Variability in suicidal ideation: a better predictor of suicide attempts than intensity or duration of ideation?
Abstract
Background Much of the suicidology literature focuses on establishing contextual risk factors for suicidal behavior. However, the study of the parameters of suicidal behavior (e.g., intensity, duration, and variability) has been somewhat neglected . Having previously established a relationship between variability in suicidal ideation and a previous history of suicide attempts [Witte, T.K, Fitzpatrick, K.K., Warren, K.L., Schatschneider, C., Schmidt, N.B., submitted for publication. Naturalistic Evaluation of Suicidal Ideation: Variability and Relation to Attempt Status], we felt it important to assess the liability conferred by a variable pattern of ideation compared to the intensity and duration of suicidal thoughts. We also examined if there was an interaction between gender and the parameters of intensity, duration, and variability.Method One hundred eight participants (54 non-attempters, 35 single attempters, and 19 multiple attempters) completed the Suicide Probability Scale every day for 4 weeks, allowing us to measure the parameters of interest. These variables were entered into a regression model as predictors of previous suicide attempts.Results Consistent with prediction, high variability of ideation was the only significant predictor of previous attempt status. In addition, an interaction between gender and variability in suicidal ideation suggested that variability appeared more critical in predicting previous attempts for males.Limitations The limited number of multiple attempters in our sample and the use of college students limit the current study.Conclusions Variability appears to be the most potent predictor of attempt status among the parameters of suicidal ideation examined in the current study. This relationship appears to be particularly important in males, suggesting that fluctuating levels of suicidal ideation may confer future risk for suicide.
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Between-day variability in suicidal ideation may be a better predictor of suicide than its intensity or duration.
“it has been suggested that (between-day) variability in suicidal ideation may be a better predictor of suicide than its intensity or duration (37, 38).”
From Don't Miss the Moment: A Systematic Review of Ecological Momentary Assessment in Suicide Research (2022) · cites this paper as [38]
Witte and colleagues have proposed that variability in suicidal ideation may provide a more reliable index of suicide risk than the severity or duration of ideation alone.
“Witte and colleagues (37, 38) have proposed that such variability in suicidal ideation may provide a more reliable index of suicide risk than the severity or duration of ideation alone.”
From Don't Miss the Moment: A Systematic Review of Ecological Momentary Assessment in Suicide Research (2022) · cites this paper as [38]
Identifying instability in suicidal ideation offers promise in improving the detection of those most at risk of suicide.
“identifying instability in suicidal ideation offers promise in improving the detection of those most at risk of suicide (37, 38)”
From Don't Miss the Moment: A Systematic Review of Ecological Momentary Assessment in Suicide Research (2022) · cites this paper as [38]
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- Authors
- WITTE, T., FITZPATRICK, K., JOINERJR, T., & SCHMIDT, N.
- Affiliations
- Florida State University (US)
- The Ohio State University (US)
- Corresponding author
- SCHMIDT, N
- Venue
- Journal of Affective Disorders
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2005-10
- Volume
- 88
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 131-136
- ISSN
- 0165-0327 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W1972344081
- Cited by
- 139
- References
- 19
- Citations by year
- 2026: 8 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 9 · 2023: 5 · 2022: 8 · 2021: 5 · 2020: 10 · 2019: 6 · 2018: 7 · 2017: 10 · 2016: 8 · 2015: 11 · 2014: 5 · 2013: 9 · 2012: 6
- FWCI
- 5.01
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Journal of Affective Disorders (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Clinical Psychology › Suicide and Self-Harm Studies
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Social Psychology › Mental Health via Writing
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Mental Health Research Topics
- Keywords
- suicidal ideation, suicide attempts, suicide attempt history, gender differences, Suicide Probability Scale, suicide risk prediction, university students
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Bipolar Disorder, Major Depressive Disorder, Female, Humans, Male, Predictive Value of Tests, Sex Factors, Suicide, Attempted, Time Factors, Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders
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