The DOI matches its Crossref record; 5 of the 5 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Vaccine Efficacy Needed for a COVID-19 Coronavirus Vaccine to Prevent or Stop an Epidemic as the Sole Intervention
Open accessAbstract
Introduction Given the continuing COVID-19 pandemic and much of the U.S. implementing social distancing owing to the lack of alternatives, there has been a push to develop a vaccine to eliminate the need for social distancing. Methods In 2020, the team developed a computational model of the U.S. simulating the spread of COVID-19 coronavirus and vaccination. Results Simulation experiments revealed that to prevent an epidemic (reduce the peak by >99%), the vaccine efficacy has to be at least 60% when vaccination coverage is 100% (reproduction number=2.5–3.5). This vaccine efficacy threshold rises to 70% when coverage drops to 75% and up to 80% when coverage drops to 60% when reproduction number is 2.5, rising to 80% when coverage drops to 75% when the reproduction number is 3.5. To extinguish an ongoing epidemic, the vaccine efficacy has to be at least 60% when coverage is 100% and at least 80% when coverage drops to 75% to reduce the peak by 85%–86%, 61%–62%, and 32% when vaccination occurs after 5%, 15%, and 30% of the population, respectively, have already been exposed to COVID-19 coronavirus. A vaccine with an efficacy between 60% and 80% could still obviate the need for other measures under certain circumstances such as much higher, and in some cases, potentially unachievable, vaccination coverages. Conclusions This study found that the vaccine has to have an efficacy of at least 70% to prevent an epidemic and of at least 80% to largely extinguish an epidemic without any other measures (e.g., social distancing).
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Cites
Clinical characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019 in China
Guan, W.-J., Ni, Z.-Y., Hu, Y., Liang, W.-H., Ou, C.-Q., He, J.-X., Liu, L., Shan, H., Lei, C.-L., Hui, D. S. C., et al. (2020) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa2002032 · Cited by 30,246
Early transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China, of novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia
Li, Q., Guan, X., Wu, P., Wang, X., Zhou, L., Tong, Y., Ren, R., Leung, K. S. M., Lau, E. H. Y., Wong, J. Y., et al. (2020) · New England Journal of Medicine · doi:10.1056/nejmoa2001316 · Cited by 16,575
Virological assessment of hospitalized patients with COVID-2019
Wölfel, R., Corman, V. M., Guggemos, W., Seilmaier, M., Zange, S., Müller, M. A., Niemeyer, D., Jones, T. C., Vollmar, P., Rothe, C., et al. (2020) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2196-x · Cited by 6,661
Garg, S., Kim, L., Whitaker, M., O’Halloran, A., Cummings, C., Holstein, R., Prill, M., Chai, S. J., Kirley, P. D., Alden, N. B., et al. (2020) · MMWR. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report · doi:10.15585/mmwr.mm6915e3 · Cited by 2,335
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Cited by
Voysey, M., Clemens, S. A. C., Madhi, S. A., Weckx, L. Y., Folegatti, P. M., Aley, P. K., Angus, B., Baillie, V. L., Barnabas, S. L., Bhorat, Q. E., et al. (2021) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(20)32661-1 · Cited by 4,616
Robinson, E., Jones, A., Lesser, I., & Daly, M. (2021) · Vaccine · doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.02.005 · Cited by 518
Edwards, B., Biddle, N., Gray, M., & Sollis, K. (2021) · PLOS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0248892 · Cited by 339
Lancet COVID-19 Commission Statement on the occasion of the 75th session of the UN General Assembly
Sachs, J. D., Abdool Karim, S., Aknin, L., Allen, J., Brosbøl, K., Cuevas Barron, G., Daszak, P., Espinosa, M. F., Gaspar, V., Gaviria, A., et al. (2020) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(20)31927-9 · Cited by 171
Self-citationBeladiya, J., Kumar, A., Vasava, Y., Parmar, K., Patel, D., Patel, S., Dholakia, S., Sheth, D., Boddu, S. H. S., & Patel, C. (2024) · Reviews in Medical Virology · doi:10.1002/rmv.2507 · Cited by 96
Metadata
- Authors
- Bartsch, S. M., O'Shea, K. J., Ferguson, M. C., Bottazzi, M. E., Wedlock, P. T., Strych, U., McKinnell, J. A., Siegmund, S. S., Cox, S. N., Hotez, P. J., & Lee, B. Y.
- Venue
- American Journal of Preventive Medicine
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2020-10
- Volume
- 59
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 493-503
- ISSN
- 0749-3797 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3043540151
- Cited by
- 324
- References
- 5
- FWCI
- 10.80
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
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- The paper
- Bartsch, S. M., O'Shea, K. J., Ferguson, M. C., Bottazzi, M. E., Wedlock, P. T., Strych, U., McKinnell, J. A., Siegmund, S. S., Cox, S. N., Hotez, P. J., & Lee, B. Y. (2020). Vaccine Efficacy Needed for a COVID-19 Coronavirus Vaccine to Prevent or Stop an Epidemic as the Sole Intervention. American Journal of Preventive Medicine. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amepre.2020.06.011
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
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