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Current and future burden of breast cancer: Global statistics for 2020 and 2040
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BACKGROUND: Breast cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer worldwide, and its burden has been rising over the past decades. In this article, we examine and describe the global burden of breast cancer in 2020 and predictions for the year 2040. METHODS: Estimates of new female breast cancer cases and deaths in 2020 were abstracted from the GLOBOCAN database. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were calculated per 100,000 females by country, world region, and level of human development. Predicted cases and deaths were computed based on global demographic projections for the year 2040. RESULTS: Over 2.3 million new cases and 685,000 deaths from breast cancer occurred in 2020. Large geographic variation across countries and world regions exists, with incidence rates ranging from <40 per 100,000 females in some Asian and African countries, to over 80 per 100,000 in Australia/New Zealand, Northern America, and parts of Europe. Smaller geographical variation was observed for mortality; however, transitioning countries continue to carry a disproportionate share of breast cancer deaths relative to transitioned countries. By 2040, the burden from breast cancer is predicted to increase to over 3 million new cases and 1 million deaths every year because of population growth and ageing alone. CONCLUSION: Breast cancer is the most common cancer worldwide and continues to have a large impact on the global number of cancer deaths. Global efforts are needed to counteract its growing burden, especially in transitioning countries where incidence is rising rapidly, and mortality rates remain high.
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“Breast cancer has become the most commonly diagnosed cancer worldwide, surpassing lung cancer [1, 2].”
From Nanosensitizer-assisted sonodynamic therapy for breast cancer (2025) · cites this paper as [2]
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“In terms of primary prevention, a reduction in excess body weight and alcohol consumption and increasing physical activity and breastfeeding may have an impact in reducing breast cancer incidence.58”
From Global cancer statistics 2022: GLOBOCAN estimates of incidence and mortality worldwide for 36 cancers in 185 countries. (2024) · cites this paper as [58]
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Metadata
- Authors
- Arnold, M., Morgan, E., Rumgay, H., Mafra, A., Singh, D., Laversanne, M., Vignat, J., Gralow, J. R., Cardoso, F., Siesling, S., & Soerjomataram, I.
- Affiliations
- Centre international de recherche sur le cancer (FR)
- American Society of Clinical Oncology (US)
- Netherlands Comprehensive Cancer Organisation (NL)
- Corresponding author
- Morgan, Eileen
- ORCID
- Venue
- The Breast
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2022-12
- Volume
- 66
- Pages
- 15-23
- ISSN
- 0960-9776 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC9465273
- OpenAlex
- W4294189863
- Cited by
- 3,411
- References
- 43
- Citations by year
- 2026: 694 · 2025: 1176 · 2024: 997 · 2023: 516 · 2022: 23
- FWCI
- 284.30
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- The Breast (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- University of Twente Research Information (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- University of Twente Research Information (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Funders
- Susan G. Komen (CCR19608129)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › Global Cancer Incidence and Screening
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › Cancer Risks and Factors
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Women's cancer prevention and management
- Keywords
- breast cancer, global burden of disease, incidence, mortality, age-standardized rates, population projections, 2040 projections, regional variation, human development, cancer epidemiology
- MeSH terms
- Australia, Breast Neoplasms, Europe, Female, Forecasting, Humans, Incidence
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