The DOI matches its Crossref record; 24 of the 24 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Forecasting life expectancy in an international context
Abstract
Over the past two centuries, the life expectancy has more than doubled in many countries, for both males and females. The levels of the countries with the highest life expectancies have risen almost linearly. We exploit this regularity by using the classic univariate ARIMA model to forecast future levels of best-practice life expectancy. We then compare two alternative stochastic models for forecasting the gap between the best-practice level and life expectancy in a particular population. One of our approaches is based on the concept of discrete geometric Brownian motion; our other approach relies on a discrete model of geometric mean-reverting processes. A key advantage of our strategy is that the life expectancies forecast for different countries are positively correlated because of their tie to the forecast best-practice line. We provide illustrations based on Italian and US data.
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“This composite set of death rates is nearly identical to a ‘best practice’ life expectancy used to justify forecasts of much higher life expectancies than those observed today24.”
From Implausibility of radical life extension in humans in the twenty-first century (2024) · cites this paper as [24]
Citations
Cites
Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root
Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.1080/01621459.1979.10482531 · Cited by 23,211
Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control
Geurts, M., Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1977) · Journal of Marketing Research · doi:10.2307/3150485 · Cited by 19,186
Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root
Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.2307/2286348 · Cited by 9,106
Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting
(2002) · Springer Texts in Statistics · doi:10.1007/b97391 · Cited by 3,807
Broken Limits to Life Expectancy
Oeppen, J., & Vaupel, J. W. (2002) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1069675 · Cited by 2,819
Self-citationModeling and Forecasting U.S. Mortality
Lee, R. D., & Carter, L. R. (1992) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.1080/01621459.1992.10475265 · Cited by 2,236
On the theory of brownian motion
Mazur, P. (1959) · Physica · doi:10.1016/s0031-8914(59)91931-7 · Cited by 904
Vaupel, J. W. (2010) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature08984 · Cited by 863
Self-citationBiodemographic Trajectories of Longevity
Vaupel, J. W., Carey, J. R., Christensen, K., Johnson, T. E., Yashin, A. I., Holm, N. V., Iachine, I. A., Kannisto, V., Khazaeli, A. A., Liedo, P., et al. (1998) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.280.5365.855 · Cited by 803
Self-citationCoherent mortality forecasts for a group of populations: An extension of the lee-carter method
Li, N., & Lee, R. (2005) · Demography · doi:10.1353/dem.2005.0021 · Cited by 622
Research works printed but not linked: 1
- Lee, 1992, Modeling and forecasting US mortality, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 87, 659, 10.2307/2290201 · DOI
Cited by
Implausibility of radical life extension in humans in the twenty-first century
Olshansky, S. J., Willcox, B. J., Demetrius, L., & Beltrán-Sánchez, H. (2024) · Nature Aging · doi:10.1038/s43587-024-00702-3 · Cited by 115
Metadata
- Authors
- Torri, T., & Vaupel, J. W.
- Venue
- International Journal of Forecasting
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2012-04
- Volume
- 28
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 519-531
- ISSN
- 0169-2070
- Cited by
- 69
- References
- 24
- Language
- en
- Licence
- www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/ (tdm)
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