Cited by 7Archaeological Research and ProtectionUrban Design and Spatial AnalysisArchaeology and Historical Studies

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 46 of the 47 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; none of the 31 sources its claims cite is checked for support yet.

Beyond Replication: the Quantification of Route Models in the North Jazira, Iraq

Open access
de Gruchy, Michelle W.·2016·Journal of Archaeological Method and Theory

Overview

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

The paper proposes a quantitative method for statistically validating route models by converting modeled and preserved routes into point-overlap data and comparing optimal models against random models. Applied to long-distance hollow ways in the North Jazira, Iraq, it finds that ease, time, and distance generally fail to explain route locations, with time and distance sometimes significantly worse than random, suggesting cultural variables dominated route choice.

Key findings

  • Third millennium B.C.: the easiest model overlapped 9.3% of hollow ways versus a random-model mean of 11.6% (SD 1.2%, n=110), p=5.5%, not significant; the fastest model overlapped 16.5% versus 20.0% (SD 1.7%, n=160), p=3.9%, significant in the wrong direction; the shortest model overlapped 11.4% versus 14.1% (SD 1.4%), p=5.4%, not significant.
  • Fourth millennium B.C.: the easiest model overlapped 11.8% versus 12.2% (SD 0.7%, n=120), p=56%, not significant; the fastest model overlapped 17.7% versus 20.5% (SD 0.9%, n=90), p=0.2%, significant in the wrong direction; the shortest model overlapped 10.6% versus 12.0% (SD 0.7%, n=90), p=4.6%, significant in the wrong direction.
  • Local-scale overlap showed some segments near Al-Hawa and in the western fourth-millennium area aligning with ease, time, or distance, suggesting different variables may take precedence along different route segments and that people may optimize according to multiple variables.
  • The paper concludes that physical variables do not always take precedence; in the flat North Jazira, cultural variables are hypothesized as the dominant factors behind route choice, and the method can be extended to any modelable variable, including cultural ones.

Methods

  • GIS-based route modeling for the fourth millennium and early third millennium B.C. in the North Jazira Survey area, using only long-distance hollow ways connecting sites; hollow ways were digitized by Jason Ur from CORONA imagery, and site data came from the Fragile Crescent Database (37 third-millennium sites; 77 fourth-millennium sites).
  • Optimal route models represented single variables: easiest via ESRI ArcMap 10.0 Cost Path, fastest via GRASS R.Drain with R.Walk based on Naismith’s Rule, and shortest via straight lines between sites (for the shortest model, lines were drawn to nearest sites in each direction rather than every site pair).
  • Model lines were converted to point shapefiles and overlap with preserved hollow ways was counted within a single pixel distance; shortest-route points were spaced 70 m apart because hollow ways are generally 70–120 m wide. Random models with the same specifications were generated using Create Random Points and sequential sampling, then compared to optimal models using two-tailed Z-tests and bootstrapping.

Limitations

  • Stated: hollow-way formation dates are uncertain; the volume and frequency of repeated travel needed to create hollow ways is unknown; the fourth-millennium analysis is a “what if” exercise assuming routes extend back, and many fourth-millennium sites were reoccupied in the first millennium B.C., so western hollow ways may be younger.
  • Stated: the approach assumes route optimization is a spatial problem, which is not always true, especially in mountainous terrain where fastest and second-fastest routes may be spatially distant; near-optimal and optimal routes may differ insignificantly; bootstrapping can overstate significance; only overlap within a single pixel distance is considered.
  • Evident from the text: only three physical variables—ease, time, and distance—were tested, while cultural variables are hypothesized but not modeled; the flat study area with centers about 5 km apart may limit generalizability; results depend on the digitized hollow ways and the underlying DEM.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1007/s10816-015-9247-x

Cites

46 of 46 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

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Claims the paper makes

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  • Findingown data

    During the third millennium, the route between Al-Hawa (Site 1) and Site 23 appears to be explained by an optimization of ease and/or time, particularly once that route is more than two kilometers beyond Al-Hawa, despite a preserved segment located closer to Al-Hawa.

    “During the third millennium, the route between Al-Hawa (Site 1) and Site 23 appears to be explained by an optimization of ease and/or time, particularly once that route is more than two kilometers beyond Al-Hawa (figure 8a and b) despite a preserved segment located closer to Al-Hawa.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingcitation

    All 37 sites identified as third millennium are concentrated in the northeastern portion of the North Jazira survey area.

    “All 37 sites identified as third millennium are concentrated in the northeastern portion of this survey area (ibid.).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Findingnone given

    An optimization of distance may explain portions of the hollow way segment running past Site 23.

    “Meanwhile an optimization of distance may explain portions of the hollow way segment running past Site 23 (figure 9c).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Findingown data

    A sample population of 90 models matched an average of 20.5 percent of the hollow ways with a standard deviation of 0.9 percent.

    “A sample population of 90 models matched an average of 20.5 percent of the hollow ways with a standard deviation of 0.9 percent.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The routes whose wear resulted in the formation of hollow ways by the third millennium extend into the fourth millennium.
  • Findingown data

    The sample population of 90 random models overlapped an average of 12.0 percent of the hollow ways, with a standard deviation of 0.7.

    “The sample population of 90 models overlapped an average of 12.0 percent of the hollow ways with 0.7 standard deviation.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • It may state two separate claims as one. 35
  • Probably not a substantial claim. 43
  • The quote only partly states this claim. 2
  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data

    The easiest optimal route model overlapped 11.8 percent of the preserved hollow ways, while the generated sample population (n=120) of random models with the same parameters overlapped 12.2 percent of the hollow ways with standard deviation 0.7 percent.

    “The easiest optimal route model overlapped 11.8 percent of the preserved hollow ways, while the generated sample population (n=120) of random models with the same parameters overlapped 12.2 percent of the hollow ways with standard deviation 0.7 percent.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The routes whose wear resulted in the formation of hollow ways by the third millennium extend into the fourth millennium.
  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data

    Bootstrapping yields a probability of 3.60 percent for the easiest route model, which is not significant at the 95 percent level.

    “Bootstrapping, which overstates significance, yields a probability of 3.60 percent, which is not significant at the 95 percent level.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data

    The probability of the shortest optimal route model matching 11.4 percent of the hollow ways is 5.4 percent, which is not significant at the 95 percent level.

    “The two-tailed Z-Test indicated the probability of the optimal route model matching 11.4 percent of the hollow ways is 5.4 percent, which is not significant at the 95 percent level.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data

    The shortest route model matched 11.4 percent of the hollow ways, and the corresponding sample population of models matched an average of 14.1 percent of the hollow ways with standard deviation of 1.4 percent.

    “This model matched 11.4 percent of the hollow ways, and the corresponding sample population of models matched an average of 14.1 percent of the hollow ways with standard deviation of 1.4 percent.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data

    The probability of the easiest optimal model matching 9.3 percent of the hollow ways is 5.5 percent, and it is not possible to reject the null hypothesis at the 95 percent level that the easiest route model is any different than any random model with the same specifications.

    “The resulting two-tailed Z-Test reveals that the probability of the optimal model matching the location 9.3 percent of the hollow ways is 5.5 percent, and it is not possible to reject the null hypothesis at the 95 percent level that the easiest route model is any different than any random model with the same specifications.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data

    During the third millennium, the routes between Al-Hawa and Site 9 and between Al-Hawa and Site 29 appear to be accounted for by an optimization of distance (shortest route).

    “Meanwhile, the routes between Al-Hawa and Site 9 and Al-Hawa and Site 29 appear to be accounted for by an optimization of distance (shortest route, figure 8c).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.

    Findingnone given

    In case studies with normal-shaped data, two-tailed Z-Testing and bootstrapping provide similar results.

    “As will be seen in the case studies with normal-shaped data, two-tailed Z-Testing and bootstrapping provide similar results.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data

    Bootstrapping yielded a probability of 4.97 percent for the shortest route model, which is not significant at the 95 percent level.

    “Bootstrapping yielded a probability of 4.97 percent, which is not significant at the 95 percent level.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingnone given

    Optimization of distance aligns with the entire preserved route between Site 148 and Site 143, and with another route from Site 148 to Site 131, matching in particular the entire preserved segment nearest Site 148.

    “Optimization of distance also aligns with the entire preserved route between Site 148 and Site 143; as well as another route from Site 148 to Site 131, matching in particular to the entire preserved segment nearest Site 148 (figure 10).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • The quote only partly states this claim.

    Findingown data

    Bootstrapping indicated the easiest route model is not significant with a probability of 28.93 percent.

    “Bootstrapping also indicated the model is not significant with a probability of 28.93 percent.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The routes whose wear resulted in the formation of hollow ways by the third millennium extend into the fourth millennium.
  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data

    In the fourth millennium, the route between Al-Hawa and Site 23 again appears to be explained by optimization of ease and/or time, with additional alignment with the easiest route model further southeast along this possible long-distance route as it approaches Site 45.

    “In the fourth millennium, the route between Al-Hawa and Site 23 again appears to be explained by optimization of ease and/or time, and there appears to be additional alignment with the easiest route model further southeast along this possible long distance route as it approaches Site 45 (see figures 9a and b).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data

    The probability of the fastest optimal route model overlapping only 16.5 percent of the hollow ways is 3.9 percent, which is significant at the 95 percent level in the wrong direction.

    “The two-tailed Z-Test indicated that the probability of the optimal route model overlapping only 16.5 percent of the hollow ways is 3.9 percent, which is significant at the 95 percent levelin the wrong direction!”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • It may state two separate claims as one. The quote only partly states this claim.

    Findingown data

    Bootstrapping indicated a probability of 2.48 percent for the fastest route model, which also demonstrates significance at the 95 percent level.

    “Similarly, bootstrapping indicated a probability of 2.48 percent, which also demonstrates significance at the 95 percent level.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data

    A two-tailed Z-test indicates that the optimal model's overlap of 10.6 percent has a probability of 4.6 percent, which is significant at the 95 percent level.

    “A two-tailed Z-Test indicates the optimal model's overlap of 10.6 percent has a probability of 4.6 percent which is significant at the 95 percent level.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingnone given

    In all cases the distributions for the rate of overlap between random models and preserved routes are normal, though this is less apparent in the histograms with smaller n-values.

    “In all cases the distributions for the rate of overlap between random models and preserved routes are normal, though this is less apparent in the histograms with smaller n-values.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data

    Bootstrapping yields a probability of 1.10 percent for the fastest route model, which agrees with the Z-Test results that the results are significant again, in the wrong direction.

    “Bootstrapping yields a probability of 1.10 percent, which agrees with the Z-Test results that the results of the fastest optimal route model are significantagain, in the wrong direction.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The routes whose wear resulted in the formation of hollow ways by the third millennium extend into the fourth millennium.
  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingreasoning

    There are as many unique shortest routes as there are combinations of sites, and this quickly fills the entire study area.

    “Rather there are as many unique routes as there are combinations of sites and this quickly fills the entire study area (figure 4).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data

    The probability of the easiest route model overlapping 11.8 percent of the hollow ways is 56 percent, so this overlap is not significantly different from random at the 95 percent level.

    “The two-tailed Z-Test reveals the probability of the model overlapping 11.8 percent of the hollow ways is 56 percent, so this overlap is not significantly different from random at the 95 percent level.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The routes whose wear resulted in the formation of hollow ways by the third millennium extend into the fourth millennium.
  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data

    The probability of the fastest route model's overlap of 17.7 percent is 0.2 percent, which is significant at the 95 percent level.

    “The two-tailed Z-Test indicates the model's overlap of 17.7 percent has a probability of 0.2 percent, which is significant at the 95 percent level.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The routes whose wear resulted in the formation of hollow ways by the third millennium extend into the fourth millennium.
  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data

    Bootstrapping indicates a probability of 3.30 percent, also significant at the 95 percent level, though this may be overstated.

    “Likewise, bootstrapping indicates a probability of 3.30 percent, which is also significant at the 95 percent level; but may be overstated.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Premisenone given

    Grid cells allow humans to know where they are in space relative to boundaries by firing signals in overlapping triangular grids as they move around.

    “Grid cells allow us to know where we are in space relative to boundaries, be they a cliff or a wall, by firing signals in overlapping triangular grids as we move around.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisecitation

    Humans make use of landmarks to learn new routes and find their way along them, like chimpanzees.

    “Like chimpanzees, humans also make use of landmarks to learn new routes and find their way along them (Normand andBoesch 2009, Normand 2010).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Normand and Boesch 2009 source
    • cites Normand 2010 source
  • Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper may give no reason why it holds.

    Interpretationnone given

    Without specific evidence, there is no reason to assume that time or any other single variable played a significant role to other cultures.

    “In modern western society, time is an important variable, but without specific evidence there is no reason to assume that time or any other single variable play(ed) a significant role to other cultures.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: In modern western society, time is an important variable.
  • Probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductnone given

    The full population sample of random models is constructed using sequential sampling for a mean to determine how many random models are 'enough'.

    “The full population sample of random models is constructed using sequential sampling for a mean to determine how many random models are 'enough' (see figure 1 for an example).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductnone given

    The method simply asks to what degree any single variable matches.

    “It simply asks to what degree any single variable matches.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisecitation

    The part of the human brain responsible for navigation and wayfinding is also one of the most primitive parts of the brain.

    “The part of the human brain responsible for this task is also one of the most primitive parts of the brain (Burgess 2002).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Burgess 2002 source
  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationnone given

    Single variable optimization is not a difficult task in terms of cognitive ability; ants, wasps, mice, and chimpanzees are all capable of the skill.

    “Single variable optimization, is not a difficult task in terms of cognitive ability: ants, a wasps, mice, and chimpanzees are all capable of the skillas already discussed.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Premisecitation

    In Kneidl and Borrman's study, 89.54% of participants believed they had taken the shortest (time) route.

    “Once they returned to campus, they were asked in a survey how familiar they are with the city center, recorded if they felt they had taken the shortest (time) route (89.54% believed they had), and were asked to draw their route on a map.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Kneidl and Borrman 2011

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.

    Study design and conductreasoning

    The buffers should also reflect the quality of the underlying model data.

    “Likewise, the buffers should also reflect the quality of the underlying model data.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper may give no reason why it holds.

    Interpretationnone given

    These human universals in navigation can hardly account for the locations and plans of the many paths, routes, and roads humans have built around the world throughout history.

    “These universals, however, can hardly account for the locations and plans of the many paths, routes, and roads humans have built around the world throughout history.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Premisecitation

    People are significantly better and faster at optimizing shortest tours than 'pessimizing' longest tours in a traveling salesperson problem.

    “Another experiment, specifically looking at the human ability to optimize in a traveling salesperson problem found people were significantly better and faster at optimizing shortest tours than”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Chronicle et.al. 2006 source
  • Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.

    Interpretationreasoning

    It is entirely possible that people in the third and fourth millennia B.C. in Northern Mesopotamia optimized their travel according to different or even multiple variables, the relative importance of which varied along any given stretch of route.

    “It is entirely possible that people, such as those in the third and fourth millennia B.C. in Northern Mesopotamia, optimized their travel according to different or even multiple variables, the relative importance of which varied along any given stretch of route.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    The hollow ways in Northern Mesopotamia represent a palimpsest of features recording the past movements of people and animals rather than irrigation features.

    “Over the last 20 years, Wilkinson (1993Wilkinson ( , 2003: 111-117: 111-117) has successfully argued, in support of van Liere and Lauffray (1954/55) that these hollow ways represent a palimpsest of features recording the past movements of people and animals rather than irrigation features (as argued previously by McClellan andPorter 1995, andMcClellan et.al. 2000).”
    • Also stated in: § The Fourth Millennium · plain
      “The hollow ways are a palimpsest of path and routes worn over millennia from the repeated traction of people and animals across the landscape.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Wilkinson 1993 source
    • cites Wilkinson 2003 source
    • cites van Liere and Lauffray 1954/55

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim.

    Interpretationreasoning

    It is not expected that any of these route models will accurately and precisely match the preserved hollow way system where people actually walked.

    “It is not expected that any of these route models will accurately and precisely match the preserved hollow way system where people actually walked; each of the models simply represent what the route system of hollow ways would look like if travelers had optimized to the variable modeled one hundred percent of the time.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim.

    Interpretationnone given

    Each optimal route model represents what the route system of hollow ways would look like if travelers had optimized to the variable modeled one hundred percent of the time.

    “It is not expected that any of these route models will accurately and precisely match the preserved hollow way system where people actually walked; each of the models simply represent what the route system of hollow ways would look like if travelers had optimized to the variable modeled one hundred percent of the time.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisecitation

    In the traveling salesperson experiment, 31 of the 100 shortest tours produced were optimal, while none of the longest tours succeeded in maximizing the total length of the tour.

    “At the end of the experiment 31 of the 100 shortest tours produced were optimal, while none of the longest tours succeeded in maximizing the total length of the tour (ibid.).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites ibid.

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper may give no reason why it holds.

    Interpretationnone given

    Statistical validation of routes is not a problem of comparing two lines, but of turning those lines into data that can be placed meaningfully into a table.

    “The key to solving this question is realizing that statistical validation of routes is not a problem of comparing two lines, but of turning those lines into data that can be placed meaningfully into a table.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper may give no reason why it holds.

    Interpretationnone given

    Quantification of route models opens up routes as a new source of evidence.

    “Quantification of route models opens up routes as a new source of evidence.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.

    Study design and conductnone given

    The point spacing of the optimal route model should reflect the quality of the underlying data, with a single point per pixel.

    “The point spacing of the optimal route model should reflect the quality of the underlying datafoot_1 , with a single point per pixel.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Premisecitation

    Humans have three types of brain cells associated with navigation tasks, nicknamed 'grid cells', 'place cells', and 'direction cells'.

    “Like mice, we have three types of brain cells associated with these tasks nicknamed 'grid cells', 'place cells', and 'direction cells' (Burgess 2011).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Burgess 2011

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Humans do optimize, but not always to a single variable.

    “In this paper, it is argued that humans do optimize, but not always to a single variable.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductnone given

    In order to determine the statistical significance of any individual optimal route model, a sample population of random models must be constructed with the same specifications (n points, spaced d distance apart) as the optimal route model.

    “In order to determine the statistical significance of any individual optimal route model, a sample population of random models must be constructed with the same specifications (n points, spaced d distance apart) as the optimal route model.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Premisecitation

    Humans make use of dead reckoning, like mice and insects such as ants and wasps.

    “Like mice and even insects such as ants and wasps, humans make use of dead reckoning or getting to a known location by heading straight in its direction (Shettleworth 2010, Müller andWehner 1988).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Shettleworth 2010

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Müller and Wehner 1988 source
  • Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.

    Study design and conductcitation

    The Create Random Point tool in ESRI ArcMap 10.0 does not assume normality, but simply places dots randomly across the map.

    “This process does not assume normality, but simply places dots randomly across the map (ESRI 2014).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites ESRI 2014

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisecitation

    The hollow ways in Northern Mesopotamia have been grouped into three categories: those leading to agricultural fields outside tell settlements, those leading to open steppe and pasture grounds, and some long distance hollow ways which connect sites.

    “The hollow ways in Northern Mesopotamia have been grouped into three categories: 1. those which lead to the agricultural fields outside tell settlements, 2. those leading to the open steppe and pasture grounds, and 3. some long distance hollow ways which connect sites (Wilkinson 2003: 114-117, Ur 2003: 109-112, Casana 2013).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Wilkinson 2003 source
    • cites Ur 2003

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Casana 2013 source
  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Premisecitation

    There are some human universals in navigation and wayfinding.

    “First, there are some human universals in navigation and wayfinding.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductnone given

    The method described in this article does not assume anything about human rationality or behavior.

    “The significance of the method described in this article is that it does not assume anything about human rationality or behavior.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationnone given

    Understanding what made people travel to one place and not another at any particular time has the potential to inform about socio-political and economic relations, past commodity chains, and to fill in gaps in route preservation, possibly even predicting the location of crossroads and key junctions where archaeologists may expect to find important, as yet-undiscovered sites.

    “Understanding what made people travel to one place and not another at any particular time has the potential to inform about socio-political and economic relations, past commodity chains, and to fill in gaps in route preservation, possibly even predicting the location of crossroads and key junctions where archaeologists may expect to find important, as yet-undiscovered sites.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Premisecitation

    Place and direction cells inform humans of their egocentric location within the grid.

    “Place and direction cells inform us of our egocentric location within this grid (ibid.).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites ibid.

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.

    Interpretationnone given

    Quantification of route models reveals a new, yet-unexplored aspect of pre-or proto-culture: route choice.

    “Quantification of route models also reveals a new, yet-unexplored aspect of pre-or proto-culture: route choice.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The optimal route model lines must be converted into numbers that are placed into a table for quantitative analysis.

    “While it is already possible to visually examine the proximity between the optimal route models and the preserved routes in GIS at this stage, the optimal route model lines must be converted into numbers that are placed into a table for quantitative analysis.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Interpretationnone given

    The method is not limited to physical variables; any variable, including cultural variables, can be modeled and tested.

    “Furthermore, while this paper focused on physical variables, this method is not limited to these.”
    • Also stated in: § Discussion · plain
      “Any variable can be modeled and tested, including cultural variables.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Premisecitation

    In a previous study, the physical variable ease accurately predicted the location of the historically known High Road, a branch of the so-called Silk Road, through the North Central Zagros Mountains.

    “In a previous study, the physical variable ease accurately predicted the location of the historically known High Road, also a branch of the so-called”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites de Gruchy 2008

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationreasoning

    We cannot simply assume the importance of physical variables like ease, time, and distance; cultural variables need to be considered.

    “It means that we cannot simply assume the importance of physical variables like ease, time, and distance.Cultural variables need to be considered and this is where the methodology presented in this article has the potential to contribute the most for locations with preserved routes.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Premisecitation

    In mountainous regions, where the physical difference in cost between travelling through valleys and passes rather than up and over steep slopes and peaks is enormous, physical variables-especially ease-are expected to take precedence.

    “To provide a contrasting example to the present study: in mountainous regions where the physical difference in cost between travelling through valleys and passes rather than up and over steep slopes and peaks is enormous, physical variablesespecially easeare expected to take precedencefoot_5 .”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites foot_5

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationown data

    Different variables may take precedence along different segments of the routes, and people may optimize according to multiple variables along their journeys.

    “This suggests different variables may take precedence along different segments of the routes, lending support to the notion that people may optimize according to multiple variables along their journeys.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Premisecitation

    Bootstrapping can overstate significance.

    “It is possible to use a two-tailed Z-Testfoot_2 in this paper, since the data is normal in the following case studies (figure 2); but if this is not the case in a future study, bootstrapping is an alternative method of determining significance provided it is remembered that bootstrapping can overstate significancefoot_3 (Efron and Tibshirani 1993: 224-227).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Efron and Tibshirani 1993 source
  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The alignments of consecutive points lasting a kilometer or more in the third millennium seem significant, even if the variables are poor at accounting for the route system as a whole.

    “These alignments of consecutive points lasting a kilometer or more seem significant, even if the variables are poor at accounting for the route system as a whole during the third millennium.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationown data

    Neither time nor distance were important considerations in route choice in the fourth millennium.

    “The overlap rate of the easiest model was not significantly better or worse than that of a population of random models, while the significance of both the fastest and shortest models are indicate neither time nor distance were important considerations in route choice.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The hollow ways date back to the fourth millennium B.C.
  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationcitation

    All but a couple of the fourth-millennium sites in the western portion of the North Jazira Survey Area were reoccupied in the first millennium B.C., so it is also possible that the hollow ways in the western portion are younger.

    “Unfortunately all but a couple of these sites were reoccupied in the first millennium B.C. (Fragile Crescent Database 2013) so it is also possible that the hollow ways in the western portion of the North Jazira Survey Area are younger.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Fragile Crescent Database 2013

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationnone given

    So long as a variable can be modeled, it can be quantified against preserved routes wherever they occur in the world, both generally across an entire preserved system and specifically along individual route segments.

    “The strength of this method is that so long as the variable can be modeled, it can be quantified against preserved routes, wherever they occur in the world, both generally across an entire preserved system and specifically along individual route segments.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.

    Interpretationnone given

    The locations of the hollow ways of Northern Mesopotamia were not the result of aimless wandering but of purposeful travel, whether to fields, pasture, or longer-distance travel to other sites.

    “There is little doubt that, despite their lack of formal construction, the locations of the hollow ways of Northern Mesopotamia were not the result of aimless wandering, but purposeful travel whether this was to fields, pasture, or as is the case with those selected for this study: longer distance travel to other sites.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    The fastest route and the second fastest route to a location may be spatially distant from each other.

    “Anonymous Reviewer”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Anonymous Reviewer

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The authors may not put it forward as true. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Cultural variables provide the dominant factors behind route choice, not physical ones.

    “While I have not tested the physical variable”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: The landscape in the North Jazira Survey region is very flat, such that the physical cost difference of travelling one place instead of another is negligible.
    • Rests on an assumption: Centers in the region are spaced only about 5 km apart, a distance coverable by an unburdened person in about an hour, so that planning access to water along the way is unnecessary.
  • Probably not a substantial claim.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The optimization of routes is not always a spatial problem, particularly in mountainous terrain.

    “This approach assumes the optimization of routes is a spatial problem.This is not always the case, particularly in mountainous terrain.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationnone given

    The method offered removes any assumptions about travel and allows the route data to become a line of evidence in itself.

    “The method offered removes any assumptions about travel and allows the route data to become a line of evidence in itself.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.

    Study design and conductreasoning

    A two-tailed Z-test is useful because it informs both whether the model variable significantly accounts for the location of the hollow ways and whether it significantly does not.

    “A two-tailed Z-test is useful, because it not only informs if the model variable significantly accounts for the location of the hollow ways, but also if it significantly does not account for their location.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
67 of 67
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The routes whose wear resulted in the formation of hollow ways by the third millennium extend into the fourth millennium.

    “Having investigated the variables of ease, time, and distance for the third millennium, this section supposes the routes whose wear resulted in the formation of hollow ways by the third millennium do extend into the fourth millenniumfoot_4 .”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    In modern western society, time is an important variable.

    “In modern western society, time is an important variable, but without specific evidence there is no reason to assume that time or any other single variable play(ed) a significant role to other cultures.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The hollow ways date back to the fourth millennium B.C.

    “Assuming the hollow ways date back to the fourth millennium B.C., the results are similar.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The use of the hollow ways dates back to at least the early/mid-third millennium.

    “It is known that the use of the hollow ways date back to at least the early/mid-third millennium, yet none of the key physical variables account for their location at this time.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The landscape in the North Jazira Survey region is very flat, such that the physical cost difference of travelling one place instead of another is negligible.

    “The landscape in the North Jazira Survey region is very flat such that the physical cost difference of travelling one place instead of another is negligible.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The optimization of routes is a spatial problem.

    “This approach assumes the optimization of routes is a spatial problem.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Centers in the region are spaced only about 5 km apart, a distance coverable by an unburdened person in about an hour, so that planning access to water along the way is unnecessary.

    “Additionally, centers are spaced only about 5 km aparta distance that can be covered by an unburdened person in about an hour, negating the need to plan access to water along the way as a longer journey would.”
7 of 7

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

  • Third-millennium shortest-route bootstrap result is misclassified

    Minor

    A probability of 4.97 percent is below the 5 percent threshold for significance at the 95 percent level. Elsewhere, the paper calls a bootstrap probability below that threshold significant.

1 of 1

Citations

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

1 of the 47 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.

Research works printed but not linked: 11

  1. Aitken, R. (1977) Wilderness areas in Scotland. PhD Thesis. Aberdeen University.
  2. Allen, K. (1990) Modelling early historic trade in the eastern Great Lakes using geographic information systems IN Allen, K., S. Green, and E. Zubrow (eds.) Interpreting space: GIS and Archaeology, pp. 319-329.
  3. de Gruchy, M. (2008) The archaeology of routes and the nature of Uruk Mesopotamia’s expansion into the Central Zagros. University College London, Institute of Archaeology. M.A. Thesis.
  4. Earle, T. (2009b). Appendix 1: Coding of the cases of paths, trails, and roads discussed in the conference. In J. E. Snead, C. L. Erickson, & J. A. Darling (Eds.), Landscapes of movement: trails, paths, and roads in anthropological perspective (pp. 271–274). Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Museum of Archaeology and Anthropology.
  5. Kantner, J. (2012) Realism, reality, and routes: evaluating cost-surface and cost-path algorithms IN White, D.A. and S. Surface-Evans (eds.) Least cost analysis of social landscapes: archaeological case studies. University of Utah Press, pp. 225-238.
  6. McClellan, T., Grayson, R., & Ogleby, C. (2000). Bronze Age water harvesting in North Syria. In O. Rauault & M. Wäfler (Eds.), La Djéziré et l’EuphrateSyriens de la Protohistoire à la Fin du IIeMillénaire (pp. 137–155). Turnhout: Brepols.
  7. Naismith, W.W. (1892) Scottish Mountaineering Club Journal.
  8. Simon, H. (1957). Administrative behavior (2nd ed.). New York: MacMillan Company.
  9. Simon, H (1976). Administrative behavior. (3rd ed.). New York: MacMillan Company.
  10. Simon, H (1997). Administrative behavior. (4th ed.). New York: MacMillan Company.
  11. Ur, & Wilkinson. (2008). Settlement and economic landscapes of Tell Beydar and its hinterland Beydar studies I. Subartu XXI (pp. 305–327). Turnhout: Brepols.

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Metadata

Authors
de Gruchy, M. W.
Venue
Journal of Archaeological Method and Theory
Published
2015-04-19
Volume
23
Issue
2
Pages
427-447
ISSN
  • 1072-5369 (ISSN-L)
  • 1573-7764
OpenAlex
W2040763329
Cited by
7
References
47
Citations by year
2025: 1 · 2024: 1 · 2019: 4 · 2017: 1
FWCI
0.64
Type
journal article
Language
en
Locations
  • Journal of Archaeological Method and Theory (publishedVersion)
  • Durham Research Online (Durham University) (acceptedVersion)
  • Durham Research Online (Durham University) (acceptedVersion, other-oa)
  • Durham Research Online (Durham University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Archeology › Archaeological Research and Protection
  • Social Sciences › Urban Studies › Urban Design and Spatial Analysis
  • Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Archeology (arts and humanities) › Archaeology and Historical Studies
Keywords
statistical validation, hollow ways, physical variables, cultural factors, human travel, survey area

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