The cost of crime to society: New crime-specific estimates for policy and program evaluation
Open accessAbstract
Estimating the cost to society of individual crimes is essential to the economic evaluation of many social programs, such as substance abuse treatment and community policing. A review of the crime-costing literature reveals multiple sources, including published articles and government reports, which collectively represent the alternative approaches for estimating the economic losses associated with criminal activity. Many of these sources are based upon data that are more than 10 years old, indicating a need for updated figures. This study presents a comprehensive methodology for calculating the cost to society of various criminal acts. Tangible and intangible losses are estimated using the most current data available. The selected approach, which incorporates both the cost-of-illness and the jury compensation methods, yields cost estimates for more than a dozen major crime categories, including several categories not found in previous studies. Updated crime cost estimates can help government agencies and other organizations execute more prudent policy evaluations, particularly benefit-cost analyses of substance abuse treatment or other interventions that reduce crime.
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Aggravated assault costs $120,166 per act.
“Violent offenses including murder, rape/sexual assault, and aggravated assault generated the highest cost-per-offense ($10.09 million, $270,352, and $120,166 per act, respectively).”
From Monetary conversion factors for economic evaluations of substance use disorders (2017) · cites this paper as McCollister, French, & Fang, 2010
The Results (section 5; page unavailable) give a total societal cost of $107,020 per aggravated assault, not $120,166. The same section reports $115,365 under an alternative sensitivity analysis, also below the claimed figure. (LLM, conf=0.90)
Checked by a reasoning model — may be wrong.
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredRape or sexual assault costs $270,352 per act.
“Violent offenses including murder, rape/sexual assault, and aggravated assault generated the highest cost-per-offense ($10.09 million, $270,352, and $120,166 per act, respectively).”
From Monetary conversion factors for economic evaluations of substance use disorders (2017) · cites this paper as McCollister, French, & Fang, 2010
Section 5 (Results; page not provided) gives the paper’s per-offense cost for rape/sexual assault as $240,776, not $270,352. Its third sensitivity analysis gives $244,126, also not the claimed amount. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Checked by a reasoning model — may be wrong.
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredMurder has the highest cost per offense at $10.09 million.
“Violent offenses including murder, rape/sexual assault, and aggravated assault generated the highest cost-per-offense ($10.09 million, $270,352, and $120,166 per act, respectively).”
From Monetary conversion factors for economic evaluations of substance use disorders (2017) · cites this paper as McCollister, French, & Fang, 2010
The Results section (Table 5 discussion; page unavailable) ranks murder as the highest-cost offense, supporting that part of the claim. But the paper estimates about $8.98 million per murder in 2008 dollars, not $10.09 million; its figures for rape/sexual assault and aggravated assault also differ from those in the citing sentence. (LLM, conf=0.93)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredRobbery, arson, and motor vehicle theft have cost-per-offense between $12,095 and $47,507 per act.
“Robbery, arson, and motor vehicle theft have cost-per-offense of between $12,095 and $47,507 per act.”
From Monetary conversion factors for economic evaluations of substance use disorders (2017) · cites this paper as McCollister, French, & Fang, 2010
The Results section reports $42,310 per robbery and $21,103 per arson, both within the claimed range. But the Discussion reports $10,772 per motor vehicle theft, below the claimed $12,095 lower bound; the paper does not give the claimed endpoints for these three offenses. (LLM, conf=0.90)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe remaining crimes including stolen property, household burglary, embezzlement, forgery and counterfeiting, fraud, vandalism, and larceny/theft range between $3,966 and $8,953 per act.
“The remaining crimes including stolen property, household burglary, embezzlement, forgery and counterfeiting, fraud, vandalism, and larceny/theft ranged between $3,966 and $8,953 per act.”
From Monetary conversion factors for economic evaluations of substance use disorders (2017) · cites this paper as McCollister, French, & Fang, 2010
The Results section reports per-offense costs for the listed crime categories, but not the claimed $3,966–$8,953 range. It gives $3,532 for larceny/theft, $6,462 for household burglary, and less than $8,000 each for stolen property, vandalism, forgery and counterfeiting, embezzlement, and fraud. The crime categories and per-act framing are supported; the numerical range is not. (LLM, conf=0.90)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
The crime cost study used national data on criminal offenses, victim losses, productivity losses, and criminal justice system expenditures and has been used in several economic evaluation studies.
“This study used national data on criminal offenses, victim losses, productivity losses, and criminal justice system expenditures and has been used in several economic evaluation studies to date.”
From Monetary conversion factors for economic evaluations of substance use disorders (2017) · cites this paper as McCollister, French, & Fang, 2010
The Data and Methods sections describe using national offense and criminal-justice expenditure data, alongside sources for victim and productivity losses; the Discussion (§6.2) notes that the loss data came from several disparate sources. The Conclusion (§7) proposes using the estimates in future economic evaluations, but does not establish that this study had already been used in several such studies. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe 18-month Set Free Model prototype may result in a combined cost savings and net economic benefit of up to $6.25 million.
“According to cost-of-crime and economic benefit calculations provided by the Alaska Mental Health Trust Authority (2020) and McCollister et al. (2010), respectively, the 18-month Set Free Model prototype may result in a combined cost savings and net economic benefit of up to $6.25 million.”
From Reducing criminal recidivism in Alaska: The Set Free Model (2023) · cites this paper as McCollister et al. (2010)
Section 6.1 explains how crime-cost estimates can be used to calculate savings and net economic benefits, and gives a hypothetical aftercare example. It does not evaluate the 18-month Set Free Model prototype or substantiate the projected $6.25 million benefit; searches for the model and amount found no such calculation in our copy. Page numbers were not available. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe cost per criminal offense is taken from McCollister, French, and Fang (2010), which estimated the societal cost of crime for 13 unique offenses.
“The cost per criminal offense is taken from a study by McCollister, French, and Fang (2010) (McCollister, French, & Fang, 2010), which estimated the societal cost of crime for 13 unique offenses.”
From Monetary conversion factors for economic evaluations of substance use disorders (2017) · cites this paper as McCollister, French, & Fang, 2010
The crime cost estimates are societal, representing tangible and intangible costs per offense, including victims' pain and suffering and lost productivity.
“These are societal crime cost estimates, representing the tangible and intangible costs per offense, including the value of victims' pain and suffering and lost productivity.”
From Monetary conversion factors for economic evaluations of substance use disorders (2017) · cites this paper as McCollister, French, & Fang, 2010
McCollister et al. estimated that murder produced the greatest loss to society at nearly $9 million per offense, rape/sexual assault followed with a total per-offense cost of $240,776, and the economic cost of murder was more than 37 times the cost of rape.
“They estimated that murder produced the greatest loss to society at nearly $9 million per offense.Rape/ sexual assault followed murder with a total per-offense cost of $240,776.The economic cost of murder was more than 37 times the cost of rape, according to their estimates.”
From Rape or Homicide: Which Is Worse? (2024) · cites this paper as McCollister et al. (2010)
In the Mohler et al. study, potential savings to society from applying predictive policing versus hot spots policing were calculated using the methodology developed by McCollister et al. (2010).
“In this study, the potential savings to society from applying predictive policing versus hot spots policing were calculated using the methodology developed by McCollister et al. (2010).”
From ‘Led by Intelligence': A Scoping Review on the Experimental Evaluation of Intelligence-Led Policing (2024) · cites this paper as McCollister et al., 2010
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Influential
- Authors
- McCollister, K. E., French, M. T., & Fang, H.
- Affiliations
- University of Miami (US)
- Colorado School of Public Health (US)
- Corresponding author
- McCollister, Kathryn E.
- Venue
- Drug and Alcohol Dependence
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2010-04
- Volume
- 108
- Issue
- 1-2
- Pages
- 98-109
- ISSN
- 0376-8716 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC2835847
- OpenAlex
- W2167894329
- Cited by
- 584
- References
- 59
- Citations by year
- 2026: 15 · 2025: 25 · 2024: 22 · 2023: 36 · 2022: 58 · 2021: 45 · 2020: 39 · 2019: 45 · 2018: 51 · 2017: 62 · 2016: 45 · 2015: 54 · 2014: 25 · 2013: 25 · 2012: 12
- FWCI
- 60.14
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- europepmc.org
- Locations
- Drug and Alcohol Dependence (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Funders
- U.S. Department of Justice
- Federal Emergency Management Agency
- National Institute on Drug Abuse (R01DA018645, K01DA013962, K01 DA13962)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Crime Patterns and Interventions
- Social Sciences › Law › Criminal Justice and Penology
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Law, Economics, and Judicial Systems
- Keywords
- crime costs, crime types, addiction treatment, community policing, cost-benefit analysis, crime prevention programs, policy evaluation
- MeSH terms
- Costs and Cost Analysis, Crime, Criminal Law, Data Interpretation, Statistical, Homicide, Humans, Prisoners, Prisons, Public Policy, Socioeconomic Factors, United States, Program Evaluation, Models, Economic, Crime Victims
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