and services.

    “Another 20% were students who were allowed to work up to 27 hours per week and since the late 1980s increasingly filled positions in restaurants, shops and services (Hennings & Mintz, 2018).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Hennings & Mintz, 2018 source
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The Korean government evaluates immigrants as a determinant to the creation of new jobs and innovation in society and thus plans to invite more talented foreigners to contribute to the economy.

    “The government evaluates immigrants as a determinant to the creation of new jobs and innovation in society and thus plans to invite more talented foreigners to contribute to the economy (Immigration Policy Committee, 2012: 18).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Immigration Policy Committee, 2012

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationreasoning

    Given demographic development and budget restraints, immigration of younger working populations seems like a promising alternative solution to the challenges faced by both societies.

    “Given the demographic development and budget restraints described so far, the immigration of younger working populations seems like a promising alternative solution to the challenges faced by both societies.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The negative perception pressures political parties and the government to develop policies to alleviate related issues, which is why political parties have recently become increasingly interested in the issue of immigration and multicultural society.

    “Rather, it pressures political parties and the government to develop policies to alleviate related issues, which is why political parties have recently become increasingly interested in the issue of immigration and multicultural society.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Liu-Farrer referred to educational visas as 'disguised labor migration'.

    “Liu-Farrer referred to this as”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Liu-Farrer

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Pressure to act is clearly increasing due to labour shortages and a rapidly ageing and shrinking society-a trajectory Japan has been on for decades and Korea has entered with considerable speed.

    “Pressure to act, however, is clearly increasing due to labour shortages and a rapidly ageing and shrinking society-a trajectory that Japan has been on for decades and Korea has entered with considerable speed.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    In general, Koreans have become more reserved in their attitudes towards an increasingly multicultural society, which also has negative repercussions for the adaptation of immigrants.

    “In general, Koreans have become more reserved in their attitudes towards an increasingly multicultural society, which also has negative repercussions for the adaptation of immigrants (Choi & Lee, 2016;Kim & Kim, 2017;Yoon, 2016).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Choi & Lee, 2016 source
    • cites Kim & Kim, 2017

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Yoon, 2016
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The U.S. State Department in 2016 stated that the technical intern trainees programme 'has effectively become a guest-worker program' with many interns 'placed in jobs that do not teach or develop technical skills'.

    “The wide-spread abuse of this programme, however, led even the U.S. State Department in 2016 to state in its 'Trafficking in Persons Report' that the programme”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Iwamoto, 2016

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    One major factor keeping governments from allowing needed labour immigration is that ruling parties assume there is little enthusiasm among voters for substantial labour immigration from abroad, resulting in 'stealth policies' that open doors for mostly temporary foreign-born workers under labels such as 'internship programs'.

    “One major factor is that while highly qualified workers are usually welcome in specified sectors, the ruling parties assume there is little enthusiasm among voters for substantial labour immigration from abroad, resulting in 'stealth policies' that open doors for (mostly) temporary foreign-born workers under the label of, for example, 'internship programs'.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Ruling parties in Japan and Korea assume there is little enthusiasm among voters for substantial labour immigration from abroad.
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    In Japan, the number of registered foreigners more than doubled between 1990 and 2015 from one to more than two million, equal to 1.78% of Japan's total population.

    “In Japan, the number of registered foreigners more than doubled between 1990 and 2015 from one to more than two million, equal to a share of 1.78% of Japan's total population (IPSS, 2017a).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites IPSS, 2017a

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The current Basic Plan for Multicultural Families Policy in Korea stretches from 2018 to 2022 and envisages that state agencies assist not only in bride recruitment and family formation, but also in integration and family stability, raising the next generation, and integration into the formal labour market.

    “The current Basic Plan stretches from 2018 to 2022 and envisages that state agencies assist not only in bride recruitment and family formation, but also in integration and family stability, raising the next generation, and integration into the formal labour market (Ministry of Gender Equality and Family, 2018: 10-12; cf.Kim & Kilkey, 2017: 7-10).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Ministry of Gender Equality and Family, 2018

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Kim & Kilkey, 2017

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    While demand for foreign workers is expressed by labour-intensive industries in both countries, governments are also facing unwillingness of large parts of the population to allow (more or 'too much') immigration.

    “While the demand for foreign workers is expressed by labour-intensive industries in both countries, governments are also facing an unwillingness of large parts of the population to allow (more or 'too much') immigration.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given

    For the time being, pointing at the experience of other democracies with large-scale immigration seems to suffice to leave the narrative of labour immigration as a threat to social peace as it is in Japan.

    “For the time being, pointing at the experience of other democracies with large-scale immigration seems to suffice to leave the narrative as it is.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Work-life balance has been declared a political goal by governments in both Japan and Korea but remains unattainable to a large part for female and male employees.

    “Work-life balance has been declared a political goal by governments in both countries but remains unattainable to a large part for female and male employees (for Japan, cf.Aronsson, 2014; for Korea cf.Park, 2019)”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Aronsson, 2014 source
    • cites Park, 2019 source
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    According to Hennings and Mintz (2018: 112), the size of Japan's foreign workforce has been continuously underestimated, mainly because the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare has published incomplete and flawed data.

    “According to the count of Hennings and Mintz (2018: 112), the”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Hennings & Mintz, 2018 source
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    In both Japan and Korea, women are generally expected to take responsibility for raising their children and household work, even though numbers of housemen and spouses who take longer child-rearing leaves are slowly rising.

    “In both countries, women are generally expected to take responsibility for raising their children and household work, even though numbers of housemen and spouses who take longer child-rearing leaves from work are slowly rising.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    In migration research, Japan and Korea belong to the group of 'new immigration countries'.

    “In migration research, Japan and Korea belong to the group of 'new immigration countries' (Hollifield et al., 2014).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Hollifield et al., 2014

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisereasoning

    The political debate on immigration in Japan over the last three decades has been characterized by phases of different intensities and a number of different policy approaches, most of which resulted in backdoor immigration as a compromise, while the issue was mostly ignored in the public debate.

    “Consequently, the political debate on immigration over the last three decades has been characterized by phases of different intensities and a number of different policy approaches, most of which resulted in backdoor immigration as a compromise, while the issue was mostly ignored in the public debate.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
69 of 69
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Ruling parties in Japan and Korea assume there is little enthusiasm among voters for substantial labour immigration from abroad.

    “the ruling parties assume there is little enthusiasm among voters for substantial labour immigration from abroad”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The financial burden of an education system that promises better jobs mostly to those who attend expensive private schools and universities works as an impediment for young couples in Japan and Korea.

    “Surveys reliably show that the financial burden of an education system that promises better jobs mostly to those who attend expensive private schools and universities works as impediment for young couples.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The share of foreign-born citizens in Japan and Korea is still much lower than in European and Anglo-Saxon democracies.

    “With the share of foreign-born citizens still much lower than in European and Anglo-Saxon democracies”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Many in Japan and Korea look at social developments in the West and conclude that their country would be better off pursuing different approaches to counter labour shortages and an ageing society.

    “many in Japan and Korea look at social developments in the West and conclude that their country would be better off pursuing different approaches to counter labour shortages and an ageing society.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The political systems of Japan and Korea do not feature xenophobic, populist parties.

    “So far, and in contrast to many democracies in Europe, the political systems of Japan and Korea do not feature such parties.”
5 of 5

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

  • Japanese social-security funding sources do not add to the stated total

    Minor

    The stated ¥35.9 trillion from the national budget and ¥84.4 trillion from other sources add to ¥120.3 trillion, not ¥123.7 trillion.

    Reported 123.7 · recomputed 120.3

  • Korean foreign-resident growth is understated as twentyfold

    Minor

    An increase from about 50,000 to more than 2 million is more than fortyfold, not twentyfold.

    Reported 20 · recomputed 40

2 of 2

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Research works printed but not linked: 7

  1. Government of Republic of Korea. (2015). Plan for ageing society and population. Seoul: Government.
  2. Immigration Policy Committee. (2012). The 2nd basic plan for immigration policy, 2013–2017. Seoul: Ministry of Justice.
  3. Kang, H.-W. (2015). Enhancement of territorial representation in the electoral redistricting for the 20th national assembly election. Korean Politics Research, 24(2), 121–149.
  4. Kil, S. H., & Moon, C. (Eds.). (2010). Understanding Korean politics. New York: Suny Press.
  5. Ministry of Gender Equality and Family. (2018). The 3rd basic plan for multicultural families policy (2018–2022). Seoul: MoGEF.
  6. Tajiri, E. (2017). Gaikokujin roudousha ukeire shisaku to nihongo kyouiku [Policies to accept foreign workers and Japanese language education]. In E. Tajiri (Ed.), Gaikokujin roudousha ukeire to nihongo kyouiku [Acceptance of foreign workers and Japanese language education] (pp. 19–75). Hitsuji shobou.
  7. Yang, S. C. (2001). North & South Korean political systems (Revised ed.). Hollym.

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Authors
Klein, A., & Mosler, H.
Affiliations
University of Duisburg-Essen (DE)
Corresponding author
Klein, Axel
Venue
Global Political Demography
Published
2021
Pages
195-217
OpenAlex
W3195725331
Cited by
8
References
29
Citations by year
2026: 2 · 2025: 1 · 2024: 4 · 2023: 1
FWCI
11.83
Type
book chapter
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Springer eBooks (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
  • Universitätsbibliographie, Universität Duisburg-Essen (submittedVersion)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Electoral Systems and Political Participation
  • Health Sciences › Health Professions › General Health Professions › Social and Demographic Issues in Germany
  • Health Sciences › Health Professions › General Health Professions › Aging, Elder Care, and Social Issues
Keywords
aging, population aging, East Asian democracies, South Korea, Japan, demographic change, immigration policy, political institutions

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-06.

Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-06.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

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