Climate change, rainfall, and social conflict in Africa
Abstract
Much of the debate over the security implications of climate change revolves around whether changing weather patterns will lead to future conflict. This article addresses whether deviations from normal rainfall patterns affect the propensity for individuals and groups to engage in disruptive activities such as demonstrations, riots, strikes, communal conflict, and anti-government violence. In contrast to much of the environmental security literature, it uses a much broader definition of conflict that includes, but is not limited to, organized rebellion. Using a new database of over 6,000 instances of social conflict over 20 years – the Social Conflict in Africa Database (SCAD) – it examines the effect of deviations from normal rainfall patterns on various types of conflict. The results indicate that rainfall variability has a significant effect on both large-scale and smaller-scale instances of political conflict. Rainfall correlates with civil war and insurgency, although wetter years are more likely to suffer from violent events. Extreme deviations in rainfall – particularly dry and wet years – are associated positively with all types of political conflict, though the relationship is strongest with respect to violent events, which are more responsive to abundant than scarce rainfall. By looking at a broader spectrum of social conflict, rather than limiting the analysis to civil war, we demonstrate a robust relationship between environmental shocks and unrest.
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Weak regimes or social systems will be financially strained through the loss of tax revenues and foreign exchange earnings during the recession caused by weather shocks.
“weak regimes or social systems will be financially strained through the loss of tax revenues and foreign exchange earnings during the recession caused by weather shocks”
From The impacts of climate change on violent conflict risk: a review of causal pathways (2024) · cites this paper as Hendrix and Salehyan 2012
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“As a result, researchers have begun to quantify, for example, the relationship between temperature and/or precipitation and civil war and/or social unrest (106, 119).”
BackgroundSpatial pattern of climate change and farmer–herder conflict vulnerabilities in Nigeria
Madu, I. A., & Nwankwo, C. F. (2021) · GeoJournal · doi:10.1007/s10708-020-10223-2 · Cited by 67 · see citing works
Conflict on the urban fringe: Urbanization, environmental stress, and urban unrest in Africa
Gizelis, T.-I., Pickering, S., & Urdal, H. (2021) · Political Geography · doi:10.1016/j.polgeo.2021.102357 · Cited by 66 · see citing works
“…(2012: 24) argue that water availability most directly affect pastoral conflicts as rural communities are directly dependent on renewable resources threatening subsistence agriculture, while any effects on urban groups are arguably more indirect and complex according to Hendrix & Salehyan (2012).”
BackgroundOwain, E. L., & Maslin, M. (2018) · Palgrave Communications · doi:10.1057/s41599-018-0096-6 · Cited by 66 · see citing works
Connecting climate variability and conflict: Implications for empirical testing
Seter, H. (2016) · Political Geography · doi:10.1016/j.polgeo.2016.01.002 · Cited by 68 · see citing works
Sakaguchi, K. M., Varughese, A. M., & Auld, G. (2017) · International Studies Review · doi:10.1093/isr/vix022 · Cited by 64 · see citing works
Fuel to the fire: natural disasters and the duration of civil conflict
Eastin, J. (2016) · International Interactions · doi:10.1080/03050629.2016.1115402 · Cited by 63 · see citing works
Social work in Africa: Decolonizing methodologies and approaches
Ibrahima, A., & Mattaini, M. (2019) · International Social Work · doi:10.1177/0020872817742702 · Cited by 63 · see citing works
“This pressure manifests itself in various forms including migration and displacement, rebellion, extreme poverty, and interethnic conflict or in its extreme form, genocide (Mbah, 2016; Hendrix and Salehyan, 2012).”
Eck, K. (2014) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/0022343314522257 · Cited by 63 · see citing works
“9 Hendrix & Salehyan (2012) also find that social unrest is more likely in wetter years in a country-level study of a subset of states in Africa.”
Weather, wheat, and war: Security implications of climate variability for conflict in Syria
Linke, A. M., & Ruether, B. (2021) · Journal of Peace Research · doi:10.1177/0022343320973070 · Cited by 62 · see citing works
“…2009; Hsiang, Burke & Miguel, 2013; Maystadt, Calderone & You, 2015; van Weezel, 2020) and rainfall deficits (Fjelde & von Uexkull, 2012; Hendrix & Salehyan, 2012; Maystadt & Ecker, 2014; Raleigh, Choi & Kniveton, 2015; von Uexkull et al., 2016; Harari & La Ferrara, 2018; van Weezel, 2019;…”
Integrating Conflict Event Data
Donnay, K., Dunford, E., McGrath, E., Backer, D., & Cunningham, D. E. (2018) · Journal of Conflict Resolution · doi:10.1177/0022002718777050 · Cited by 60 · see citing works
“…Rød, and Cederman 2010), elements of physical geography such as terrain and the distance from the capital (Buhaug, Gates, and Lujala 2009), rainfall (Hendrix and Salehyan 2012), elections (Salehyan and Linebarger 2015), peacekeeping (Hultman, Kathman, and Shannon 2013), and battlefield losses…”
BackgroundTrends and triggers redux: Climate change, rainfall, and interstate conflict
Devlin, C., & Hendrix, C. S. (2014) · Political Geography · doi:10.1016/j.polgeo.2014.07.001 · Cited by 60 · see citing works
Self-citationCabot, C. (2017) · Hexagon series on human and environmental security and peace · doi:10.1007/978-3-642-29237-8 · Cited by 60 · see citing works
The Agricultural Impacts of Armed Conflicts: The Case of Fulani Militia
George, J., Adelaja, A., & Awokuse, T. O. (2021) · European Review of Agricultural Economics · doi:10.1093/erae/jbaa022 · Cited by 60 · see citing works
Verhoeven, H. (2014) · Geopolitics · doi:10.1080/14650045.2014.896794 · Cited by 60 · see citing works
Morales-Muñoz, H., Jha, S., Bonatti, M., Alff, H., Kurtenbach, S., & Sieber, S. (2020) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su12145702 · Cited by 59 · see citing works
Climate Change, Human Health, and Social Stability: Addressing Interlinkages
Sellers, S. P., Ebi, K., & Hess, J. (2019) · Environmental Health Perspectives · doi:10.1289/ehp4534 · Cited by 59 · see citing works
“Strong deviations in environmental factors directly associated with livelihoods, such as rainfall, are associated with civil unrest (Hendrix and Salehyan 2012).”
BackgroundConflict-induced IDPs and the Spread of Conflict
Bohnet, H., Cottier, F., & Hug, S. (2018) · Journal of Conflict Resolution · doi:10.1177/0022002716665209 · Cited by 58 · see citing works
Climate-driven risks to peace over the 21st century
Buhaug, H., Benjaminsen, T., Gilmore, E., & Hendrix, C. S. (2022) · Climate Risk Management · doi:10.1016/j.crm.2022.100471 · Cited by 56 · see citing works
Self-citation
- Authors
- Hendrix, C. S., & Salehyan, I.
- Affiliations
- William & Mary (US)
- University of North Texas (US)
- Venue
- Journal of Peace Research
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2012-01-01
- Volume
- 49
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 35-50
- ISSN
- 0022-3433 (ISSN-L)
- 1460-3578
- OpenAlex
- W2115231242
- Cited by
- 559
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 25 · 2025: 39 · 2024: 46 · 2023: 39 · 2022: 58 · 2021: 36 · 2020: 38 · 2019: 51 · 2018: 33 · 2017: 37 · 2016: 41 · 2015: 31 · 2014: 38 · 2013: 27 · 2012: 16
- FWCI
- 118.15
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Update notices
- correction (2012-04-11)
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- Locations
- Journal of Peace Research (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Army Research Office
- Army Research Laboratory
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Transboundary Water Resource Management
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › General Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Natural Resources and Economic Development
- Keywords
- climate change, rainfall variability, social conflict, environmental security, civil war, insurgency, political violence, riots, strikes, community conflict, environmental shocks, Africa
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