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Effective communication of uncertainty in the IPCC reports
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“They found that people generally interpreted the IPCC's categorical description of probabilities as less likely than the IPCC intended.”
From Uncertainty as a Form of Transparency: Measuring, Communicating, and Using Uncertainty (2021) · cites this paper as [16]
In the citing paper
“people took the word”
From Uncertainty as a Form of Transparency: Measuring, Communicating, and Using Uncertainty (2021) · cites this paper as [16]
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“Many studies have appeared in recent times about effective communication of uncertainties to policy makers, often focussing on the language used (Maslin, 2013; Budescu et al., 2011; Sterman, 2011).”
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McDonald, R. I., Chai, H. Y., & Newell, B. R. (2015) · Journal of Environmental Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.jenvp.2015.10.003 · Cited by 721
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“Recent research by Budescu, one of the authors of the original pioneering work on the interpretation of verbal probability expressions, has examined the effects of this policy on the understanding of climate change uncertainty by members of the general public.(29,30) Budescu and colleagues find that when people were a…”
BackgroundThe interpretation of IPCC probabilistic statements around the world
Budescu, D. V., Por, H.-H., Broomell, S. B., & Smithson, M. (2014) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2194 · Cited by 291
Self-citationThe principles and methods behind EFSA's Guidance on Uncertainty Analysis in Scientific Assessment
Benford, D., Halldorsson, T. I., Jeger, M. J., Knutsen, H. K., More, S. J., Naegeli, H., Noteborn, H. P. J. M., Ockleford, C., Ricci, A., Rychen, G., et al. (2018) · EFSA Journal · doi:10.2903/j.efsa.2018.5122 · Cited by 248
“Research has shown that presenting the numerical probabilities alongside verbal expressions of probability, e.g. ‘Likely (> 66% probability)’, increases the consistency of interpretation (Budescu et al., 2012, 2014).”
BackgroundUncertainty as a Form of Transparency: Measuring, Communicating, and Using Uncertainty
Bhatt, U., Antorán, J., Zhang, Y., Liao, Q. V., Sattigeri, P., Fogliato, R., Melançon, G., Krishnan, R., Stanley, J., Tickoo, O., et al. (2021) · Proceedings of the 2021 AAAI/ACM Conference on AI, Ethics, and Society · doi:10.1145/3461702.3462571 · Cited by 300
“[16] investigated how the general public interpret the uncertainty information in the climate change report published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).”
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“The uncertainty of the climate change occurrence often leads to people not fully understanding the different climate change predictions and, therefore, incorrectly analyzing the probability of its occurrence (Budescu et al., 2012).”
BackgroundLam, J., Koustas, E., Sutton, P., Johnson, P. I., Atchley, D. S., Sen, S., Robinson, K. A., Axelrad, D. A., & Woodruff, T. J. (2014) · Environmental Health Perspectives · doi:10.1289/ehp.1307923 · Cited by 214
“…statements such as “unlikely” or “very unlikely,” used in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports, and there are large individual differences in the interpretation of the statements that are associated with the public’s views and beliefs on climate change (Budescu et al. 2012).”
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Broomell, S. B., Budescu, D. V., & Por, H. (2015) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.03.001 · Cited by 217
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Guidance on Communication of Uncertainty in Scientific Assessments
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“• For the online versions of communication documents, interactive links and animations can help into adapting the information to the user’s needs and ways of understanding (Spiegelhalter et al., 2011; Budescu et al., 2012).”
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“This misunderstanding can be both genuine and due to general confusion about expressions of likelihood (101), but it may also derive from the adoption of a contrarian attitude as noted in Section 2.”
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“[32,62,115], and their interpretations of terms are less influenced by changes in subject content [62].”
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“For example, polarized perceptions of uncertainty are especially apparent for climate change with psychological studies revealing differences in beliefs, values, and action based on political affiliation (Budescu et al., 2012; Feygina, Jost, & Goldsmith, 2010; Heath & Gifford, 2006).”
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“Some researchers have argued that the IPCC’s conversion table is ineffective, mainly because the lexicon is not grounded in people’s intuitive and consensual understanding of what the phrases mean.(19) In Study 1, we developed two uncertainty lexicons that map phrases used by the IPCC to specific numerical ranges.”
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Self-citationCommunicating future sea-level rise uncertainty and ambiguity to assessment users
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The ideological divide and climate change opinion: “top-down†and “bottom-up†approaches
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“Budescu et al. (2012) asked 556 Americans to interpret the report’s use of words (rather than numerical percentages) to describe risk probabilities.”
Behavioral Science Tools to Strengthen Energy & Environmental Policy
Yoeli, E., Budescu, D. V., Carrico, A. R., Delmas, M. A., DeShazo, J. R., Ferraro, P. J., Forster, H. A., Kunreuther, H. C., Larrick, R. P., Lubell, M. N., et al. (2017) · Behavioral Science & Policy · doi:10.1177/237946151700300107 · Cited by 14
“Comprehension of information about climatechange uncertainty increases significantly, for instance, when the data are presented using both verbal and numerical descriptions—saying, for example, that a phenomenon is “likely” and also giving the odds (such as “greater than 66%”)—rather than leaving out the numbers.(26,2…”
BackgroundSelf-citationAssessing Large Language Models on Climate Information
Bulian, J., Schäfer, M. S., Amini, A., Lam, H., Ciaramita, M., Gaiarin, B., Huebscher, M. C., Buck, C., Mede, N., Leippold, M., et al. (2023) · International Conference on Machine Learning · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2310.02932 · Cited by 51
“Communicating the level of agreement and certainty for scientific findings can be crucial to adequately informing the audience (Budescu et al., 2012; Howe et al., 2019).”
BackgroundJuanchich, M., Sirota, M., & Butler, C. (2012) · Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes · doi:10.1016/j.obhdp.2012.01.002 · Cited by 51
Measuring Sentence-Level and Aspect-Level (Un)certainty in Science Communications
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“PROBABILITY has been widely recognized as one major source of uncertainty (Howard, 1988; Mosleh and Bier, 1996; Politi et al., 2007) and how to communicate probabilities effectively has long been an important question in science communication (Budescu et al., 2012; Sinayev et al., 2015).”
BackgroundNatural language of uncertainty: numeric hedge words
Ferson, S. A., O'Rawe, J., Antonenko, A., Siegrist, J., Mickley, J., Luhmann, C. C., Sentz, K., & Finkel, A. M. (2014) · International Journal of Approximate Reasoning · doi:10.1016/j.ijar.2014.11.003 · Cited by 53
Providing information for decision making: Contrasting description and simulation.
Hogarth, R. M., & Soyer, E. (2014) · Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition · doi:10.1016/j.jarmac.2014.01.005 · Cited by 52
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Self-citationLees, J., Jaeger, J. A. G., Gunn, J., & Noble, B. (2016) · doi:10.1080/09640568.2015.1116980 · Cited by 45
“Consistent with Budescu, Por, and Broomell (2012) and Leung et al. (2015), there is a need for uncertainty information to be documented in a way that can be easily and effectively transmitted to decision makers, the public, and other stakeholders but also in a way that facilitates depth in…”
BackgroundDiscounting environmental policy: The effects of psychological distance over time and space
Sparkman, G., Lee, N. R., & Macdonald, B. N. J. (2020) · Journal of Environmental Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.jenvp.2020.101529 · Cited by 53
Climate Projections and Uncertainty Communication
Joslyn, S. L., & LeClerc, J. (2016) · Topics in Cognitive Science · doi:10.1111/tops.12177 · Cited by 44
Harris, A., Corner, A., Xu, J.-M., & Du, X. (2013) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0975-1 · Cited by 43
“Following other researchers, from studies that have included numerical information (e.g., Budescu et al. 2009, 2012) or, like us, demonstrated extant issues associated with the interpretation of VPEs (e.g., Harris and Corner 2011; Patt and Dessai 2005), we therefore recommend including numbers in…”
BackgroundResultInfluentialMeeting Three Challenges in Risk Communication
Rakow, T., Heard, C. L., & Newell, B. R. (2015) · Policy Insights from the Behavioral and Brain Sciences · doi:10.1177/2372732215601442 · Cited by 44
Integrated Solutions for the Water-Energy-Land Nexus: Are Global Models Rising to the Challenge?
Johnson, N., Burek, P., Byers, E. A., Falchetta, G., Flörke, M., Fujimori, S., Havlík, P., Hejazi, M. I., Hunt, J. D., Krey, V., et al. (2019) · Water · doi:10.3390/w11112223 · Cited by 49
Untangling Trustworthiness and Uncertainty in Science
Covitt, B. A., & Anderson, C. (2022) · Science Education · doi:10.1007/s11191-022-00322-6 · Cited by 38
“Extensive scholarship has examined how people perceive and make sense of uncertainty (e.g., Broomell & Kane, 2017; Budescu et al., 2012; Dieckmann et al., 2017).”
BackgroundShepherd, T. G., & Lloyd, E. A. (2021) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-021-03246-2 · Cited by 42
“Partly this is because humans generally do not parse probabilistic information very well (Budescu et al. 2012; Sutherland 2013), and partly it is because the process of aggregation over similar but nevertheless distinguishable (and non-exchangeable) entities necessarily removes potentially crucial information about th…”
BackgroundForecasting forecasts: The trend effect
Hohle, S. M., & Teigen, K. (2015) · Judgment and Decision Making · doi:10.1017/s1930297500005568 · Cited by 35
Martire, K., & Watkins, I. (2015) · Science & justice : journal of the Forensic Science Society · doi:10.1016/j.scijus.2015.01.002 · Cited by 34
Managing geoenergy-induced seismicity with society
Trutnevyte, E., & Ejderyan, O. (2017) · Journal of Risk Research · doi:10.1080/13669877.2017.1304979 · Cited by 40
“As the audience can interpret and react differently to verbal or numeric probabilities (Doyle et al. 2014), Budescu, Por, and Broomell (2012) argue for using both approaches simultaneously.”
BackgroundMoss, R. H. (2015) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1549-1 · Cited by 36
Addressing uncertainty when projecting marine species' distributions under climate change
Davies, S. C., Thompson, P. L., Gomez, C. G., Nephin, J., Knudby, A. J., Park, A. E., Friesen, S. K., Pollock, L. J., Rubidge, E. M., Anderson, S. C., et al. (2023) · Ecography · doi:10.1111/ecog.06731 · Cited by 37
Communicating Weather Forecast Uncertainty: Do Individual Differences Matter?
Grounds, M. A., & Joslyn, S. L. (2018) · Journal of experimental psychology. Applied · doi:10.1037/xap0000165 · Cited by 32
Verbal Probabilities: An Alternative Approach
Teigen, K., Juanchich, M., & Filkuková, P. (2014) · Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology · doi:10.1080/17470218.2013.793731 · Cited by 32
The psychology of interpreting expert evaluative opinions
Martire, K., Kemp, R., & Newell, B. (2013) · Australian Journal of Forensic Sciences · doi:10.1080/00450618.2013.784361 · Cited by 32
Uncertainty, Intelligence, and National Security Decisionmaking
Mandel, D. R., & Irwin, D. (2020) · International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence · doi:10.1080/08850607.2020.1809056 · Cited by 31
Kause, A., de Bruin, W. B., Persson, J., Thorén, H., Olsson, L., Wallin, A., Dessai, S., & Vareman, N. (2022) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-022-03382-3 · Cited by 33
“The findings indicate that it could be difficult to standardize what likelihood terms such as “very likely” actually mean, unless those likelihood terms are presented together with the equivalent intervals such as “very likely (66–100%)” (Budescu et al. 2011; Budescu et al. 2014).”
BackgroundAvoiding a crisis of motivation for ocean management under global environmental change
Mumby, P. J., Sanchirico, J. N., Broad, K., Beck, M. W., Tyedmers, P. H., Morikawa, M. K., Okey, T. A., Crowder, L. B., Fulton, E. A., Kelso, D., et al. (2017) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.13698 · Cited by 32
Leung, W., Noble, B., Jaeger, J. A. G., & Gunn, J. (2016) · Environmental Impact Assessment Review · doi:10.1016/j.eiar.2015.11.001 · Cited by 29
How to Communicate Science to the Public?
König, L. M., Altenmüller, M. S., Fick, J., Crusius, J., Genschow, O., & Sauerland, M. (2024) · Zeitschrift für Psychologie · doi:10.1027/2151-2604/a000572 · Cited by 33
Jenkins, S. C., Harris, A., & Lark, R. (2018) · Journal of Behavioral Decision Making · doi:10.1002/bdm.2072 · Cited by 28
“That the ‘extremity effect’ continued to occur in the V-N format is of particular relevance to current literature, given recent recommendations to use a mixed format approach to express uncertainty (Budescu et al., 2009, 2012, 2014; Patt & Dessai, 2005; Witteman & Renooij, 2003).”
BackgroundCommunicating Risks: Principles and Challenges
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More than 50% or Less than 70% Chance: Pragmatic Implications of Single‐Bound Probability Estimates
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Climate scientists set the bar of proof too high
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The Perception of Daily Temperatures as Evidence of Global Warming
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“…(Goebbert et al. 2012; Howe and Leiserowitz 2013; Myers et al. 2013) as a special case of motivated cognition in interpreting ambiguous evidence (Nickerson 1998; Kunda 1990; Lewandowsky et al. 2013, Budescu et al. 2012; Unauthenticated | Downloaded 04/28/21 01:04 PM UTC McCright and Dunlap 2011).”
BackgroundSelf-citationIrwin, D., & Mandel, D. R. (2022) · Risk Analysis · doi:10.1111/risa.14009 · Cited by 24
THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ACCORDING TO THE IPCC
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“…2013, Jones, 2013, Freudenburg and Muselli, 2013, Brysse et al., 2013, Betz, 2013), and also about the confidence expressed in its conclusions (Budescu et al., 2012, Budescu et al., 2009, Curry and Webster, 2013, Moss and Schneider, 2000, Narita, 2012, Risbey and Kandlikar, 2007, Smithson et…”
Juanchich, M., Teigen, K., & Gourdon, A. (2013) · Judgment and Decision Making · doi:10.1017/s193029750000601x · Cited by 24
Sirota, M., & Juanchich, M. (2012) · Acta Psychologica · doi:10.1016/j.actpsy.2012.09.004 · Cited by 24
Storylines for Global Hydrologic Drought Within CMIP6
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“This analysis is unique in that it addresses the need consider concomitant changes to hydrologic drought features and surface water availability (Budescu et al., 2012; Shepherd & Lloyd, 2021), while focusing on identifying the likelihood storylines that could potentially stress water resource…”
BackgroundWinners and losers: communicating the potential impacts of policies
Brick, C., Freeman, A. L. J., Wooding, S., Skylark, W. J., Marteau, T. M., & Spiegelhalter, D. J. (2018) · Humanities and Social Sciences Communications · doi:10.1057/s41599-018-0121-9 · Cited by 30
Griffioen, A. M., van Beek, J., Lindhout, S. N., & Handgraaf, M. J. J. (2016) · Applied Studies in Agribusiness and Commerce · doi:10.19041/apstract/2016/2-3/4 · Cited by 26
Communicating forecasts: The simplicity of simulated experience
Hogarth, R. M., & Soyer, E. (2015) · Journal of Business Research · doi:10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.03.039 · Cited by 22
Climate change discourse: scientific claims in a policy setting
Fløttum, K., & Dahl, T. (2011) · doi:10.24989/fs.v33i3-4.1372 · Cited by 23
Communicating and reasoning with verbal probability expressions
Collins, P., & Hahn, U. (2018) · The Psychology of learning and motivation/The psychology of learning and motivation · doi:10.1016/bs.plm.2018.10.003 · Cited by 20
Mandel, D. R., & Irwin, D. (2020) · Judgment and Decision Making · doi:10.31234/osf.io/hm7zu · Cited by 21
Anchoring climate change communications
Harris, A., Por, H.-H., & Broomell, S. B. (2017) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1859-y · Cited by 21
“Budescu and colleagues (Budescu et al. 2009, 2012, 2014) have additionally shown that the correspondence between interpretations and the IPCC’s guidelines can be further increased with the use of a joint (verbal-numerical) presentation format.”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialSelf-citationRipberger, J., Bell, A., Fox, A., Forney, A., Livingston, W., Gaddie, C., Silva, C. L., & JENKINS-SMITHa, H. (2022) · Weather, Climate, and Society · doi:10.1175/wcas-d-21-0034.1 · Cited by 20
Combining probability with qualitative degree-of-certainty metrics in assessment
Helgeson, C., Bradley, R., & Hill, B. (2018) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-018-2247-6 · Cited by 20
Towards an evidence-based approach to communicating uncertainty in intelligence analysis
Dhami, M. K. (2018) · Intelligence & National Security · doi:10.1080/02684527.2017.1394252 · Cited by 20
Cry Wolf or Equivocate? Credible Forecast Guidance in a Cost-Loss Game
Bolton, G. E., & Katok, E. (2017) · Management Sciences · doi:10.1287/mnsc.2016.2645 · Cited by 20
Chen, M., Wang, J.-L., & Yin, Z. (2024) · Science communication · doi:10.1177/10755470231222500 · Cited by 19
“Therefore, people with a high level of hypothetical distance perceive a great extent of uncertainty regarding its occurrence and its potential adverse effects, and thereby may falsely underestimate the probability of its occurrence (Budescu et al., 2012).”
BackgroundKause, A., de Bruin, W. B., Fung, F., Taylor, A. L., & Lowe, J. A. (2020) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su12072955 · Cited by 25
“In addition, presenting uncertainty in climate information may delay public action on climate change [21], promote a “wait-and-see” approach [22], or increase public polarization about climate change [23].”
BackgroundDoyle, E., Thompson, J., Hill, S., Williams, M., Paton, D., Harrison, S., Bostrom, A., & Becker, J. (2023) · International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction · doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103948 · Cited by 18
The impact of psychological distance to climate change and urban informality on adaptation planning
Rana, I., Arshad, H. S. H., Jamshed, A., Khalid, Z., Younas, Z., Bhatti, S. S., & Ahmad, J. (2023) · Urban Climate · doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101460 · Cited by 18
“Additionally, as psychological distance is associated with whether an event is perceived as abstract or concrete (Wang et al., 2019), it can lead individuals to misinterpret climate predictions and analyze them incorrectly (Budescu et al., 2012).”
Lenhardt, E. D., Cross, R. N., Krocak, M. J., Ripberger, J., Ernst, S. R., Silva, C. L., & Jenkins, H. (2020) · Journal of Operational Meteorology · doi:10.15191/nwajom.2020.0805 · Cited by 18
Quantifying the qualities of language
Hancock, P. A., & Volante, W. (2020) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0232198 · Cited by 18
“Misinterpretations are then viewed as leading even to existential threats [33,34].”
BackgroundLewis, S. C., King, A. D., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E., & Wehner, M. F. (2019) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2019ef001273 · Cited by 23
“Interpretations of statements about climate change are also dependent on people's ideologies, and their prior views and beliefs about climate change issues (see Budescu et al., 2012, 2014; Kahan et al., 2012).”
Background
Metadata
- Authors
- Budescu, D. V., Por, H.-H., & Broomell, S. B.
- Affiliations
- Fordham University (US)
- Pennsylvania State University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Budescu, David V.
- Venue
- Climatic Change
- Published
- 2011-11-23
- Volume
- 113
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 181-200
- ISSN
- 0165-0009 (ISSN-L)
- 1573-1480
- OpenAlex
- W1994500457
- Cited by
- 261
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 10 · 2025: 16 · 2024: 10 · 2023: 19 · 2022: 15 · 2021: 22 · 2020: 25 · 2019: 56 · 2018: 17 · 2017: 15 · 2016: 8 · 2015: 20 · 2014: 17 · 2013: 8 · 2012: 3
- FWCI
- 30.03
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
- Locations
- Climatic Change (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Climate Change Communication and Perception
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Risk Perception and Management
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Keywords
- uncertainty communication, IPCC reports, regression to the mean, individual differences, political ideology, climate change beliefs, science communication
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