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Runaway and moist greenhouse atmospheres and the evolution of Earth and Venus
Abstract
A one-dimensional climate model is used to study the response of an Earth-like atmosphere to large increases in solar flux. For fully saturated, cloud-free conditions, the critical solar flux at which a runaway greenhouse occurs, that is, the oceans evaporate entirely, is found to be 1.4 times the present flux at Earth's orbit (S0). This value is close to the flux expected at Venus' orbit early in solar system history. Is is nearly independent of the amount of CO2 present in the atmosphere, but is sensitive to the H2O absorption coefficient in the 8- to 12-micrometers window region. Clouds should tend to depress the surface temperature on a warm, moist planet; thus, Venus may originally have had oceans if its initial water endowment was close to that of Earth. It lost them early in its history, however, because of rapid photodissociation of water vapor followed by escape of hydrogen to space. The critical solar flux above which water is rapidly lost could be as low as 1.1S0. The surface temperature of a runaway greenhouse atmosphere containing a full ocean's worth of water would have been in excess of 1500 degrees K--above the solidus for silicate rocks. The presence of such a steam atmosphere during accretion may have significantly influenced the early thermal evolution of both Earth and Venus.
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“A planet on the inner edge of the habitable zone (see Chapter 5) could conceivably have a large abiotic buildup of oxygen through a runaway greenhouse effect while the oceans evaporate; after photodissociation of water in the atmosphere, hydrogen could escape, leaving oxygen behind (Kasting, 1988).”
From The Astrobiology Primer v2.0 (2016) · cites this paper as Kasting, 1988
Citations
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Venus as an Analog for Hot Earths
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Lammer, H., Khodachenko, M. L., Lichtenegger, H., & Kulikov, Y. N. (2007) · doi:10.1002/9783527621361.ch6 · Cited by 5
Search for Extra-Terrestrial planets: The DARWIN mission - Target Stars and Array ArchitecturesPreprint
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“Two major processes have changed the primitive atmosphere, the reduction of CO2 and the increase of O2 (Kasting, 1988).”
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Metamorphism of Venus as driver of crustal thickness and recycling
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The Surface and Atmosphere of Venus: Evolution and Present State
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Lichtenberg, T., Schaefer, L., Krissansen‐Totton, J., Miguel, Y., Sergeev, D. E., Baumeister, P., Cmiel, J., Janssen, L. J., Nguyen, T. G., Miyazaki, Y., et al. (2026) · The Planetary Science Journal · doi:10.3847/psj/ae593b · Cited by 9
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InfluentialPossibility for albedo estimation of exomoons: Why should we care about M dwarfs?
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“Note the cut in the X-axis between 600 and 1400 K. Figure adapted from Kasting (1988)”
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“In relevant models, water evaporated from the initial oceans due to a more efficient greenhouse (Ingersoll, 1969; Kasting, 1988) and then dissociated in the high atmosphere due to strong solar EUV irradiation (Kasting and Pollack, 1983).”
Self-citationAstrobiological Potential of Planetary Bodies Within the Solar System
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Lunar Exploration as a Probe of Ancient Venus
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“The remaining oxygen may have reacted with magma oceans (Kasting 1988), or escaped non-thermally (Shizgal & Arkos 1996); solar winds can remove the dissociated ions, as observed by ESA’s Venus Express (Delva et al. 2008; Persson et al. 2018).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialComposition and Internal Dynamics of Super‐Earths
Valencia, D. (2013) · doi:10.1002/9781118529492.ch9 · Cited by 3
Effects of the non-gray absorption in a simple radiative equilibrium model
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Makarieva, A. M., Gorshkov, V. G., & Pujol, T. (2003) · doi:10.5194/acpd-3-6701-2003 · Cited by 3
“The main result of this paper is that, in contrast to the results obtained in several previous studies (Komabayasi, 1967; Ingersoll, 1969; Kasting, 1988; Goody and Yung, 1989; Nakajima et al., 1992; Renn ´ o, 1997; Pujol and North, 2002), on a planet with an infinite liquid hydrosphere the outgoing flux of thermal radia…”
InfluentialBoukrouche, R., Caballero, R., & Janson, M. (2024) · The Astrophysical Journal · doi:10.3847/1538-4357/ad8f30 · Cited by 2
The Photochemical Plausibility of Warm Exo-Titans Orbiting M Dwarf Stars
Ranjan, S., Wogan, N. F., Glidden, A., Wang, J., Stevenson, K. B., Lewis, N. K., Koskinen, T., Seager, S., Wakeford, H. R., & van der Marel, R. P. (2025) · The Astrophysical Journal Letters · doi:10.3847/2041-8213/ae1026 · Cited by 3
“While a common approach ( e.g., J. F. Kasting 1988; A. Aguichine et al. 2021; N. F. Wogan et al. 2023 ) , this approximation may be inaccurate for CH 4 -dominated atmo-spheres orbiting M dwarf stars, for which antigreenhouse effects are anticipated ( R. M. Ramirez & L. Kaltenegger 2018; M. Turbet…”
Role of gas and aerosol components of the atmosphere in the model of greenhouse explosion
Захаров, В. И., Gribanov, K. G., & Beresnev, S. A. (2009) · Atmospheric and Oceanic Optics · doi:10.1134/s1024856009020055 · Cited by 2
“Nevertheless, it is known that the grey atmosphere model at an approximation of the radiant equilibrium describes adequately all qualitative regularities in greenhouse effects in the atmosphere of planets [9, 10 , 18] and can be a simple and effective method for the prediction and qualitative study of new greenhouse e…”
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“This warming would have triggered the onset of a moist (Kasting, 1988) and possibly a runaway greenhouse state by which much of the surface water was lost via photodissociation, accompanied by”
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On the Hydrosphere Stability of TESS Targets: Applications to 700 d, 256 b, and 203 b
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“In this case, the surface temperature exceeds 647K, fully evaporating surface oceans and leading to a water vapor– dominated upper atmosphere (e.g., Kasting 1988).”
BackgroundImpact of vegetation albedo on the habitability of Earth-like exoplanets
Bisesi, E., Murante, G., Provenzale, A., Biasiotti, L., von Hardenberg, J., Ivanovski, S. L., MARIS, M., Monai, S., Silva, L., Simonetti, P., et al. (2024) · Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society · doi:10.1093/mnras/stae2016 · Cited by 2
The Role of Tectonic Luck in Long-term Habitability of Abiotic Earth-like Planets
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“…also can be overwhelmed by external perturbations, such as increasing ISR, that may lead to a runaway greenhouse effect where surface oceans evaporate completely, driving all life extinct ( C. Goldblatt & A. J. Watson 2012 ) , similar to what may have happened on Venus ( J. F. Kasting 1988 ) .”
Regarding greenhouse explosion
Zakharov, V. I. (2008) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-540-78209-4_6 · Cited by 2
Pujol, T. (2004) · Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society · doi:10.1256/qj.02.144 · Cited by 2
“Note that here we analyse profiles with surface temperatures lower than 350 K, since the assumption of water vapour as an ideal gas breaks down at high surface pressures (reached at high surface temperatures; see e.g. Kasting (1988)).”
BackgroundEffects of Atmospheric Absorption of Incoming Radiation on the Radiation Limit of the Troposphere
Kurokawa, H., & Nakamoto, T. (2011) · Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences · doi:10.1175/jas-d-11-0108.1 · Cited by 2
“The existence of radiation limits was subsequently confirmed in detailed numerical studies (Abe and Matsui 1988; Kasting 1988; Rennó et al. 1994a,b; Rennó 1997; Ishiwatari et al. 2002).”
BackgroundFormation of Earth-like habitable planets
Brownlee, D. E., & Kress, M. E. (2007) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511812958.005 · Cited by 2
The Geology and Habitability of Terrestrial Planets: Fundamental Requirements for Life
Southam, G., Rothschild, L. J., & Westall, F. (2007) · Space sciences series of ISSI · doi:10.1007/978-0-387-74288-5_2 · Cited by 4
Extremophiles—Organisms that survive and thrive in extreme environmental conditions
Joseph, A. (2023) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-323-95717-5.00009-8 · Cited by 2
Probing the Atmosphere of Venus using Infrared Spectroscopy
Bailey, J. (2006) · Cited by 2
Habitable planets around the Sun and other stars
Kasting, J. F. (2007) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511536533.009 · Cited by 2
Self-citationFormation of the Terrestrial Planets
Kaula, W. M. (1995) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-94-017-1092-3_1 · Cited by 2
Life on Mars: Past, Present, and Future
Beech, M., & Comte, M. (2021) · Wiley eBooks · doi:10.1002/9781119761990.ch9 · Cited by 2
The Habitability of Venus and a Comparison to Early EarthPreprint
Westall, F., Höning, D., Avice, G., Gentry, D. M., Gerya, T., Gillmann, C., Izenberg, N. R., Way, M. J., & Wilson, C. (2022) · doi:10.1002/essoar.10512790.1 · Cited by 2
Climate instabilities under strong solar forcing
Popp, M. (2013) · Max Planck Digital Library · doi:10.17617/2.2049534 · Cited by 2
“Other studies made use of models with a constant cloud layer as well or investigated the influence of clouds tentatively for single cloud layers at different temperature and pressure levels (e.g., Kasting (1988)).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialTurbet, M. (2018) · theses.fr (ABES) · doi:10.70675/6ee472e1z447cz4553zad3ezb856253af054 · Cited by 2
Habitable Zones of the Universe
(2000) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/0-387-21848-3_2 · Cited by 1
Joseph, A. (2023) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-323-95717-5.00014-1 · Cited by 1
Detectability of biosignatures in warm, water-rich atmospheres
Taysum, B. M., van Zelst, I., Grenfell, J. L., Schreier, F., Cabrera, J., & Rauer, H. (2024) · Astronomy and Astrophysics · doi:10.1051/0004-6361/202450549 · Cited by 3
Yoshida, T., Arima, K., Kuroda, T., Terada, N., & Kuramoto, K. (2025) · The Astrophysical Journal · doi:10.3847/1538-4357/adc8a5 · Cited by 2
“These atmospheres can drastically lower the outgoing planetary radiation fl ux by several orders of magnitude compared to blackbody radiation, due to the infrared-absorbing properties of H 2 O ( e.g., J. F. Kasting 1988; S. Nakajima et al. 1992; C. Goldblatt et al. 2013 ) .”
InfluentialImpacts of Atmospheric Carbon Species and Stellar Type on Climates of Terrestrial Planets
Landry, J., Kurokawa, H., Taki, T., Fujii, Y., Aoki, K., & Genda, H. (2025) · The Planetary Science Journal · doi:10.3847/psj/adf7a1 · Cited by 1
“The moist adiabatic lapse rate takes the release of the latent heat from condensation of saturated water vapor into account (Ingersoll 1969; Kasting et al. 1984; Kasting 1988; Catling & Kasting 2017).”
Modelling the Milky Way’s exoplanet population based on cosmological galaxy simulations
Padois, C., del Ser, D., Anders, F., Amarante, J. A. S., Perottoni, H. D., Hajnik, T., Souto, D., Feliciano-Souza, I. N., Kawata, D., & Martioli, E. (2025) · Astronomy and Astrophysics · doi:10.1051/0004-6361/202557051 · Cited by 1
Boley, K. M., Panero, W. R., Miozzi, F., Capirala, A., & Teske, J. K. (2025) · The Astrophysical Journal · doi:10.3847/1538-4357/ae182b · Cited by 1
“Evaporation driven by high stellar flux can lead to complete surface water loss, leading to an inhospitable environment ( J. F. Kasting 1988; C. Goldblatt et al. 2013 ) .”
Metadata
- Authors
- Kasting, J. F.
- Affiliations
- Ames Research Center (US)
- Corresponding author
- Kasting, James F.
- ORCID
- Kasting, James F.
- Venue
- Icarus
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 1988-06
- Volume
- 74
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 472-494
- ISSN
- 0019-1035 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W1968152463
- Cited by
- 709
- References
- 47
- Citations by year
- 2026: 21 · 2025: 30 · 2024: 33 · 2023: 39 · 2022: 31 · 2021: 35 · 2020: 37 · 2019: 30 · 2018: 37 · 2017: 32 · 2016: 36 · 2015: 33 · 2014: 30 · 2013: 40 · 2012: 19
- FWCI
- 12.62
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Icarus (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Space and Planetary Science › Astro and Planetary Science
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Space and Planetary Science › Planetary Science and Exploration
- Physical Sciences › Physics and Astronomy › Astronomy and Astrophysics › Stellar, planetary, and galactic studies
- Keywords
- runaway greenhouse, Venus, Earth, water photodissociation, hydrogen escape, water vapor absorption, accretion, steam atmosphere, carbon dioxide, one-dimensional climate model
- MeSH terms
- Atmosphere, Carbon Dioxide, Climate, Light, Models, Theoretical, Scattering, Radiation, Sunlight, Temperature, Water, Solar System, Greenhouse Effect, Earth, Planet, Venus
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