The DOI matches its Crossref record; 1 of the 1 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Analysts' forecasts as earnings expectations
Open accessAbstract
Abstract I examine three composite analyst forecast of earnings per share as proxies for expected earnings. The most current forecast weakly dominates the mean and median forecasts in accuracy. This is evidence that forecast dates are more relevant for determining accuracy than individual error. Consistent with previous research, I find analysts more accurate than time-series models. However prior knowledge of forecast errors from a quarterly autoregressive model predicts excess stock returns better than prior knowledge of analysts' errors. This is inconsistent with previous research, and is anomalous given analysts' greater accuracy.
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Bates, J. M., & Granger, C. W. J. (1969) · Journal of the Operational Research Society · doi:10.1057/jors.1969.103 · Cited by 3,201
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“Clinical versus Actuarial Judgment.”
Dawes, R. M., Faust, D., & Meehl, P. E. (1989) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.2648573 · Cited by 2,298
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TESTING A CAUSAL MODEL OF CORPORATE RISK TAKING AND PERFORMANCE.
Bromiley, P. (1991) · Academy of Management Journal · doi:10.2307/256301 · Cited by 1,453
Metadata
- Authors
- O'brien, P. C.
- Venue
- Journal of Accounting and Economics
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 1988-01
- Volume
- 10
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 53-83
- ISSN
- 0165-4101 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2014659932
- Cited by
- 984
- References
- 1
- FWCI
- 26.30
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
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