The Role of Firm Low-Carbon Electricity Resources in Deep Decarbonization of Power Generation
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Summary We investigate the role of firm low-carbon resources in decarbonizing power generation in combination with variable renewable resources, battery energy storage, demand flexibility, and long-distance transmission. We evaluate nearly 1,000 cases covering varying CO2 limits, technological uncertainties, and geographic differences in demand and renewable resource potential. Availability of firm low-carbon technologies, including nuclear, natural gas with carbon capture and sequestration, and bioenergy, reduces electricity costs by 10%–62% across fully decarbonized cases. Below 50 gCO2/kWh, these resources lower costs in the vast majority of cases. Additionally, as emissions limits decrease, installed capacity of several resources changes non-monotonically. This underscores the need to evaluate near-term policy and investment decisions based on contributions to long-term decarbonization rather than interim goals. Installed capacity for all resources is also strongly affected by uncertain technology parameters. This emphasizes the importance of a broad research portfolio and flexible policy support that expands rather than constrains future options.
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Future marginal abatement costs are intrinsically uncertain, and there is evidence that the marginal abatement cost curve may be highly convex.
“Although future marginal abatement costs are intrinsically uncertain25, there is evidence that the marginal abatement cost curve may be (highly) convex34.”
From COVID-19, Green Deal and recovery plan permanently change emissions and prices in EU ETS Phase IV (2022) · cites this paper as [34]
Citation 34 is attached to the claim that the marginal abatement cost curve may be highly convex; the uncertainty claim is separately cited to reference 25. The passages retrieved from our copy contain only reference links, with no discussion of marginal abatement costs or curve shape (searched: “marginal abatement cost” and “convex,” including paraphrases). They cannot verify the claim. (LLM, conf=0.70)
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“− 20 Sepulveda et al. 18 show that achieving deep decarbonization without firm low-carbon capacity appears highly challenging from an economic viewpoint.”
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- Authors
- Sepulveda, N. A., Jenkins, J. D., de Sisternes, F. J., & Lester, R. K.
- Affiliations
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology (US)
- Corresponding author
- Sepulveda, Nestor A.
- Lester, Richard K.
- Venue
- Joule
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2018-11
- Volume
- 2
- Issue
- 11
- Pages
- 2403-2420
- ISSN
- 2542-4351 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2889797253
- Semantic Scholar
- 574594c8bdce53a5c5b1a4ed513e8e1c5ba484d6
- Cited by
- 592
- References
- 42
- Citations by year
- 2026: 95 · 2025: 89 · 2024: 74 · 2023: 85 · 2022: 96 · 2021: 85 · 2020: 45 · 2019: 19 · 2018: 4
- FWCI
- 14.64
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Joule (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- Chilean Navy
- MIT
- Martin Family Society of Fellows
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Electrical and Electronic Engineering › Integrated Energy Systems Optimization
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Electrical and Electronic Engineering › Electric Power System Optimization
- Physical Sciences › Energy › Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment › Renewable energy and sustainable power systems
- Keywords
- variable renewable energy, battery energy storage, demand-side flexibility, long-distance transmission, nuclear energy, carbon capture and storage, bioenergy, electricity cost, technological uncertainty, installed capacity, energy policy
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