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Runaway and moist greenhouse atmospheres and the evolution of Earth and Venus

Kasting, James F.·1988·Icarus

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Abstract

A one-dimensional climate model is used to study the response of an Earth-like atmosphere to large increases in solar flux. For fully saturated, cloud-free conditions, the critical solar flux at which a runaway greenhouse occurs, that is, the oceans evaporate entirely, is found to be 1.4 times the present flux at Earth's orbit (S0). This value is close to the flux expected at Venus' orbit early in solar system history. Is is nearly independent of the amount of CO2 present in the atmosphere, but is sensitive to the H2O absorption coefficient in the 8- to 12-micrometers window region. Clouds should tend to depress the surface temperature on a warm, moist planet; thus, Venus may originally have had oceans if its initial water endowment was close to that of Earth. It lost them early in its history, however, because of rapid photodissociation of water vapor followed by escape of hydrogen to space. The critical solar flux above which water is rapidly lost could be as low as 1.1S0. The surface temperature of a runaway greenhouse atmosphere containing a full ocean's worth of water would have been in excess of 1500 degrees K--above the solidus for silicate rocks. The presence of such a steam atmosphere during accretion may have significantly influenced the early thermal evolution of both Earth and Venus.

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Method
Moist Convection Is Most Vigorous at Intermediate Atmospheric Humidity
Seeley, J. T., & Wordsworth, R. (2023) · The Planetary Science Journal · doi:10.3847/psj/acb0cb · Cited by 9
“Looking beyond Earth, there is strong evidence that moist convection — that is, convection coupled to phase changes of a condensible substance — factors into the past and present evolution of the majority of solar system atmospheres, including Venus (Kasting 1988), Mars (Wordsworth 2016; Yamashita et al. 2016), Jupite…”
BackgroundInfluential
Early Formation of a Water Ocean as a Function of Initial CO2 and H2O Contents in a Solidifying Rocky Planet
Massol, H., Davaille, A., & Sarda, P. (2023) · Journal of Geophysical Research Planets · doi:10.1029/2023je007848 · Cited by 11
Chapter 7: Assessing Habitability Beyond Earth
Styczinski, M. J., Cooper, Z. S., Glaser, D. M., Lehmer, O., Mierzejewski, V., & Tarnas, J. (2024) · Astrobiology · doi:10.1089/ast.2021.0097 · Cited by 11
“Venus is believed to have entered a ‘‘moist greenhouse,’’ where a hot atmosphere with a high volume fraction of H 2 O vapor causes this vapor to reach high enough altitudes to be photolyzed by solar EUV photons (Kasting, 1988).”
Three Direct Imaging Epochs Could Constrain the Orbit of Earth 2.0 inside the Habitable Zone
Guimond, C. M., & Cowan, N. B. (2019) · The Astronomical Journal · doi:10.3847/1538-3881/ab0f2e · Cited by 9
“The rate of this reaction increases exponentially with temperature, so the planetary effect of warming the atmosphere is to sequester more carbon and weaken the greenhouse effect (Walker et al. 1981; Kasting 1988; Kasting & Toon 1989).”
Background
Statistical Properties of Habitable Zones in Stellar Binary Systems
Simonetti, P., Vladilo, G., Silva, L., & Sozzetti, A. (2020) · The Astrophysical Journal · doi:10.3847/1538-4357/abc074 · Cited by 9
“The habitability is most generally assessed by evaluating the climatological conditions that allow liquid water to be present on the surface of rocky planets (Kasting 1988).”
Background
Tidally driven tectonic activity as a parameter in exoplanet habitability
McIntyre, S. R. N. (2022) · Astronomy and Astrophysics · doi:10.1051/0004-6361/202141112 · Cited by 9
A Snowball in Hell: The Potential Steam Atmosphere of TOI-1266c
Harman, C. E., Kopparapu, R., Stefánsson, G., Lin, A. S. J., Mahadevan, S., Hedges, C., & Batalha, N. E. (2022) · The Planetary Science Journal · doi:10.3847/psj/ac38ac · Cited by 9
“…context of the loss of water either during the magma ocean phase of a planet, immediately following accretion (e.g., Zahnle et al. 1988; Schaefer & Fegley 2010; Hamano et al. 2013; Katyal et al. 2019) or as a result of stellar brightening inducing a runaway greenhouse state (e.g., Kasting 1988).”
BackgroundMethod
The effect of atmospheric absorption of sunlight on the runaway greenhouse point
Pujol, T., & Fort, J. (2002) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2001jd001578 · Cited by 9
“The normalized radiation limit (either relative or absolute) for both cases is on the order of 1.8, substantially greater than that obtained in radiative-convective models ( 1.3) [Kasting, 1988; Pierrehumbert, 1995].”
BackgroundResultInfluential
The Fate of Oceans on First-generation Planets Orbiting White Dwarfs
Becker, J., Vanderburg, A. M., & Livesey, J. R. (2025) · The Astrophysical Journal · doi:10.3847/1538-4357/ada149 · Cited by 8
Water-cooled (sub)-Neptunes get better gas mileage
Yoshida, T., & Gaidos, E. J. (2025) · Astronomy and Astrophysics · doi:10.1051/0004-6361/202553667 · Cited by 9
Effects of rheological stratification and elasticity of lithosphere on subduction initiation
Katayama, I., Yoshida, M., & Hirauchi, K. (2022) · Frontiers in Earth Science · doi:10.3389/feart.2022.988320 · Cited by 8
“A similar situation might have occurred on Venus, where an ancient ocean is expected to have existed, if the initial water endowment was similar to that of Earth (Kasting, 1988).”
Background
Analysis of a two-layer energy balance model: Long time behavior and greenhouse effect
Cannarsa, P., Lucarini, V., Martínez, P., Urbani, C., & Vancostenoble, J. (2023) · Chaos An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science · doi:10.1063/5.0136673 · Cited by 8
Exploring Climate with Obliquity in a Variable-eccentricity Earth-like World
Way, M. J., Georgakarakos, N., & Clune, T. L. (2023) · The Astronomical Journal · doi:10.3847/1538-3881/ad0373 · Cited by 8
“As pointed out in the work of Kasting ( 1988 ) , a value of SH greater than 10 − 3 ( v v − 1 ) , later increased to 3 × 10 − 3 in Kasting et al. ( 1993 Section 5 ( i )) , is considered undesirable for long-term habitability if hydrogen escapes at the diffusion limit as an entire Earth ’ s ocean…”
Background
Reduced Water Loss due to Photochemistry on Terrestrial Planets in the Runaway Greenhouse Phase around Pre-main-sequence M Dwarfs
Kawamura, Y., Yoshida, T., Terada, N., Nakamura, Y., Koyama, S., Karyu, H., Terada, K., & Sakai, S. (2024) · The Astrophysical Journal · doi:10.3847/1538-4357/ad3e7e · Cited by 9
Self-Oxidation of the Atmospheres of Rocky Planets with Implications for the Origin of Life
Johansen, A., Camprubí, E., van Kooten, E. M. M. E., & Hoeijmakers, H. J. (2024) · Astrobiology · doi:10.1089/ast.2023.0104 · Cited by 9
“…calculations by Johansen et al. (2023b) for an Earth-mass planet with 100 bar of oxidizing atmosphere (which included the effect of water condensation on the adiabatic lapse rate); this approximate temperature is also in good agreement with previous studies (Abe and Matsui, 1988; Kasting, 1988).”
EVOLUTIONARY TRACKS OF THE CLIMATE OF EARTH-LIKE PLANETS AROUND DIFFERENT MASS STARS
Kadoya, S., & Tajika, E. (2016) · The Astrophysical Journal Letters · doi:10.3847/2041-8205/825/2/l21 · Cited by 8
“When the insolation is higher than 1.12 S0, the planet is in the hot climate mode, which corresponds to the moist greenhouse condition proposed by Kasting (1988).”
BackgroundInfluential
The Inner Solar System’s Habitability Through Time
C, A. D. D. G. (2005) · University of Arizona Press eBooks · doi:10.2458/azu_uapress_9780816540068-ch016 · Cited by 8
Evidence for Radiative‐Convective Bistability in Tropical Atmospheres
Dewey, M., & Goldblatt, C. (2018) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2018gl078903 · Cited by 8
Extraterrestrial Environment
Inglezakis, V. J. (2016) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-444-62733-9.00007-1 · Cited by 8
Seasonal Analysis of Atmospheric Changes in Hudson Bay during 1998-2018
Fazel‐Rastgar, F. (2020) · American Journal of Climate Change · doi:10.4236/ajcc.2020.92008 · Cited by 8
“The surface atmospheric downward longwave radiation explains the effects of the atmospheric greenhouse, which is related to atmospheric clouds, the water contents in the atmosphere, also the lower atmospheric temperature profiles (Kasting, 1988; Stephens & Greenwald, 1991).”
Background
A fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision Making approach for Exo-Planetary Habitability
Sánchez-Lozano, J. M., Moya, A., & Rodríguez-Mozos, J. M. (2021) · Astronomy and Computing · doi:10.1016/j.ascom.2021.100471 · Cited by 8
“…closely linked to the concept of Habitable Zone (HZ) which has been deeply studied and analyzed over years, slightly varying the climatic restrictions that define its boundaries (Hart, 1979; Kasting, 1988; Kasting et al., 1993; Selsis et al., 2007; Kaltenegger & Sasselov, 2011, Bin et al., 2018).”
Background
Water: a Unique Phenomenon and Resource
Bogárdi, J. J., & Fekete, B. M. (2021) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-60147-8_2 · Cited by 8
The Outer Edge of the Venus Zone around Main-sequence Stars
Vidaurri, M., Bastelberger, S., Wolf, E. T., Domagal-Goldman, S. D., & Kopparapu, R. (2022) · The Planetary Science Journal · doi:10.3847/psj/ac68e2 · Cited by 8
“Current speculation of how Venus entered its greenhouse state points to liquid water on the surface evaporating as our Sun entered its main sequence, and the subsequent water vapor contributing greatly to the trapping of heat, resulting in a greenhouse (Kasting et al. 1984; Kasting 1988).”
Background
Climate Policy Foundations: Science and Economics with Lessons from Monetary Regulation
Whitesell, W. C. (2011) · Cited by 8
Is Earth special?
Waltham, D. A. (2019) · Earth-Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2019.02.008 · Cited by 10
Stellar-Planetary Relations: Atmospheric Stability as a Prerequisite for Planetary Habitability
Lammer, H., Kulikov, Y. N., Penz, T., Leitner, M., Biernat, H. K., & Erkaev, N. V. (2005) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/1-4020-4466-6_15 · Cited by 8
Resolved Convection in Hydrogen-rich Atmospheres
Seeley, J. T., & Wordsworth, R. (2025) · The Planetary Science Journal · doi:10.3847/psj/ad9b1a · Cited by 7
Characterizing Exoplanet Habitability
Kopparapu, R. (2005) · University of Arizona Press eBooks · doi:10.2458/azu_uapress_9780816540068-ch017 · Cited by 8
RETRACTED ARTICLE: Life on Venus and the interplanetary transfer of biota from Earth
Joseph, R. G. (2019) · Astrophysics and Space Science · doi:10.1007/s10509-019-3678-x · Cited by 7
“Therefore, Venus may have had lakes and oceans for billions of years—making it more conducive to life (Kasting 1988; Colin and Kasting 1992; Donahue and Russell 1997; Way et al. 2016; Way and Del Genio 2019)—which then may have slowly evaporated over the following years, the remainder possibly…”
Background
Retracted
Partition Coefficients at High Pressure and Temperature
Righter, K., Danielson, L. R., DRAKE, M. J., & Domanik, K. (2013) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-08-095975-7.00210-2 · Cited by 7
Implications of Abiotic Oxygen Buildup for Earth-like Complex Life
Lingam, M. (2020) · The Astronomical Journal · doi:10.3847/1538-3881/ab737f · Cited by 6
“A number of models suggest that high XUV fluxes play a vital role in the buildup of massive O2 atmospheres by way of desiccation and photolysis (Kasting 1988; Wordsworth & Pierrehumbert 2014; Ramirez & Kaltenegger 2014; Luger & Barnes 2015; Bolmont et al. 2017; Palubski et al. 2020).”
Background
The Onset of a Globally Ice‐Covered State for a Land Planet
Kodama, T., Genda, H., Leconte, J., & Abe‐Ouchi, A. (2021) · Journal of Geophysical Research Planets · doi:10.1029/2021je006975 · Cited by 9
“When such a planet receives an insolation from the central star that exceeds this limit, a radiative imbalance occurs, causing higher surface temperatures (e.g., Komabayashi, 1967; Kasting, 1988; Abe & Matsui, 1988).”
Background
Planetary geodynamics and age constraints on circumstellar habitable zones around main sequence stars
Mello, F. D. S., & Friaça, A. C. S. (2023) · International Journal of Astrobiology · doi:10.1017/s1473550423000083 · Cited by 8
WATER FORMATION IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE OF THE EARLY EARTH
Fleury, B., Carrasco, N., Marcq, E., Vettier, L., & Määttänen, A. (2015) · The Astrophysical Journal Letters · doi:10.1088/2041-8205/807/2/l29 · Cited by 7
“In a CO2-rich atmosphere the average temperature at the stratopause level is expected to be close to the planetary skin temperature, around 200 K (Kasting 1988), or even below.”
Background
Interaction between local magma ocean evolution and mantle dynamics on Mars
Reese, C. C., Solomatov, V. S., & Orth, C. P. (2007) · Geological Society of America eBooks · doi:10.1130/2007.2430(42 · Cited by 7
A Comparative Study of the Influence of the Active Young Sun on the Early Atmospheres of Earth, Venus, and Mars
Kulikov, Y. N., Lammer, H., Lichtenegger, H., Penz, T., Breuer, D., Spohn, T., Lundin, R., & Biernat, H. K. (2007) · Space sciences series of ISSI · doi:10.1007/978-0-387-74288-5_8 · Cited by 7

Authors: Kasting, J. F.
Affiliations: Ames Research Center (US)
Corresponding author: Kasting, James F.
ORCID: Kasting, James F.
Venue: Icarus
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Published: 1988-06
Volume: 74
Issue: 3
Pages: 472-494
ISSN: 0019-1035 (ISSN-L)
DOI: 10.1016/0019-1035(88)90116-9
OpenAlex: W1968152463
Cited by: 709
References: 47
Citations by year: 2026: 21 · 2025: 30 · 2024: 33 · 2023: 39 · 2022: 31 · 2021: 35 · 2020: 37 · 2019: 30 · 2018: 37 · 2017: 32 · 2016: 36 · 2015: 33 · 2014: 30 · 2013: 40 · 2012: 19
FWCI: 12.62
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Licence: www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/ (tdm)
Locations: Icarus (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Space and Planetary Science › Astro and Planetary Science
Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Space and Planetary Science › Planetary Science and Exploration
Physical Sciences › Physics and Astronomy › Astronomy and Astrophysics › Stellar, planetary, and galactic studies
Keywords: runaway greenhouse, Venus, Earth, water photodissociation, hydrogen escape, water vapor absorption, accretion, steam atmosphere, carbon dioxide, one-dimensional climate model
MeSH terms: Atmosphere, Carbon Dioxide, Climate, Light, Models, Theoretical, Scattering, Radiation, Sunlight, Temperature, Water, Solar System, Greenhouse Effect, Earth, Planet, Venus

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Runaway and moist greenhouse atmospheres and the evolution of Earth and Venus

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