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Cited by 81Crime Patterns and InterventionsPolicing Practices and PerceptionsCriminal Justice and Penology

Predictable Policing: Measuring the Crime Control Benefits of Hotspots Policing at Bus Stops

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Ariel, Barak, Partridge, Henry·2017·Journal of Quantitative Criminology
DOI 10.1007/s10940-016-9312-y
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Abstract

A fairly robust body of evidence suggests that hotspots policing is an effective crime prevention strategy. In this paper, we present contradictory evidence of a backfiring effect. In a randomized controlled trial, aimed at reducing crime and disorder, London’s ‘hottest’ 102 bus-stops were targeted. Double patrol teams of Metropolitan Police Service uniformed officers visited the stops three times per shift (12:00–20:00), 5-times per week, for a duration of 15 min, over a 6 month period. Crucially, officers arrived and departed the bus stop on a bus, with significantly less time spent outside the bus stop setting. Outcomes were measured in terms of victim-generated crimes reported to the police and bus driver incident reports (DIRs), within targeted and catchment areas. We used adjusted Poisson-regression models to compare differences in pre- and post-treatment measures of outcomes and estimated-marginal-means to illustrate the treatment effect. DIRs went down significantly by 37 % ( p = 0.07) in the near vicinity of the bus stops (50 m), by 40 % in the 100 m catchment area ( p = 0.04) and marginally and non-significantly in the farthest catchment (10 %; p = 0.66), compared to control conditions. However, victim-generated crimes—the primary outcome measured in previous experiments—increased by 25 % ( p = 0.10) in the near vicinity, by 23 % ( p = 0.08) and 11 % ( p ≤ 0.001) within the 100–150 m catchment areas, respectively. These findings illustrate the role of bounded-rationality in everyday policing: reductions in crime are predicated on an elevated perceived risk-of-apprehension. Previous studies focused on clusters of addresses or public facilities, with police moving freely and unpredictably within the boundaries of the hotspot, but the patrol areas of officers in this experiment were limited to bus stops so offenders could anticipate their movements. Hotspots policing therefore backfires when offenders can systematically and accurately predict the temporal and spatial pattern of long-term targeting at a single location.

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  • Crime hot spot analysis and mapping primarily involves retrospective analysis, description, and visualization of areas with high crime concentrations based on spatial intelligence in order to allocate police resources and implement specific tactics.

    “This approach primarily involves the retrospective analysis, description, and visualization of areas with high crime concentrations based on spatial intelligence in order to allocate police resources and implement specific tactics (Ariel et al., 2016;Ariel & Partridge, 2017;Collazos et al., 2020;Corsaro et al., 2021).”

    From ‘Led by Intelligence': A Scoping Review on the Experimental Evaluation of Intelligence-Led Policing (2024) · cites this paper as Ariel & Partridge, 2017

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Authors
Ariel, B., & Partridge, H.
Affiliations
  • Hebrew University of Jerusalem (IL)
  • Manchester Metropolitan University (GB)
Corresponding author
Ariel, Barak
ORCID
Venue
Journal of Quantitative Criminology
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published
2016-06-29
Volume
33
Issue
4
Pages
809-833
ISSN
  • 0748-4518 (ISSN-L)
  • 1573-7799
DOI
10.1007/s10940-016-9312-y
OpenAlex
W2473404650
Cited by
81
References
11
Citations by year
2026: 9 · 2025: 5 · 2024: 4 · 2023: 8 · 2022: 4 · 2021: 4 · 2020: 13 · 2019: 12 · 2018: 8 · 2017: 12 · 2016: 2
FWCI
32.40
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Journal of Quantitative Criminology (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • e-space (Manchester Metropolitan University) (acceptedVersion)
  • Apollo (University of Cambridge) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Apollo (cc-by)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Crime Patterns and Interventions
  • Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Policing Practices and Perceptions
  • Social Sciences › Law › Criminal Justice and Penology
Keywords
bus stops, crime prevention, backfire effect, bounded rationality, crime control, London Metropolitan Police

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