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Cited by 330Species Distribution and Climate ChangeEcology and Vegetation Dynamics StudiesBotany and Plant Ecology Studies

Climate change increases risk of plant invasion in the Eastern United States

Bradley, Bethany A., Wilcove, David S., Oppenheimer, Michael·2010·Biological Invasions
DOI 10.1007/s10530-009-9597-y
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Abstract

Invasive plant species threaten native ecosystems, natural resources, and managed lands worldwide. Climate change may increase risk from invasive plant species as favorable climate conditions allow invaders to expand into new ranges. Here, we use bioclimatic envelope modeling to assess current climatic habitat, or lands climatically suitable for invasion, for three of the most dominant and aggressive invasive plants in the southeast United States: kudzu (Pueraria lobata), privet (Ligustrum sinense; L. vulgare), and cogongrass (Imperata cylindrica). We define climatic habitat using both the Maxent and Mahalanobis distance methodologies, and we define the best climatic predictors based on variables that best ‘constrain' species distributions and variables that ‘release' the most land area if excluded. We then use an ensemble of 12 atmosphere-ocean general circulation models to project changes in climatic habitat for the three invasive species by 2100. The combined methodologies, predictors, and models produce a robust assessment of invasion risk inclusive of many of the approaches typically used individually to assess climate change impacts. Current invasion risk is widespread in southeastern states for all three species, although cogongrass invasion risk is more restricted to the Gulf Coast. Climate change is likely to enable all three species to greatly expand their ranges. Risk from privet and kudzu expands north into Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, and New England states by 2…

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  • Empirical data that unambiguously capture expansions and shifts in alien species distributions owing to climate change are rare.

    “Although it is recognized that climate change influences biological invasions (Walther et al., 2009), empirical data that unambiguously capture expansions and shifts in alien species distributions owing to climate change are rare despite many bioclimatic models predicting that extreme events with the potential to trigger or alter the trajectory of invasions will become more frequent (Bradley, Oppe”

    From Scientists' warning on invasive alien species (2020) · cites this paper as Bradley, Oppenheimer, & Wilcove, 2010

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Authors
Bradley, B. A., Wilcove, D. S., & Oppenheimer, M.
Affiliations
Princeton University (US)
Corresponding author
Bradley, Bethany A.
ORCID
Venue
Biological Invasions
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published
2009-10-22
Volume
12
Issue
6
Pages
1855-1872
ISSN
  • 1387-3547 (ISSN-L)
  • 1573-1464
DOI
10.1007/s10530-009-9597-y
OpenAlex
W1966634897
Cited by
330
References
0
Citations by year
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FWCI
5.57
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed
Licence
www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
Locations
Biological Invasions (publishedVersion)
Funders
  • U.S. Department of Energy
  • High Meadows Foundation
  • U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
  • California Department of Fish and Wildlife
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecological Modeling › Species Distribution and Climate Change
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies
  • Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Plant Science › Botany and Plant Ecology Studies
Keywords
invasive plants, climate change, invasion risk, range expansion, Pueraria lobata, privet, Ligustrum sinense, Ligustrum vulgare, Imperata cylindrica, MaxEnt, Mahalanobis distance, general circulation model projections, southeastern United States, invasive species management

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