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Cited by 7Economics of Agriculture and Food MarketsMarket Dynamics and VolatilityAgricultural economics and policies

Global shocks and local sellers: Kenyan fertilizer markets’ response to the fuel-fertilizer-food price crisis

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Willwerth, Hanna S., Khaemba, Colleta N., Serra, Teresa, Michelson, Hope C., Rutsaert, Pieter, Donovan, Jason·2025·Food Policy
DOI 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102889
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Abstract

Global fertilizer prices doubled during the 2020–2022 fuel-fertilizer-food crisis, pushing an additional 210 million people into acute food insecurity. We use transaction-level data from agro-dealers to analyze how this global shock transmitted through Kenyan retail markets. How global price shocks spread across rural markets to affect firms and farmers in low-income countries remains poorly understood. We show that retail fertilizer prices in Kenya rose 81% on average during the crisis, with remarkable spatial variation ranging from 5% decreases to 138% increases across shops. We use dyadic panel analysis to identify changes in price transmission and in market integration across Kenyan fertilizer retailers and to evaluate the effects of government policy intervention. We find evidence of asymmetric price transmission; agro-dealer prices responded faster to import price increases than decreases. We show that larger shops and major agricultural production zones experienced faster price transmission and stronger integration with import markets relative to high-poverty areas. Kenya’s National Fertilizer Subsidy Program slowed price transmission but may have prolonged higher fertilizer retail prices. Our results imply that farmers do not benefit as rapidly from input price reductions as they would under symmetric transmission. Our results also demonstrate that global shocks transmit unevenly across markets, suggesting effective stabilization policies should account for heterogeneity in market conditions and variable pass-through behavior.

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Crossref · 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102889

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  1. Ariga, J., Jayne, T.S., 2011. Fertilizer in Kenya: Factors Driving the Increase in Usage by Smallholder Farmers. In: Yes Africa Can: Success Stories from a Dynamic Continent. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank, pp. 269-288.

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Authors
Willwerth, H. S., Khaemba, C. N., Serra, T., Michelson, H. C., Rutsaert, P., & Donovan, J.
Affiliations
  • University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (US)
  • International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (KE)
  • Centro Internacional de Mejoramiento de Maíz Y Trigo (MX)
Corresponding author
Willwerth, Hanna S.
ORCID
Venue
Food Policy
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Published
2025-05
Volume
133
Pages
102889
ISSN
0306-9192 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102889
OpenAlex
W4411065419
Semantic Scholar
201e5dd2bebae77688d81b1b0bf71a3421d64925
Cited by
7
References
54
Citations by year
2026: 6 · 2025: 1
FWCI
5.05
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Food Policy (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
  • CGSPace A Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
Funders
  • USAID (INV-003439)
  • Foundation for Food and Agriculture Research
  • Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
  • Consortium of International Agricultural Research Centers
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economics of Agriculture and Food Markets
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Market Dynamics and Volatility
  • Social Sciences › Safety Research › Agricultural economics and policies
Keywords
fertilizer prices, price transmission, market integration, agro-dealers, food insecurity, import prices, Kenya, agricultural input prices, market heterogeneity

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