China and Lithium Geopolitics in a Changing Global Market

May combine two claims.

No direct conflict has emerged between China and other big powers, or between China and the key producer states over access to lithium resources despite the trade war.

“No direct conflict has emerged between China and other big powers, or between China and the key producer states over access to lithium resources despite the trade war (Tu et al. 2020).”

• cites Tu et al. 2020Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

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Lithium demand in 2018 was 270,000 metric tons of Lithium Carbonate Equivalent (LCE) and is expected to reach more than 1,000,000 metric tons of LCE by 2025.

“Lithium demand in 2018 was 270,000 metric tons of Lithium Carbonate Equivalent (LCE) and is expected to reach more than 1,000,000 metric tons of LCE by 2025 (Egan 2020).”

• cites Egan 2020Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

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148 of the world's 200 Li-ion battery mega factories, either in production or planned, are located in China, whereas Europe and North America had only 32 mega factories scheduled in 2021.

“One hundred and forty-eight of the world's 200 Li-ion battery mega factories, either in production or planned, are located in China, whereas Europe (21) and North America (11) had only 32 mega factories scheduled in 2021 (Benchmark 2021a).”

• cites Benchmark 2021aNot matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

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Samsung, Panasonic, Apple and Tesla all source Li-ion batteries from China and hence share technological development.

“Samsung (South Korea) (KEDGlobal 2021); Panasonic (Japan) (The Economist 2021); and Apple and Tesla (US) (Global Times 2021)all source Li-ion batteries from China and hence share technological development.”

• cites KEDGlobal 2021Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites The Economist 2021Not matched

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• cites Global Times 2021Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

Investments in Li-ion batteries for EVs have reduced their costs by 80% since 2010.

“However, investments in Li-ion batteries for EVs have reduced their costs by 80% since 2010 (Fig. 5).”

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China is now the leading manufacturer of Li-ion batteries, controlling over 70% of global production.

“China is now the leading manufacturer of such batteries, controlling over 70% of global production (Benchmark Mineral Intelligence 2020)”

• cites Benchmark Mineral Intelligence 2020Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

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Batteries constituted 35% of lithium end-use products in 2015, its share is now 71%, and is expected to grow to 80% by 2025.

“while batteries constituted 35% of lithium end-use products (e.g., ceramics and glass, lubricating greases, continuous casting mould flux powders, polymer production, air treatment) in 2015 (Martin et al. 2017), its share is now 71% (USGS 2021) and is expected to grow to 80% by 2025 (Bohlsen 2019).”

• cites Martin et al. 2017 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites USGS 2021Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites Bohlsen 2019Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Lithium production has skyrocketed in a few years.

“As a result, lithium production has skyrocketed in a few years (Fig. 1).”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The US produced 9% of Li-ion batteries in 2019.

“The US produced 9% of Li-ion batteries in 2019 (Benchmark Mineral Intelligence 2020).”

• cites Benchmark Mineral Intelligence 2020Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

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In China, over half of the lithium demand is for batteries, and battery lifespan is being extended.

“In China, over half of the lithium demand is for batteries, and battery lifespan is being extended (Guo et al. 2021).”

• cites Guo et al. 2021Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

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The recycling rate of lithium in Li-ion batteries was less than 1% before 2015, while it reached 19% in 2018.

“In Li-ion batteries, the recycling rate of lithium was less than 1% before 2015, while it reached 19% in 2018 (Liu et al. 2021).”

• cites Liu et al. 2021Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

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Argentina has 19 million tons, Bolivia has 21 million tons, Chile has 9.2 million tons, Australia has 4.7 million tons, and China has 1.5 million tons of lithium reserves.

“According to USGS (2021) and Statista (2021a), Argentina has 19 million tons, Bolivia has 21 million tons, Chile has 9.2 million tons, Australia has 4.7 million tons, and China has 1.5 million tons.”

• cites USGS (2021)Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites Statista (2021a)Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

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Lithium geopolitics comprises elements of both conventional energy and renewables geopolitics but is not the same.

“This research has found that lithium geopolitics comprises elements of both conventional energy and renewables geopolitics but is not the same.”

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South America has around 75% of the world's lithium reserves, with Argentina, Chile and Bolivia representing the lithium triangle of producers.

“South America has around 75% of the world's reserves, with Argentina, Chile and Bolivia representing the socalled 'lithium triangle' of producers.”

• Also stated in: § 3.1 Lithium's Role in Electric Vehicles and the Lithium Market · plain

  “Around 75% of the world's known lithium reserves and over half of the world's lithium resources are located in the lithium triangle: Chile, Argentina and Bolivia.”

• cites USGS (2021)Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

• cites Statista (2021a)Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

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Lithium is a vital strategic mineral because most reserves are concentrated in South America or Australia, where there is no vertical integration.

“Here, in this argument, lithium is a vital strategic mineral, because most reserves are concentrated in South America or Australia, where there is no vertical integration (Kalantzakos 2020).”

• cites Kalantzakos 2020Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

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Other aspects of the lithium market still exhibit features of the old politics of fossil fuels, leading to the creation of hybrid geopolitics.

“However, other aspects of the lithium market still exhibit features of the old politics of fossil fuels, leading to the creation of hybrid geopolitics (Table 1)”

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In lithium production geopolitics, there is a similar inter-state structure to conventional energy geopolitics, although they are not entirely the same.

“What we then see in lithium production geopolitics is that there is a similar inter-state structure to conventional energy geopolitics, although they are not entirely the same.”

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The unequal global distribution of lithium resources shapes consumer states' strategies, as in traditional energy politics: achieving better and more productive renewable technology capacity creates a competitive race for market access to resources.

“This unequal global distribution of lithium resources shapes consumer states' strategies, as in the traditional energy politics: achieving better and more productive renewable technology capacity creates a competitive race for market access to resources.”

May combine two claims.

China has largely sought interdependency in supplies with other countries but also created new interdependencies in technological development and supremacy.

“Moreover, China has largely sought interdependency in supplies with other countries but also created new interdependencies in technological development and supremacy (Zhang and James 2022;Soligen 2021).”

• cites Zhang and James 2022 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source
• cites Soligen 2021Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

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Chinese companies control half of global lithium production and over 70% of Li-ion battery manufacturing.

“Chinese companies control half of global lithium production and over 70% of Li-ion battery manufacturing (Benchmark Mineral Intelligence 2020).”

• Also stated in: § 3.2 China's Policies and Ambition for Li-Ion Batteries · plain

  “Although China is the fifth-largest lithium producer country globally, Chinese companies control half of global lithium production and over 70% of Li-ion battery production (Benchmark Mineral Intelligence 2020).”

• cites Benchmark Mineral Intelligence 2020Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

The new renewable energy geopolitics emphasises the dispersed distribution or decentralisation of production capacity and the independence of states this generates.

“In contrast, the 'new' renewable energy geopolitics emphasises the dispersed distribution or decentralisation of production capacity and the independence of states this generates.”

May combine two claims.

The hybrid geopolitics causes states to pursue interdependence in resource access but, in parallel, interdependence in technological production in the form of Li-ion batteries.

“that is causing states to pursue interdependence in resource access but, in parallel, interdependence in technological production in the form of lithiumion (Li-ion) batteries.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

Traditional energy geopolitics focused on the concentrated distribution of fossil fuel resources and the conflicts and dependencies this created.

“In the past, traditional energy geopolitics focused on the concentrated distribution of fossil fuel resources and the conflicts and dependencies that this created.”

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Lithium geopolitics has potentially created new interdependencies and opportunities for conflicts, while also paradoxically enhancing state interindependence in renewable technology energy production.

“By focusing on China as a critical case, this article shows that lithium geopolitics has potentially created new (inter)dependencies and opportunities for conflicts, while also paradoxically enhancing state interindependence in renewable technology energy production.”

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Lithium resources and the production of Li-ion batteries are concentrated in the hands of a few states, creating the potential for new conflicts and dependencies to emerge.

“Lithium resources and the production of Li-ion batteries are concentrated in the hands of a few states, creating the potential for new conflicts and dependencies to emerge.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The Horizon 2020 project was implemented as a financial instrument for sustainable growth.

“The “Horizon 2020” project was implemented as a financial instrument for sustainable growth (European Commission 2013)”

• cites European Commission 2013Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

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Despite foreign dependency, China seems to dominate the market by aggressively buying lithium-related assets globally.

“Despite foreign dependency, China seems to dominate the market by aggressively buying lithium-related assets globally (S&P Global 2021).”

• cites S&P Global 2021Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

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Private electric car sales are projected to reach 66 million by 2030, with a 37% sales market share, and this will expand spending on Li-ion batteries.

“Private electric car sales are projected to reach 66 million by 2030 (with a 37% sales market share); this will expand spending on Li-ion batteries (Hsieh et al. 2020).”

• cites Hsieh et al. 2020 sourceNot checked — no full text of the source

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

Access to lithium and a reduced supply globally is still causing tensions.

“But access to lithium and a reduced supply globally is still causing tensions.”

May combine two claims.

China is an exemplar of this new hybrid geopolitics related to lithium, both in lithium supply and lithium-based technological development and production.

“China is an exemplar of this new hybrid geopolitics related to lithium, both in lithium supply and lithium-based technological development and production.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The EU Raw Materials 2050 Vision and Technology and Innovation Roadmap was released to ensure reliable access to raw materials, including lithium.

“and the “EU Raw Materials 2050 Vision and Technology and Innovation Roadmap” was released to ensure reliable access to raw materials, including lithium (VERAM 2016).”

• cites VERAM 2016Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

Increasing interdependency in lithium-based technological production reduces the potential for conflict between states due to the economic benefits derived from cooperation.

“Paradoxically, increasing interdependency in lithium-based technological production reduces the potential for conflict between states due to the economic benefits derived from cooperation.”

May combine two claims.

Domestic demand is being created, which generates pressure for more supply-oriented policies.

“Domestic demand is being created, which generates pressure for more supply-oriented policies.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

Such national interest orientation is not leading to conflict-oriented policies to access lithium resources at the international level for now as this race includes private-public partnerships.

“Such national interest orientation is not leading to conflictoriented policies to access lithium resources at the international level for now as this race includes private-public partnerships.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).

In general, green energy is not as green as it is portrayed in contemporary discourses.

“In general, green energy is not as green as it is portrayed in contemporary discourses.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

The European Commission is aware of lithium's criticality for battery technology.

“The European Commission (2017) is also aware of lithium's criticality for battery technology.”

• cites European Commission 2017Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

Chinese market dominance is also evident in the context of the US-China trade wars.

“Chinese market dominance is also evident in the context of the US-China trade wars.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

The national interests of big powers are not moving towards collaboration in the lithium market.

“However, it is known that the national interests of big powers are not moving towards collaboration in the lithium market.”

May combine two claims.

China achieves its market dominance partly through domestic investment and partly via foreign direct investment.

“but achieves this market dominance partly through domestic investment and partly via foreign direct investment”

May combine two claims.

Mutual interdependence leads to reciprocal interaction and the growth of technological production capacity in all states.

“As in renewables geopolitics, mutual interdependence leads to reciprocal interaction and the growth of technological production capacity in all states.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

The US and Europe have recently taken steps for increasing domestic production of Li-ion batteries and their recycling, which indirectly helps China's robustness.

“In addition, the US and Europe have recently taken steps for increasing domestic production of Li-ion batteries and their recycling, which indirectly helps China's robustness.”

• AssumptionRests on an assumption: The US and Europe have recently taken steps for increasing domestic production of Li-ion batteries and their recycling.

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

The Government's policies have been able to change the situation in the market.

“The Government's policies have been able to change the situation in the market.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

The game-changer role of China pushes others to use incentives and technology-oriented policies for now.

“The game-changer role of China pushes others to use incentives and technology-oriented policies for now.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

Global sales of EVs are expected to climb from 1.7 million in 2020 to 26 million in 2030.

“Global sales of EVs are expected to climb from 1.7 million in 2020 to 26 million in 2030 (Kumagai 2021).”

• cites Kumagai 2021Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

May combine two claims.

China reflects these market dynamics, as the strongest actor, while following two main strategies: sourcing lithium from supplier states through developing interdependencies and also leading Li-ion battery technological development, which creates interdependency with other countries.

“China reflects these market dynamics, as the strongest actor, while following two main strategies: sourcing lithium from supplier states through developing interdependencies and also leading Li-ion battery technological development, which creates interdependency with other countries.”

May combine two claims.

Other big powers are dependent on China's power, but supply and technological interdependency has prevented conflict until now.

“Other big powers are dependent on China's power, but supply and technological interdependency has prevented conflict until now.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

China has achieved keeping stability in the political-economic market and having sustainable policies so far.

“It also includes keeping stability in the political-economic market and having sustainable policies, which China has achieved so far.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

Such asymmetrical relations could be creating new dependencies for producers themselves.

“such asymmetrical relations could be creating new dependencies for producers themselves.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

China is resilient, as shown by the US-China trade war.

“Is China resilient?The US-China trade war has shown us, yes.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

Competition in the lithium market could become integrated with international political dynamics related to big powers' foreign policy orientations.

“However, competition in the lithium market could become integrated with international political dynamics related to big powers' foreign policy orientations.”

May combine two claims.

Lithium politics is still not similar to petropolitics, but there is a growing market and the possibility of changing dynamics in international politics.

“Lithium politics is still not similar to petropolitics, but there is a growing market and the possibility of changing dynamics in international politics.”

May combine two claims.

China has become a dominant power in the market; however, controlling the market both economically and politically has not been achieved yet.

“China has become a dominant power in the market; however, controlling the market both economically and politically has not been achieved yet.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based).

China is a game-changer in the lithium market despite the lack of domestic production.

“Compared to the US experiences in the global oil market, China is a game-changer in the lithium market despite the lack of domestic production.”

Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

Interdependence with China and industrialised states is a feature of lithium geopolitics.

“While interdependence with China and industrialised states is a feature of lithium geopolitics”