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Combining forecasts: An application to elections
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“Combining forecasts has reduced errors from about 10% to 58% (depending on the conditions) compared to the average errors of the uncombined individual forecasts (Graefe, et al 2011).”
From Illusions in Regression Analysis (2011) · cites this paper as Graefe, et al 2011
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Metadata
- Authors
- Graefe, A., Armstrong, J. S., Jones, R. J., & Cuzán, A. G.
- Affiliations
- Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (DE)
- University of South Australia (AU)
- University of Central Oklahoma (US)
- University of West Florida (US)
- Corresponding author
- Graefe, Andreas
- Venue
- International Journal of Forecasting
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2014-01
- Volume
- 30
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 43-54
- ISSN
- 0169-2070 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2008534646
- Cited by
- 160
- References
- 65
- Citations by year
- 2026: 4 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 6 · 2022: 14 · 2021: 16 · 2020: 14 · 2019: 10 · 2018: 17 · 2017: 15 · 2016: 22 · 2015: 15 · 2014: 12
- FWCI
- 23.68
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- papers.ssrn.com
- Locations
- International Journal of Forecasting (publishedVersion)
- SSRN Electronic Journal (submittedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Adelaide Research & Scholarship (AR&S) (University of Adelaide) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Forecasting Techniques and Applications
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Sports Analytics and Performance
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Electoral Systems and Political Participation
- Keywords
- forecast combination, election forecasting, US presidential election, expert opinion, Iowa Electronic Markets, forecast accuracy, forecast uncertainty, forecast averaging
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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