CoChat
Sign Up
Cited by 391Economic Growth and ProductivityAgricultural Economics and PracticesAgricultural economics and policies

The DOI matches its Crossref record; the references it cites are not checked yet.

Fertilizing growth: Agricultural inputs and their effects in economic development

Open access
McArthur, John W., McCord, Gordon C.·2017·Journal of Development Economics
DOI 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2017.02.007PMC PMC5726111
Open this paper in CoChat — free accountOpen PDF

Abstract

This paper estimates the role of agronomic inputs in cereal yield improvements and the consequences for countries' processes of structural change. The results suggest a clear role for fertilizer, modern seeds and water in boosting yields. We then test for respective empirical links between agricultural yields and economic growth, labor share in agriculture and non-agricultural value added per worker. The identification strategy includes a novel instrumental variable that exploits the unique economic geography of fertilizer production and transport costs to countries' agricultural heartlands. We estimate that a half ton increase in staple yields generates a 14 to 19 percent higher GDP per capita and a 4.6 to 5.6 percentage point lower labor share in agriculture five years later. The results suggest a strong role for agricultural productivity as a driver of structural change.

Overview

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2017.02.007

Cites

Statistics

Figures

Fig. 1 Cereal yields across developing regions, 1961–2001.
Fig. 1 Cereal yields across developing regions, 1961–2001.CC BY · PubMed Central
Fig. 2 Fertilizer use in developing regions, 1961–2001.
Fig. 2 Fertilizer use in developing regions, 1961–2001.CC BY · PubMed Central
Fig. 3 Cereal yields and fertilizer use, selected countries, 1961–2001.
Fig. 3 Cereal yields and fertilizer use, selected countries, 1961–2001.CC BY · PubMed Central
Fig. 4 Fertilizer price index (Real US$ terms, 2005=100).
Fig. 4 Fertilizer price index (Real US$ terms, 2005=100).CC BY · PubMed Central
Fig. 5 Cost-adjusted distance to major fertilizer production site.
Fig. 5 Cost-adjusted distance to major fertilizer production site.CC BY · PubMed Central
Fig. 6 Fertilizer prices in 1999 and distance to fertilizer production site.
Fig. 6 Fertilizer prices in 1999 and distance to fertilizer production site.CC BY · PubMed Central
Fig. 7 Fertilizer use in 1985 and distance to fertilizer production site.
Fig. 7 Fertilizer use in 1985 and distance to fertilizer production site.CC BY · PubMed Central
Fig. 8 Yields and relative rates of assistance to agriculture.
Fig. 8 Yields and relative rates of assistance to agriculture.CC BY · PubMed Central
Fig. 9 Coefficients on different lags of instrumented cereal yield in a specification following Table 4 Columns III–IV.
Fig. 9 Coefficients on different lags of instrumented cereal yield in a specification following Table 4 Columns III–IV.CC BY · PubMed Central
Fig. 10 Coefficient on different lags of instrumented cereal yield in a specification following Table 6 Columns VII–VIII.
Fig. 10 Coefficient on different lags of instrumented cereal yield in a specification following Table 6 Columns VII–VIII.CC BY · PubMed Central
Fig. 11 Coefficients on different lags of instrumented cereal yield in a specification following Table 7 Columns VI–VII.
Fig. 11 Coefficients on different lags of instrumented cereal yield in a specification following Table 7 Columns VI–VII.CC BY · PubMed Central

Verification

Claims the paper makes

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

The self-check needs the paper’s full text.

Citations

The citation lists haven’t been fetched yet

References 85 · Cited by 391

Research works printed but not linked: 52

  1. Amiti, 2007, Economic geography and wages, Rev. Econ. Stat., 89, 15, 10.1162/rest.89.1.15 · DOI
  2. Anderson, 2013, Political economy of public policies: insights from distortions to agricultural and food markets, J. Econ. Lit., 51, 423, 10.1257/jel.51.2.423 · DOI
  3. Arellano, 1991, Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations, Rev. Econ. Stud., 58, 277, 10.2307/2297968 · DOI · Paper page
  4. Barro, 2013, A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950–2010, J. Dev. Econ., 104, 184, 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2012.10.001 · DOI · Paper page
  5. Bates, 2013, Revisiting African agriculture: institutional change and productivity growth, J. Polit., 75, 372, 10.1017/S0022381613000078 · DOI
  6. Block, 2014, The post-independence decline and rise of crop productivity in sub-Saharan Africa: measurements and explanations, Oxf. Econ. Pap., 66, 373, 10.1093/oep/gpt010 · DOI
  7. Bond, Stephen R. 2002. Dynamic Panel Data Models: A Guide to Micro Data Methods and Practice. Tech. rep., Institute for Fiscal Studies. · DOI
  8. Bustos, 2016, Agricultural productivity and structural transformation: evidence from Brazil, Am. Econ. Rev., 106, 1320, 10.1257/aer.20131061 · DOI
  9. Carlino, Gerald, Kerr, William R., 2014. Agglomeration and Innovation. Working paper, National Bureau of Economic Research. · DOI
  10. Caselli, 1996, Reopening the convergence debate: a new look at cross-country growth empirics, J. Econ. Growth, 1, 363, 10.1007/BF00141044 · DOI
  11. Christiaensen, 2011, The (Evolving) role of agriculture in poverty reduction – an empirical perspective, J. Dev. Econ., 96, 239, 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2010.10.006 · DOI
  12. Collier, 2014, African agriculture in 50 years: smallholders in a rapidly changing world?, World Dev., 63, 92, 10.1016/j.worlddev.2013.10.001 · DOI
  13. Conley, Dalton, McCord, Gordon C., Sachs, Jeffrey D., 2007. Africa’s lagging demographic transition: evidence from exogenous impacts of malaria ecology and agricultural technology. Working paper, National Bureau of Economic Research. · DOI
  14. Conley, 2012, Plausibly exogenous, Rev. Econ. Stat., 94, 260, 10.1162/REST_a_00139 · DOI
  15. de Janvry, 2010, Agricultural growth and poverty reduction, World Bank Res. Obs., 25, 1, 10.1093/wbro/lkp015 · DOI
  16. Diao, 2010, The role of agriculture in African development, World Dev., 38, 1375, 10.1016/j.worlddev.2009.06.011 · DOI
  17. Dorward, 2011, The Malawi agricultural input subsidy programme: 2005/06 to 2008/09, Int. J. Agric. Sustain., 9, 232, 10.3763/ijas.2010.0567 · DOI
  18. Duflo, 2008, Psychology and development: theory and experimental evidence, Am. Econ. Rev.: Pap. Proc., 98, 482, 10.1257/aer.98.2.482 · DOI
  19. Duflo, 2011, Nudging farmers to use fertilizer: theory and experimental evidence from Kenya, Am. Econ. Rev., 101, 2350, 10.1257/aer.101.6.2350 · DOI · Paper page
  20. Evenson, 2003, Assessing the impact of the green revolution, 1960 to 2000, Science, 300, 758, 10.1126/science.1078710 · DOI · Paper page
  21. Francis, 2012, Trade, geography, and industry growth in U.S. manufacturing, South. Econ. J., 78, 1222, 10.4284/0038-4038-78.4.1222 · DOI
  22. Frankel, 1999, Does trade cause gowth?, Am. Econ. Rev., 89, 379, 10.1257/aer.89.3.379 · DOI
  23. Frankel, 2005, Is trade good or bad for the environment? Sorting out the causality, Rev. Econ. Stat., 87, 85, 10.1162/0034653053327577 · DOI
  24. Gollin, 2014, The agricultural productivity gap, Q. J. Econ., 129, 939, 10.1093/qje/qjt056 · DOI
  25. Gollin, 2002, The role of agriculture in development, Am. Econ. Rev.: Pap. Proc., 92, 160, 10.1257/000282802320189177 · DOI
  26. Gollin, 2007, The food problem and the evolution of international income levels, J. Monet. Econ., 54, 1230, 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2006.04.002 · DOI
  27. Hansen, 2002, Malthus to Solow, Am. Econ. Rev., 92, 1205, 10.1257/00028280260344731 · DOI
  28. Hayami, 1970, Productivity differences among countries, Am. Econ. Rev., 60, 895
  29. Jerven, 2010, Random growth in Africa? Lessons from an evaluation of the growth evidence on Botswana, Kenya, Tanzania and Zambia, 1965–1995, J. Dev. Stud., 46, 274, 10.1080/00220380903370161 · DOI
  30. Johnston, 1961, The role of agriculture in economic development, Am. Econ. Rev., 51, 137
  31. Lagakos, 2013, Selection, agriculture, and cross-country productivity diffferences, Am. Econ. Rev., 103, 948, 10.1257/aer.103.2.948 · DOI
  32. Laitner, 2000, Structural change and economic growth, Rev. Econ. Stud., 67, 545, 10.1111/1467-937X.00143 · DOI
  33. Lewis, 1954, Economic development with unlimited supplies of labour, Manch. Sch., 22, 139, 10.1111/j.1467-9957.1954.tb00021.x · DOI
  34. Limão, 2001, Infrastructure, geographic disadvantage, transport costs, and trade, World Bank Econ. Rev., 15, 451, 10.1093/wber/15.3.451 · DOI
  35. Matsuyama, 1992, Agricultural productivity, comparative advantage, and economic growth, J. Econ. Theory, 58, 317, 10.1016/0022-0531(92)90057-O · DOI
  36. McArthur, John W. 2013. Good Things Grow in Scaled Packages: Africa’s Agricultural Challenge in Historical Context. Working paper, Africa Growth Initiative, Brookings Institution. · DOI
  37. McArthur, John W., Sachs, Jeffrey D., forthcoming. Agriculture, Aid and Economic Growth in Africa. World Bank Economic Review.
  38. McMillan, Margaret S., Harttgen, Kenneth, 2014. What is Driving the ‘African Growth Miracle'? Working paper, National Bureau of Economic Research. · DOI
  39. McMillan, Margaret S., Rodrik, Dani, 2011. Globalization, Structural Change and Productivity Growth. Working paper, National Bureau of Economic Research. · DOI · Paper page
  40. Monfreda, 2008, Farming the planet 2: geographic distribution of crop areas, yields, physiological types, and net primary production in the year 2000, Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles, 22, 1, 10.1029/2007GB002947 · DOI · Paper page
  41. Murgai, 2001, The Green Revolution and the productivity paradox: evidence from the Indian Punjab, Agric. Econ., 25, 199, 10.1111/j.1574-0862.2001.tb00200.x · DOI
  42. Pan, 2012, Who is vouching for the input voucher? Decentralized targeting and elite capture in Tanzania, World Dev., 40, 1619, 10.1016/j.worlddev.2012.04.012 · DOI
  43. Pingali, 2012, Green revolution: impacts, limits, and the path ahead, PNAS, 109, 12302, 10.1073/pnas.0912953109 · DOI
  44. Ravallion, 2007, China's (uneven) progress against poverty, J. Dev. Econ., 82, 1, 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2005.07.003 · DOI
  45. Redding, 2004, Economic geography and international inequality, J. Int. Econ., 62, 53, 10.1016/j.jinteco.2003.07.001 · DOI
  46. Restuccia, 2008, Agriculture and aggregate productivity: a quantitative cross-country analysis, J. Monet. Econ., 55, 234, 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2007.11.006 · DOI
  47. Rodrik, 2013, Unconditional convergence in manufacturing, Q. J. Econ., 128, 165, 10.1093/qje/qjs047 · DOI
  48. Sachs, Jeffrey D., McArthur, John W., Schmidt-Traub, Guido, Kruk, Margaret, Bahadur, Chandrika, Faye, Michael, McCord, Gordon C., 2004. Ending Africa’s poverty trap. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (I):117–240. · DOI
  49. Staiger, 1997, Instrumental variables with weak instruments, Econ.: J. Econ. Soc., 65, 557, 10.2307/2171753 · DOI · Paper page
  50. Strulik, 2008, Population, food, and knowledge: a simple unified growth theory, J. Econ. Growth, 13, 195, 10.1007/s10887-008-9033-7 · DOI
  51. Werker, 2009, How is Foreign Aid Spent? Evidence from a natural experiment, Am. Econ. J.: Macroecon., 1, 225
  52. World Bank, 2013. World Development Indicators 2013. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. · DOI

Metadata

Authors
McArthur, J. W., & McCord, G. C.
Affiliations
  • Brookings Institution (US)
  • University of California San Diego (US)
Corresponding author
McCord, Gordon C.
ORCID
Venue
Journal of Development Economics
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Published
2017-07
Volume
127
Pages
133-152
ISSN
0304-3878 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1016/j.jdeveco.2017.02.007
PMC
PMC5726111
OpenAlex
W3124982061
Cited by
391
References
85
Citations by year
2026: 37 · 2025: 47 · 2024: 61 · 2023: 52 · 2022: 47 · 2021: 45 · 2020: 58 · 2019: 18 · 2018: 14 · 2017: 9
FWCI
48.73
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Journal of Development Economics (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • SSRN Electronic Journal (acceptedVersion)
  • Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Funders
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP44755 and OPP1083277)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic Growth and Productivity
  • Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › General Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Agricultural Economics and Practices
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Agricultural economics and policies
Keywords
agricultural inputs, fertilizers, irrigation, cereal yield, agricultural productivity, economic growth, structural change, instrumental variables, GDP per capita

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review

How to cite

Cite CoChat for the checks on this page, and the paper for its own findings.

This page
CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Fertilizing growth: Agricultural inputs and their effects in economic development. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2017.02.007
The paper
McArthur, J. W., & McCord, G. C. (2017). Fertilizing growth: Agricultural inputs and their effects in economic development. Journal of Development Economics. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2017.02.007