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Climate, conflict, and social stability: what does the evidence say?
Open accessAbstract
Are violent conflict and socio-political stability associated with changes in climatological variables? We examine 50 rigorous quantitative studies on this question and find consistent support for a causal association between climatological changes and various conflict outcomes, at spatial scales ranging from individual buildings to the entire globe and at temporal scales ranging from an anomalous hour to an anomalous millennium. Multiple mechanisms that could explain this association have been proposed and are sometimes supported by findings, but the literature is currently unable to decisively exclude any proposed pathway. Several mechanisms likely contribute to the outcomes that we observe.
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Metadata
- Authors
- Hsiang, S. M., & Burke, M.
- Affiliations
- National Bureau of Economic Research (US)
- University of California, Berkeley (US)
- Corresponding author
- Hsiang, Solomon M.
- Venue
- Climatic Change
- Published
- 2013-10-17
- Volume
- 123
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 39-55
- ISSN
- 0165-0009 (ISSN-L)
- 1573-1480
- OpenAlex
- W2137983397
- Cited by
- 342
- References
- 82
- Citations by year
- 2026: 12 · 2025: 22 · 2024: 30 · 2023: 22 · 2022: 26 · 2021: 35 · 2020: 28 · 2019: 24 · 2018: 33 · 2017: 53 · 2016: 18 · 2015: 15 · 2014: 18 · 2013: 4
- FWCI
- 56.58
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by
- Locations
- Climatic Change (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- SSRN Electronic Journal (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation
- U.S. Department of Energy
- Department of Energy and Climate Change
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Transboundary Water Resource Management
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Keywords
- climate change, violent conflict, socio-political stability, climate-conflict nexus, causal mechanisms, social stability
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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