Contrasting approaches to projecting long-run global food security
Abstract
The provision of food has been a central preoccupation of policy-makers throughout history. Today we are witnessing a period of food security pessimism triggered by increases in food prices, and their higher volatility, that began in 2008. However, previous episodes of food pessimism were ended by the Industrial and Green Revolutions, and policy-makers legitimately ask whether human ingenuity and technical advances will address today’s worries without the need for their intervention. Here we explore some of the ways natural and social scientists have attempted to explore the supply and demand for food in the future to help policy-makers understand the challenges ahead. We are particularly struck that different communities have approached this problem in different ways that seldom reference each other. We describe two broad approaches: statistical extrapolation and economic simulation models of the food system that incorporate market mechanisms. We compare the strengths and weaknesses of the different approaches and make some tentative suggestions about how they can together address important policy priorities.
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A second factor is that differences in methods for modelling long-run global food security can strongly influence results.
“Second, differences in methods for modelling long-run global food security can strongly influence the results 7,46 .”
From A meta-analysis of projected global food demand and population at risk of hunger for the period 2010–2050 (2021) · cites this paper as [7]
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- Authors
- Godfray, H. C. J., & Robinson, S.
- Affiliations
- University of Oxford (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Godfray, H. C. J.
- ORCID
- Robinson, S.
- Venue
- Oxford Review of Economic Policy
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2015-03-01
- Volume
- 31
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 26-44
- ISSN
- 0266-903X (ISSN-L)
- 1460-2121
- OpenAlex
- W2269561008
- Cited by
- 28
- References
- 61
- Citations by year
- 2025: 1 · 2024: 4 · 2023: 5 · 2022: 3 · 2021: 4 · 2020: 2 · 2019: 1 · 2018: 3 · 2017: 1 · 2016: 3 · 2015: 1
- FWCI
- 6.44
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Oxford Review of Economic Policy (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- IFPRI E-brary (International Food Policy Research Institute) (submittedVersion)
- CGSPace A Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research) (submittedVersion)
- International Food Policy Research Institute (International Food Policy Research Institute) (submittedVersion)
- HighWire Press Open Archive (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/M021386/1)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economics of Agriculture and Food Markets
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › General Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Food Security and Socioeconomic Dynamics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Food Science › Agricultural and Food Production Studies
- Keywords
- global food security, food price volatility, statistical extrapolation, market mechanisms, Industrial Revolution, Green Revolution, food policy
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