Narrative-driven alternative roads to achieve mid-century CO2 net neutrality in Europe
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The tightened climate mitigation targets of the EU green deal raise an important question: Which strategy should be used to achieve carbon emissions net neutrality? This study explores stakeholder-designed narratives of the future energy system development within the deep decarbonization context. European carbon net-neutrality goals are put under test in a model comparison exercise using state of the art Energy-Environment-Economy (E3) models: ETM-UCL, PRIMES and REMIND. Results show that while achieving the transition to carbon neutrality by mid-century is feasible under quite different future energy systems, some robust commonalities emerge. Electrification of end use sectors combined with large-scale expansion of renewable energy is a no-regret decision for all strategies; Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) plays an important role for achieving net-neutral targets under all scenarios, but is most relevant when demand-side changes are limited; hydrogen and synthetic fuels can be a relevant mitigation option for mid-century mitigation in hard-to-abate sectors; energy efficiency can reduce the supply system strain. Finally, high carbon prices (300–900€/tCO2) are needed under all strategies in order to achieve carbon net neutrality in 2050.
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Carbon neutrality is technically feasible with future energy technologies by mid-century.
“The findings indicated that carbon neutrality is technically feasible with future energy technologies by mid-century.”
From Strategies to achieve a carbon neutral society: a review (2022) · cites this paper as Rodrigues et al. 2022
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- Authors
- Rodrigues, R., Pietzcker, R., Fragkos, P., Price, J., McDowall, W., Siskos, P., Fotiou, T., Luderer, G., & Capros, P.
- Affiliations
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
- University College London (GB)
- Technische Universität Berlin (DE)
- Corresponding author
- Rodrigues, Renato
- ORCID
- Venue
- Energy
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2022-01
- Volume
- 239
- Pages
- 121908
- ISSN
- 0360-5442 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3197085034
- Cited by
- 90
- References
- 40
- Citations by year
- 2026: 12 · 2025: 17 · 2024: 15 · 2023: 22 · 2022: 24
- FWCI
- 4.49
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Energy (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion)
- Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Funders
- European Commission (730403)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Electrical and Electronic Engineering › Integrated Energy Systems Optimization
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Sustainability and Climate Change Governance
- Keywords
- carbon neutrality, deep decarbonization, EU climate policy, energy scenarios, carbon dioxide removal, hydrogen, synthetic fuels, electrification, renewable energy deployment, energy efficiency, carbon pricing, hard-to-abate sectors, stakeholder narratives, REMIND, prime numbers
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