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Cited by 0Criminal Justice and Corrections AnalysisSubstance Abuse Treatment and OutcomesCrime Patterns and Interventions

Reducing criminal recidivism in Alaska: The Set Free Model

Open access
Ray, Ryan, Madison, Alli·2023·Journal of Community Safety and Well-Being
DOI 10.35502/jcswb.331
Open this paper in CoChat — free accountOpen PDF

Abstract

Crime associated with problematic substance use remains a defining characteristic in the United States criminal justice system. In Alaska, a perennial leader in US criminal recidivism rates, thousands of formerly incarcerated individuals continue to commit crimes and misuse drugs and alcohol following their release from incarceration. The total cost of these crimes to victims and Alaska’s criminal justice system is over $2.3 billion annually. The Set Free Model is a comprehensive intervention addressing the primary risk factors of criminal recidivism within an innovative therapeutic campus environment. Occurring within a four-phase operational framework for an average of 6 to 18 months, participants engage in a suite of services proven to reduce further criminal recidivism. These services include certified peer support, supportive housing, co-occurring substance use disorder treatment, career placement, intensive case management, and positive community reintegration. Over an 18-month period, the nonprofit treatment agency Set Free Alaska provided the Set Free Model to a sample of 32 formerly incarcerated adults at high risk of criminal recidivism. Participants displayed a 21.8% recidivism rate compared with the current rate of 66.4%. Treatment engagement rates significantly improved compared with traditional outpatient rates (94.7% vs. 66.7%). Employment rates were also remarkable compared with national employment rates at 1-year postrelease (100% vs. 37%). Validated calculations indicate the sample population may achieve $6.25 million in cost savings and net economic benefits. Evaluation results indicate the model possesses significant potential to reduce criminal recidivism and should be further expanded and evaluated.

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

This program evaluation describes the Set Free Model, a four-phase therapeutic-campus intervention for formerly incarcerated adults in Alaska at high risk of recidivism and problematic substance use. Over an 18-month prototype with 32 participants, the authors report lower recidivism and higher treatment engagement and employment than comparison rates.

Key findings

  • Of 32 participants, 5 were remanded for probation violations and 2 were arrested on new criminal charges, for an overall recidivism rate of 21.8%, compared with Alaska’s current rate of 66.4%.
  • Treatment engagement averaged 94.7% versus approximately 66.7% for existing outpatient/intensive outpatient attendance.
  • Employment was 83.3% within the first 6 months and 100% prior to transitioning out of the therapeutic campus, compared with 37% national employment at 1-year postrelease.
  • The authors report that validated calculations indicate the 18-month prototype may achieve up to $6.25 million in combined cost savings and net economic benefits.

Methods

  • Over an 18-month period, Set Free Alaska provided the Set Free Model prototype to 32 formerly incarcerated adults at high risk of problematic substance use and ongoing criminal behavior.
  • The model used a four-phase framework—Reentry, Recovery, Reintegration, and Restoration—with services including certified peer support, supportive housing, co-occurring substance use disorder treatment, education/training/career placement, intensive case management, and positive community reintegration.
  • A programmatic evaluation used de-identified Set Free Alaska treatment records and the publicly available State of Alaska CourtView arrest and remand database, then compared prototype participants with a control group of similar justice-involved individuals in Alaska.

Limitations

  • The paper states that COVID-19 pandemic protocols limited the sample size to 32 participants and that it is undetermined whether these protocols had a significant impact on participant outcomes.
  • The paper states that participation was voluntary, limiting Set Free Alaska staff’s ability to retain individuals who desired to leave before completing treatment; all 7 participants who were remanded or arrested left the therapeutic campus early.
  • The paper recommends tracking long-term recidivism beyond the 18-month period; evident from the text, the evaluation is small, non-randomized, and the comparison group is not described in detail.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.35502/jcswb.331

Cites

26 of 26 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Claims the paper makes

5 of 29 cited sources checked · 2 supported · 1 flagged · accuracy not yet measured

  • Premisecitation

    Intensive case management is a crucial community-based service for desistance from further criminal behaviours and problematic substance use.

    “A comprehensive meta-analysis of interventions for offenders with substance use disorders highlighted intensive case management as a crucial community-based service for the desistance from further criminal behaviours and problematic substance use (Prendergast, 2009).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Prendergast, 2009 source

      The Case Management section describes case management as a community-based service, but reports mixed results for TASC programs and limited effects of other models on post-treatment drug use. The Re-Entry Interventions section says a meta-analytical review found no significant impact of case management on recidivism. That contradicts the claim that this paper’s meta-analysis highlighted intensive case management as crucial for reducing both crime and problematic substance use. (LLM, conf=0.88)

      Checked by a reasoning model — may be wrong.

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • Premisecitation

    Almost 85% of inmates who could benefit from treatment do not receive it within a US correctional facility.

    “Almost 85% of inmates who could benefit from treatment do not receive it within a US correctional facility (Chandler et al., 2009).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Chandler et al., 2009 source
  • Premisecitation

    The quality and meaningfulness of ongoing support connections is particularly influential in goals relating to problematic substance use.

    “While the presence of ongoing support is essential for long-term success in reintegration and recidivism reduction, the quality and meaningfulness of these connections is particularly influential in goals relating to problematic substance use (Lookatch et al., 2019).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Lookatch et al., 2019 source
  • Premisecitation

    Individuals at high risk for recidivism and problematic substance use have typically experienced substantial amounts of childhood and adult trauma.

    “Individuals at high risk for recidivism and problematic substance use have typically experienced substantial amounts of childhood and adult trauma (Wolff & Shi, 2012).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Wolff & Shi, 2012 source

      The Abstract reports high rates of childhood and adult trauma among incarcerated men, and Results §3.3 links both childhood and adult trauma to substance abuse problems. The paper does not identify a group at high risk for recidivism or establish that such a group typically has substantial trauma histories; its findings concern incarcerated men, not a recidivism-risk category. (LLM, conf=0.88)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • Interpretationcitation

    The 18-month Set Free Model prototype may result in a combined cost savings and net economic benefit of up to $6.25 million.

    “According to cost-of-crime and economic benefit calculations provided by the Alaska Mental Health Trust Authority (2020) and McCollister et al. (2010), respectively, the 18-month Set Free Model prototype may result in a combined cost savings and net economic benefit of up to $6.25 million.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Alaska Mental Health Trust Authority (2020)

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites McCollister et al. (2010) source

      Section 6.1 explains how crime-cost estimates can be used to calculate savings and net economic benefits, and gives a hypothetical aftercare example. It does not evaluate the 18-month Set Free Model prototype or substantiate the projected $6.25 million benefit; searches for the model and amount found no such calculation in our copy. Page numbers were not available. (LLM, conf=0.86)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • Rests on an assumption: The cost-of-crime and economic benefit estimates from the cited sources apply to the crimes and population in the Set Free Model prototype.
  • May combine two claims. 8
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 8

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Set Free Model participants achieved an average treatment attendance rate of 94.7%, compared with an existing outpatient and intensive outpatient attendance rate average of approximately 66.7%.

    “Treatment engagement rates significantly improved compared with traditional outpatient rates (94.7% vs. 66.7%).”
    • Also stated in: § RESULTS · plain
      “Prototype participants achieved an average attendance rate of 94.7% compared with the existing outpatient and intensive outpatient attendance rate average of approximately 66.7%.”
    • Also stated in: § CONCLUSION · plain
      “Treatment Engagement/ Meeting Attendance 94.7% 66.7%”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: The existing outpatient and intensive outpatient attendance rate average of approximately 66.7% is a valid comparison for Set Free Model participants.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Of the 32 Set Free Model participants, 5 were remanded due to probation violations and 2 were arrested on new criminal charges.

    “Of the 32 formerly incarcerated participants in the Set Free Model prototype, 5 were remanded due to probation violations and 2 were arrested on new criminal charges for an overall recidivism rate of 21.8%.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Set Free Model participants had an 83.3% employment rate within 6 months, compared with 38% for non-participants.

    “Employment within 6 months post-release 83.3% 38%”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: The non-participant employment rate of 38% within 6 months is a valid comparison for Set Free Model participants.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductown data

    A comparative analysis was conducted to assess differences between prototype participants and a control group of similar justice-involved individuals with problematic substance use challenges in Alaska.

    “A comparative analysis was then conducted to assess differences, if any, between prototype participants and a control group of similar justice-involved individuals with problematic substance use challenges in Alaska.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Over 451,000 Americans are incarcerated for a nonviolent drug offense every day.

    “Over 451,000 Americans are incarcerated for a nonviolent drug offense every day (Sawyer & Wagner, 2019).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Sawyer & Wagner, 2019

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    Set Free Model prototype participants achieved a 100% employment rate at 1-year postrelease, compared with the national employment rate of 37%.

    “Employment rates were also remarkable compared with national employment rates at 1-year postrelease (100% vs. 37%).”
    • Also stated in: § CONCLUSION · plain
      “Employment at 1 year post-release 100% 37%”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Carson et al., 2021

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • Rests on an assumption: The national employment rate of 37% at 1-year postrelease is a valid comparison for Set Free Model participants.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    The US Sentencing Commission identifies individuals with a high school diploma or less and a lower socio-economic status as the most likely to be rearrested.

    “The US Sentencing Commission (2016) further identifies individuals with a high school diploma or less and a lower socio-economic status as the most likely to be rearrested.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites US Sentencing Commission, 2016

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The Set Free Model's services (certified peer support, supportive housing, co-occurring substance use disorder treatment, education, training, and career placement, intensive case management, and positive community reintegration) are proven to reduce further criminal recidivism and problematic substance use.

    “Living on a therapeutic campus for an average of 6 to 18 months, participants engage in a suite of services proven to reduce further criminal recidivism and problematic substance use.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Boman & Mowen, 2017 source
    • cites Gonzales et al., 2019

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Fontaine, 2013

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductnone given

    Due to COVID-19 pandemic protocols, the sample size during the prototype's 18-month evaluation had to be limited to 32 participants.

    “Due to COVID-19 pandemic protocols, the sample size during the prototype's 18-month evaluation had to be limited to 32 participants.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The total cost of crimes directly attributed to drug and alcohol misuse in Alaska in 2017 was over $2.3 billion, with an average total cost per crime of $90,923.

    “The total cost of these crimes to the victims and to Alaska's criminal justice system was over $2.3 billion, with an average total cost per crime of $90,923 (Alaska Mental Health Trust Authority, 2020).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Alaska Mental Health Trust Authority, 2020

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The Set Free Model is capable of achieving significant social impact and reduced recidivism rates.

    “it is reasonable to conclude that the Set Free Model is capable of achieving significant social impact and reduced recidivism rates.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: The 32 Set Free Model participants are representative of the broader population of formerly incarcerated adults with substance use disorders in Alaska.
    • Rests on an assumption: The treatment engagement, employment, and recidivism outcomes are attributable to the Set Free Model rather than other factors.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Access to substance use disorder treatment, positive relational networks, economic viability, and increased recreational activities are important factors in reducing a return to problematic substance use and criminal behaviours.

    “Wooditch et al. (2014) particularly highlight access to substance use disorder treatment, positive relational networks, economic viability, and increased recreational activities as important factors in reducing a return to problematic substance use and criminal behaviours.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Wooditch et al., 2014

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductnone given

    A programmatic evaluation was conducted using a combination of Set Free Alaska's de-identified treatment records and the publicly available State of Alaska CourtView arrest and remand database.

    “A programmatic evaluation was conducted using a combination of Set Free Alaska's de-identified treatment records and the publicly available State of Alaska CourtView arrest and remand database.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    25,450 Alaskans were victims of crimes directly attributed to drug and alcohol misuse in 2017.

    “The Alaska Mental Health Trust Authority (2020) recently reported that 25,450 Alaskans were victims of crimes directly attributed to drug and alcohol misuse in 2017.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Alaska Mental Health Trust Authority, 2020

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Only 37% of formerly incarcerated individuals nationally are able to find employment within the first year after their release.

    “Although employment and economic viability are identified as critical to maintaining a sober and crime-free lifestyle, only 37% of formerly incarcerated individuals nationally are able to find employment within the first year after their release (Carson et al., 2021).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Carson et al., 2021

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

15 of 15

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The Alaska statewide recidivism rate of 66.4% is a valid comparison for the Set Free Model prototype participants.

    “the recidivism rate demonstrated in the prototype evaluation was a marked improvement over the current rate being reported in the state of Alaska of 66.4% (see Table I).”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The existing outpatient and intensive outpatient attendance rate average of approximately 66.7% is a valid comparison for Set Free Model participants.

    “Prototype participants achieved an average attendance rate of 94.7% compared with the existing outpatient and intensive outpatient attendance rate average of approximately 66.7%.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The cost-of-crime and economic benefit estimates from the cited sources apply to the crimes and population in the Set Free Model prototype.

    “According to cost-of-crime and economic benefit calculations provided by the Alaska Mental Health Trust Authority (2020) and McCollister et al. (2010), respectively, the 18-month Set Free Model prototype may result in a combined cost savings and net economic benefit of up to $6.25 million.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The national employment rate of 37% at 1-year postrelease is a valid comparison for Set Free Model participants.

    “Employment rates were also remarkable compared with national employment rates at 1-year postrelease (100% vs. 37%).”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The non-participant employment rate of 38% within 6 months is a valid comparison for Set Free Model participants.

    “Employment within 6 months post-release 83.3% 38%”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The 32 Set Free Model participants are representative of the broader population of formerly incarcerated adults with substance use disorders in Alaska.

    “provided the Set Free Model prototype to 32 formerly incarcerated adults who were at high risk of problematic substance use and ongoing criminal behavior.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The State of Alaska CourtView arrest and remand database accurately captures recidivism for the study participants.

    “A programmatic evaluation was conducted using a combination of Set Free Alaska's de-identified treatment records and the publicly available State of Alaska CourtView arrest and remand database.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Alaska lacks sufficient community-based infrastructure and service capacity to meet the needs of formerly incarcerated individuals with substance use disorders at risk of recidivism.

    “However, the state significantly lacks the community-based infrastructure and service capacity to effectively meet the needs of individuals with substance use disorders who are at risk of ongoing criminal activity.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    A viable community-based option capable of addressing all criminogenic needs within one model does not currently exist in Alaska.

    “A viable, community-based option capable of addressing all criminogenic needs within one model does not currently exist in Alaska.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The Set Free Model was implemented as intended across participants.

    “All participants received services in line with the Set Free Model's four-phase operational framework.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The treatment engagement, employment, and recidivism outcomes are attributable to the Set Free Model rather than other factors.

    “Overall, the Set Free Model appears to provide a substantial opportunity for changing criminogenic needs.”
11 of 11

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

1 of the 27 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.

Related

Authors
Ray, R., & Madison, A.
Venue
Journal of Community Safety and Well-Being
Publisher
SG Publishing
Published
2023-09-14
Volume
8
Issue
3
Pages
119-124
ISSN
2371-4298 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.35502/jcswb.331
OpenAlex
W4386737117
Semantic Scholar
52e0dc7a1c26363147ed5707e752472d56df1a82
Cited by
0
References
27
FWCI
0.00
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Journal of Community Safety and Well-Being (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Criminal Justice and Corrections Analysis
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Substance Abuse Treatment and Outcomes
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Crime Patterns and Interventions
Keywords
recidivism, formerly incarcerated individuals, addiction treatment, co-occurring disorders, peer support, supported housing, job placement, intensive case management, community reintegration, treatment engagement, post-release employment, cost reduction, Alaska

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Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-27.

Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-27.

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