Enhancing global climate policy ambition towards a 1.5 °C stabilization: a short-term multi-model assessment
Open accessAbstract
The Paris Agreement is a milestone in international climate policy as it establishes a global mitigation framework towards 2030 and sets the ground for a potential 1.5 °C climate stabilization. To provide useful insights for the 2018 UNFCCC Talanoa facilitative dialogue, we use eight state-of-the-art climate-energy-economy models to assess the effectiveness of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) in meeting high probability 1.5 and 2 °C stabilization goals. We estimate that the implementation of conditional INDCs in 2030 leaves an emissions gap from least cost 2 °C and 1.5 °C pathways for year 2030 equal to 15.6 (9.0–20.3) and 24.6 (18.5–29.0) GtCO 2 eq respectively. The immediate transition to a more efficient and low-carbon energy system is key to achieving the Paris goals. The decarbonization of the power supply sector delivers half of total CO 2 emission reductions in all scenarios, primarily through high penetration of renewables and energy efficiency improvements. In combination with an increased electrification of final energy demand, low-carbon power supply is the main short-term abatement option. We find that the global macroeconomic cost of mitigation efforts does not reduce the 2020–2030 annual GDP growth rates in any model more than 0.1 percentage points in the INDC or 0.3 and 0.5 in the 2 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios respectively even without accounting for potential co-benefits and avoided climate damages. Accordingly, the median GDP reductions across all models in 2030 are 0.4%, 1.2% and 3.3% of reference GDP for each respective scenario. Costs go up with increasing mitigation efforts but a fragmented action, as implied by the INDCs, results in higher costs per unit of abated emissions. On a regional level, the cost distribution is different across scenarios while fossil fuel exporters see the highest GDP reductions in all INDC, 2 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios.
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Previous studies have shown that taken together, NDCs and national policies fall significantly short of the overall ambition of the Paris Agreement.
“Previous studies have highlighted that taken together, the NDCs and national policies fall significantly short of the overall ambition of the Paris Agreement2–4.”
From Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement (2020) · cites this paper as [3]
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- Authors
- Vrontisi, Z., Luderer, G., Saveyn, B., Keramidas, K., Lara, A. R., Baumstark, L., Bertram, C., de Boer, H. S., Drouet, L., Fragkiadakis, K., Fricko, O., Fujimori, S., Guivarch, C., Kitous, A., Krey, V., Kriegler, E., Broin, E. Ó., Paroussos, L., & van Vuuren, D.
- Affiliations
- Joint Research Center (ES)
- Leibniz Association (DE)
- CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (IT)
- National Technical University of Athens (GR)
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT)
- National Institute for Environmental Studies (JP)
- École nationale des ponts et chaussées (FR)
- Corresponding author
- Saveyn, Bert
- ORCID
- Venue
- Environmental Research Letters
- Publisher
- IOP Publishing
- Published
- 2018-04-01
- Volume
- 13
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 044039
- ISSN
- 1748-9326 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2799893478
- Cited by
- 79
- References
- 40
- Citations by year
- 2026: 5 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 8 · 2023: 11 · 2022: 15 · 2021: 17 · 2020: 7 · 2019: 7 · 2018: 5
- FWCI
- 13.71
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Environmental Research Letters (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (submittedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- Utrecht University Repository (Utrecht University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Funders
- FP7 Environment (no. 308329 (ADVANCE))
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Energy, Environment, Economic Growth
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Geoengineering
- Keywords
- Paris Agreement, Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, emissions gap, climate policy ambition, low-carbon transition, renewable energy, energy efficiency, GDP growth, 2030 scenarios
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
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