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Cited by 85Gender, Labor, and Family DynamicsFamily Dynamics and RelationshipsWork-Family Balance Challenges

The Effect of Gender Policies on Fertility: The Moderating Role of Education and Normative Context

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Baizan, Pau, Arpino, Bruno, Delclòs, Carlos Eric·2016·European Journal of Population
DOI 10.1007/s10680-015-9356-yPMC PMC4803818
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Abstract

In this paper, we aim to assess the extent to which individual-level completed fertility varies across contexts characterized by policies supporting different gender division of labor models. We examine key labor market and care policies that shape gender relations in households and in the public domain. We also consider the role of gender norms, which can act as both a moderator and a confounding factor for policy effects. We hypothesize that, by facilitating role compatibility and reducing the gendered costs of childrearing, policies that support gender equality lead to an increase in fertility levels and to a reduction in fertility differentials by the level of education. Using individual-level data from the European Union Survey on Income and Living Conditions for 16 countries, combined with country-level data, we analyze completed fertility through multilevel Poisson's models. We find that the national level of childcare coverage is positively associated with fertility. Family allowances, prevalence of women's part-time employment and length of paid leaves were also found to be positively associated with completed fertility, though the associations were not statistically significant. These variables show a significant positive pattern according to education. A high number of average working hours for men are negatively associated with completed fertility and show a strong negative pattern by educational level. The prevalence of gender-egalitarian norms is highly predictive of fertility levels, yet we found no consistent evidence of a weaker association of gender-equality policies in countries where egalitarian values are less prevalent.

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  • An increase in paid leave from 10 to 75 weeks would result in an increase in fertility of 0.09 children per woman for the low-educated subgroup and 0.24 for the higher educated one.

    “an increase in paid leave from 10 to 75 weeks would result in an increase in fertility of 0.09 children per woman for the low-educated subgroup and 0.24 for the higher educated one (Baizan, Arpino, and Delclòs 2016).”

    From Family Policies in Low Fertility Countries: Evidence and Reflections (2025) · cites this paper as Baizan, Arpino, and Delclòs 2016

    The Results report that an increase from 10 to 75 weighted paid-leave weeks is associated with fertility rising from 1.83 to 1.92 for low-educated women and from 1.56 to 1.80 for highly educated women—differences of 0.09 and 0.24. The claim's “would result in” wording presents this association as a causal effect, which the Results do not establish; they also describe the overall association as nonsignificant. (LLM, conf=0.87)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Increasing childcare coverage from 20 to 50 percent results in an increase in completed fertility of 0.2 children for low-educated women and 0.4 for more highly educated ones.

    “Baizan, Arpino, and Delclòs (2016) conclude that increasing childcare coverage from 20 to 50 percent results in an increase in completed fertility of 0.2 children for low-educated women and 0.4 for more highly educated ones.”

    From Family Policies in Low Fertility Countries: Evidence and Reflections (2025) · cites this paper as Baizan, Arpino, and Delclòs 2016

    The Results passage reports predicted increases of 0.2 children for low-educated women and 0.4 for highly educated women, but for childcare coverage rising from 10% to 50%, not 20% to 50%. It describes an association and model predictions rather than establishing that the increase in coverage causes those changes. (LLM, conf=0.91)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Some studies suggest the effect of leave policies is mainly on the first birth as opposed to higher order births, and some suggest the effect is larger for more highly educated individuals.

    “Some studies suggest that the effect appears to be mainly on the first birth (e.g., Brini 2020; Kalwij 2010) as opposed to higher order births, and some suggest that the effect is larger for more highly educated individuals (Baizan, Arpino, and Delclòs 2016).”

    From Family Policies in Low Fertility Countries: Evidence and Reflections (2025) · cites this paper as Baizan, Arpino, and Delclòs 2016

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Authors
Baizan, P., Arpino, B., & Delclòs, C. E.
Affiliations
Universitat Pompeu Fabra (ES)
ORCID
Arpino, Bruno
Venue
European Journal of Population
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published
2016-02
Volume
32
Issue
1
Pages
1-30
ISSN
  • 0168-6577 (ISSN-L)
  • 1572-9885
DOI
10.1007/s10680-015-9356-y
PMC
PMC4803818
OpenAlex
W2119813181
Cited by
85
References
99
Citations by year
2026: 8 · 2025: 8 · 2024: 15 · 2023: 12 · 2022: 2 · 2021: 8 · 2020: 11 · 2019: 5 · 2018: 10 · 2017: 4 · 2016: 2
FWCI
15.91
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • European Journal of Population / Revue européenne de Démographie (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • Florence Research (University of Florence) (submittedVersion, public-domain)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • RECERCAT (Consorci de Serveis Universitaris de Catalunya) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • Repositori digital de la UPF (Universitat Pompeu Fabra) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • Repositori digital de la UPF (Universitat Pompeu Fabra) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Padua Research Archive (University of Padova) (submittedVersion, public-domain)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Gender Studies › Gender, Labor, and Family Dynamics
  • Social Sciences › Demography › Family Dynamics and Relationships
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Work-Family Balance Challenges
Keywords
gender policy, fertility, gender division of labor, family allowances, part-time work, paid leave, gender norms, gender equality, education, fertility differentials, working hours

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