Does delay discounting play an etiological role in smoking or is it a consequence of smoking?
Open accessAbstract
Although higher delay discounting rates have been linked to cigarette smoking, little is known about the stability of delay discounting, whether delay discounting promotes smoking acquisition, whether smoking contributes to impulsive choices, or if different relationships exist in distinct subgroups. This study sought to fill these gaps within a prospective longitudinal cohort study (N=947) spanning mid-adolescence to young adulthood (age 15-21 years old). Smoking and delay discounting were measured across time. Covariates included peer and household smoking, academic performance, depression, novelty seeking, inattention and hyperactivity/impulsivity symptoms, and alcohol and marijuana use. The associated processes latent growth curve modeling (LGCM) with paths from the delay discounting level factor (baseline measure) and the trend factor (slope) to the smoking trend factor (slope) fit the data well, chi(2)((19,n=947)) =15.37, p=.70, CFI=1.00, RMSEA=0, WRMR=.36. The results revealed that delay discounting did not change significantly across time. Baseline delay discounting had a significant positive effect on smoking trend (beta=.08, z=2.16, p=.03). A standard deviation (SD=1.41) increase in baseline delay discounting resulted in an 11% increase (OR=1.11, 95% CI=1.03, 1.23) in the odds of smoking uptake. The alternative path LCGM revealed that smoking did not significantly impact delay discounting (p's>.05). Growth mixture modeling identified three smoking trajectories: nons…
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Impatience is linked to greater substance use and risk-taking in adolescents.
“research indicates that impatience is related to increased adolescent substance use and risk-taking (10 -13).”
From Adolescent impatience decreases with increased frontostriatal connectivity (2015) · cites this paper as [12]
DD is consistently linked with a variety of problematic and unhealthy behaviors.
“Thus, DD is consistently linked with a variety of problematic and unhealthy behaviors”
From Behavioral trainings and manipulations to reduce delay discounting: A systematic review (2019) · cites this paper as Audrain-McGovern et al., 2009
There is initial evidence from developmental studies that increased discounting rates contribute to the development and maintenance of problematic and unhealthy behaviors.
“there is initial evidence from developmental studies that increased discounting rates contribute to the development and maintenance of these behaviors”
From Behavioral trainings and manipulations to reduce delay discounting: A systematic review (2019) · cites this paper as Audrain-McGovern et al., 2009
In a prospective longitudinal cohort study spanning midadolescence to young adulthood (ages 15-21 years old), heightened baseline DD rates were a significant predictor of smoking initiation over time (11% increase in the odds of smoking uptake).
“Audrain-McGovern et al. (2009), for example, showed with a prospective longitudinal cohort study spanning midadolescence to young adulthood (ages 15–21 years old) that heightened baseline DD rates were a significant predictor of smoking initiation over time (11% increase in the odds of smoking uptake).”
From Behavioral trainings and manipulations to reduce delay discounting: A systematic review (2019) · cites this paper as Audrain-McGovern et al., 2009
Longitudinal evidence indicates that steep delay discounting and high impulsive choice predict later drug taking.
“Longitudinal data suggest steep delay discounting and high levels of impulsive choice are predictive of subsequent drug taking”
From Changing Delay Discounting and Impulsive Choice: Implications for Addictions, Prevention, and Human Health (2019) · cites this paper as Audrain-McGovern et al., 2009
Longitudinal studies indicate that steep delay discounting precedes and predicts human drug use, lower rates of drug abstinence, and greater relapse during treatment.
“Longitudinal studies suggest that steep delay discounting precedes and predicts human drug use”
From Changing Delay Discounting and Impulsive Choice: Implications for Addictions, Prevention, and Human Health (2019) · cites this paper as Audrain-McGovern et al., 2009
Baseline delay discounting increases the odds of smoking uptake, but smoking does not significantly impact delay discounting.
“A longitudinal study tested whether delay discounting is a cause or consequence of smoking and found that baseline delay discounting increased the odds of smoking uptake, but smoking did not significantly impact delay discounting.159”
From Early life adversity and health-risk behaviors: Proposed psychological and neural mechanisms (2018) · cites this paper as [159]
Experimentally measured discounting rates using hypothetical tasks show good temporal stability, suggesting they reflect a relatively stable individual difference.
“Experimentally measured discounting rates using hypothetical tasks show good temporal stability (Audrain-McGovern et al, 2009; Beck and Triplett, 2009; Kirby, 2009; Ohmura et al, 2006), similar to personality traits (Costa and McCrae, 1992), suggesting that they reflect a relatively stable individual difference.”
From DAT1 and COMT effects on delay discounting and trait impulsivity in male adolescents with attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder and healthy controls (2010) · cites this paper as Audrain-McGovern et al, 2009
Prospective studies suggest that high discounting rates may indicate vulnerability for the development of substance abuse/dependence across species.
“prospective studies suggest that high discounting rates may indicate vulnerability for the development of such problems across species”
From DAT1 and COMT effects on delay discounting and trait impulsivity in male adolescents with attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder and healthy controls (2010) · cites this paper as Audrain-McGovern et al, 2009
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References 74 · Cited by 403
- Authors
- Audrain-McGovern, J., Rodriguez, D., Epstein, L. H., Cuevas, J., Rodgers, K., & Wileyto, E. P.
- Affiliations
- University of Pennsylvania (US)
- University at Buffalo, State University of New York (US)
- Corresponding author
- Audrain-McGovern, Janet
- Venue
- Drug and Alcohol Dependence
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2009-08
- Volume
- 103
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 99-106
- ISSN
- 0376-8716 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC2743449
- OpenAlex
- W2049171896
- Cited by
- 403
- References
- 74
- Citations by year
- 2026: 9 · 2025: 14 · 2024: 16 · 2023: 17 · 2022: 19 · 2021: 29 · 2020: 64 · 2019: 26 · 2018: 29 · 2017: 15 · 2016: 27 · 2015: 27 · 2014: 35 · 2013: 25 · 2012: 23
- FWCI
- 11.14
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Drug and Alcohol Dependence (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Funders
- U.S. Public Health Service (P5084718)
- National Cancer Institute (P50CA084718, R01CA109250)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Physiology › Smoking Behavior and Cessation
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Substance Abuse Treatment and Outcomes
- Keywords
- delay discounting, cigarette smoking, smoking onset, impulsivity, smoking trajectories, smoking prevention, adolescents and young adults, impulsive choice, novelty seeking, hyperactivity/impulsivity
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Alcohol Drinking, Depression, Exploratory Behavior, Female, Humans, Impulsive Behavior, Male, Marijuana Smoking, Models, Psychological, Reward, Smoking, Time Factors, Cohort Studies, Young Adult
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