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Slow and steady wins the race? Future climate and land use change leaves the imperiled Blanding's turtle (Emydoidea blandingii) behind

Hamilton, Christopher M., Bateman, Brooke L., Gorzo, Jessica M., Reid, Brendan, Thogmartin, Wayne E., Peery, M. Zachariah, Heglund, Patricia J., Radeloff, Volker C., Pidgeon, Anna M.·2018·Biological Conservation
DOI 10.1016/j.biocon.2018.03.026
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Abstract

Climate change is accompanied by shifts in species distributions, as portions of current ranges become less suitable. Maintaining or improving landscape connectivity to facilitate species movements is a primary approach to mitigate the effects of climate change on biodiversity. However, it is not clear how ongoing changes in land use and climate may affect the existing connectivity of landscapes. We evaluated shifts in habitat suitability and connectivity for the imperiled Blanding's turtle (Emydoidea blandingii) in Wisconsin using species distribution modeling in combination with different future scenarios of both land use change and climate change for the 2050s. We found that climate change had significant effects on both habitat suitability and connectivity, however, there was little difference in the magnitude of effects among different economic scenarios. Under both our low- and high-CO₂ emissions scenarios, suitable habitat for the Blanding's turtle shifted northward. In the high-emissions scenario, almost no suitable habitat remained for Blanding's turtle in Wisconsin by the 2050s and there was up to a 100,000-fold increase in landscape resistance to turtle movement, suggesting the landscape essentially becomes impassable. Habitat loss and landscape resistance were exponentially greater in southern versus northern Wisconsin, indicating a strong trailing edge effect. Thus, populations at the southern edge of the range are likely to “fall behind” shifts in suitable habit…

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Authors
Hamilton, C. M., Bateman, B. L., Gorzo, J. M., Reid, B., Thogmartin, W. E., Peery, M. Z., Heglund, P. J., Radeloff, V. C., & Pidgeon, A. M.
ORCID
Bateman, Brooke L.
Venue
Biological Conservation
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Published
2018-06
Volume
222
Pages
75-85
ISSN
0006-3207
DOI
10.1016/j.biocon.2018.03.026
Cited by
24
References
1
Language
en
Licence
Funders
  • U.S. Geological Survey (G10AC00352)
  • U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (F12AP00423)

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CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Slow and steady wins the race? Future climate and land use change leaves the imperiled Blanding's turtle (Emydoidea blandingii) behind. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1016/j.biocon.2018.03.026
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Hamilton, C. M., Bateman, B. L., Gorzo, J. M., Reid, B., Thogmartin, W. E., Peery, M. Z., Heglund, P. J., Radeloff, V. C., & Pidgeon, A. M. (2018). Slow and steady wins the race? Future climate and land use change leaves the imperiled Blanding's turtle (Emydoidea blandingii) behind. Biological Conservation. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2018.03.026