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Cited by 54Substance Abuse Treatment and OutcomesAlcohol Consumption and Health EffectsStatistical Methods in Epidemiology

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 42 of the 42 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

Regression to the mean and alcohol consumption: A cohort study exploring implications for the interpretation of change in control groups in brief intervention trials

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McCambridge, Jim, Kypri, Kypros, McElduff, Patrick·2014·Drug and Alcohol Dependence
DOI 10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2013.11.017PMC PMC3929002
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Abstract

BACKGROUND: Reductions in drinking among individuals randomised to control groups in brief alcohol intervention trials are common and suggest that asking study participants about their drinking may itself cause them to reduce their consumption. We sought to test the hypothesis that the statistical artefact regression to the mean (RTM) explains part of the reduction in such studies. METHODS: 967 participants in a cohort study of alcohol consumption in New Zealand provided data at baseline and again six months later. We use graphical methods and apply thresholds of 8, 12, 16 and 20 in AUDIT scores to explore RTM. RESULTS: There was a negative association between baseline AUDIT scores and change in AUDIT scores from baseline to six months, which in the absence of bias and confounding, is RTM. Students with lower baseline scores tended to have higher follow-up scores and conversely, those with higher baseline scores tended to have lower follow-up scores. When a threshold score of 8 was used to select a subgroup, the observed mean change was approximately half of that observed without a threshold. The application of higher thresholds produced greater apparent reductions in alcohol consumption. CONCLUSIONS: Part of the reduction seen in the control groups of brief alcohol intervention trials is likely to be due to RTM and the amount of change is likely to be greater as the threshold for entry to the trial increases. Quantification of RTM warrants further study and should assist understanding assessment and other research participation effects.

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  • Reduction of alcohol use regardless of treatment allocation is observed in other alcohol intervention trials, especially in emergency care settings, due to contextual factors such as trauma exposure or the acute care experience.

    “This is observed in other alcohol intervention trials, especially those conducted in emergency care settings, due to contextual factors such as trauma exposure or the acute care experience [15,27,37,41–43].”

    From Effectiveness of a brief intervention and text-based booster in the emergency department to reduce harmful and hazardous alcohol use: A pragmatic randomized adaptive clinical trial in Moshi, Tanzania (2025) · cites this paper as [42]

    The Introduction and Discussion (page numbers unavailable) report reduced drinking in control groups of brief alcohol intervention trials, supporting the observation of reductions without the intervention. They do not identify emergency care trials as an especially prominent setting or attribute reductions to trauma exposure or the acute care experience; the paper instead discusses regression to the mean and possible research-participation effects. (LLM, conf=0.86)

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  • The impact of online self-help in reducing alcohol consumption may have been underestimated because control group drinking was also assessed, and such assessment alone possibly motivates controls to reduce their consumption.

    “Third, the impact of online self-help in reducing alcohol consumption may have been underestimated here because control group drinking was also assessed; such assessment alone possibly motivates controls to reduce their consumption [83], [84].”

    From Effectiveness of Guided and Unguided Low-Intensity Internet Interventions for Adult Alcohol Misuse: A Meta-Analysis (2014) · cites this paper as [84]

  • The impact of online self-help in reducing alcohol consumption may have been underestimated because control group drinking was also assessed, and such assessment alone possibly motivates controls to reduce their consumption.

    “Third, the impact of online self-help in reducing alcohol consumption may have been underestimated here because control group drinking was also assessed; such assessment alone possibly motivates controls to reduce their consumption [83], [84].”

    From Effectiveness of Guided and Unguided Low-Intensity Internet Interventions for Adult Alcohol Misuse: A Meta-Analysis (2014) · cites this paper as [83]

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Research works printed but not linked: 1

  1. McCambridge, 2013, In randomisation we trust? Possible problems in experimenting with people in behavioural intervention trials, J. Clin. Epidemiol.

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Metadata

Authors
McCambridge, J., Kypri, K., & McElduff, P.
Affiliations
  • London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (GB)
  • University of Newcastle Australia (AU)
Corresponding author
McCambridge, Jim
ORCID
Venue
Drug and Alcohol Dependence
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Published
2014-02
Volume
135
Pages
156-159
ISSN
0376-8716 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2013.11.017
PMC
PMC3929002
OpenAlex
W2104367365
Cited by
54
References
41
Citations by year
2025: 3 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 2 · 2022: 11 · 2021: 5 · 2020: 4 · 2019: 1 · 2018: 7 · 2017: 3 · 2016: 5 · 2015: 5 · 2014: 3
FWCI
3.16
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Drug and Alcohol Dependence (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • LSHTM Research Online (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine) (acceptedVersion)
  • NOVA (University of Newcastle Australia) (submittedVersion)
  • Figshare (submittedVersion)
Funders
Wellcome Trust (WT086516MA)
Topics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Substance Abuse Treatment and Outcomes
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Pathology and Forensic Medicine › Alcohol Consumption and Health Effects
  • Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods in Epidemiology
Keywords
regression to the mean, alcohol consumption, brief alcohol intervention, control groups, trial interpretation, AUDIT score, threshold selection, students
MeSH terms
Adolescent, Alcohol Drinking, Female, Humans, Longitudinal Studies, Male, New Zealand, Surveys and Questionnaires, Regression Analysis, Students, Cohort Studies, Control Groups, Young Adult, Early Medical Intervention

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