Shortest path or anchor-based route choice: a large-scale empirical analysis of minicab routing in London
Open accessAbstract
Understanding and modelling route choice behaviour is central to predicting the formation and propagation of urban road congestion. Yet within conventional literature disagreements persist around the nature of route choice behaviour, and how it should be modelled. In this paper, both the shortest path and anchor-based perspectives on route choice behaviour are explored through an empirical analysis of nearly 700,000 minicab routes across London, United Kingdom. In the first set of analyses, the degree of similarity between observed routes and possible shortest paths is established. Shortest paths demonstrate poor performance in predicting both observed route choice and characteristics. The second stage of analysis explores the influence of specific urban features, named anchors, in route choice. These analyses show that certain features attract more route choices than would be expected were individuals choosing route based on cost minimisation alone. Instead, the results indicate that major urban features form the basis of route choice planning – being selected disproportionately more often, and causing asymmetry in route choice volumes by direction of travel. At a finer scale, decisions made at minor road features are furthermore demonstrated to influence routing patterns. The results indicate a need to revisit the basis of how routes are modelled, shifting from the shortest path perspective to a mechanism structured around urban features. In concluding, the main trends are synthesised within an initial framework for route choice modelling, and presents potential extensions of this research.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
A city street network is transformed into a network of lines using its topological properties.
“First, a city street network is transformed into a network of lines using its topological properties 34,[173][174][175] .”
From From cognitive maps to spatial schemas (2023) · cites this paper as [173]
Cites
Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979) · Econometrica · doi:10.2307/1914185 · Cited by 48,524 · see citing works
Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk
Kahneman, D. J., & Tversky, A. (1988) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511609220.014 · Cited by 32,700 · see citing works
A note on two problems in connexion with graphs
Dijkstra, E. (1959) · Numerische Mathematik · doi:10.1007/bf01386390 · Cited by 24,351 · see citing works
Local Indicators of Spatial Association—LISA
Anselin, L. (2010) · Geographical Analysis · doi:10.1111/j.1538-4632.1995.tb00338.x · Cited by 12,925 · see citing works
(1978) · UA Campus Repository (The University of Arizona) · Cited by 8,010 · see citing works
ON A CLASS OF SKEW DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS
Simon, H. A. (1955) · Biometrika · doi:10.1093/biomet/42.3-4.425 · Cited by 2,707 · see citing works
The Hippocampus as a Cognitive Map
Ranck, J. B. (1979) · American Journal of Psychiatry · doi:10.1176/ajp.136.10.1353 · Cited by 2,373 · see citing works
Some Theoretical Aspects of Road Traffic Research
Wardrop, J. G. (1952) · Cited by 2,325 · see citing works
Zipf's Law for Cities: An Explanation
Gabaix, X. (1999) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.1162/003355399556133 · Cited by 2,073 · see citing works
The Development of Spatial Representations of Large-Scale Environments
Siegel, A. W., & White, S. H. (1975) · Advances in Child Development and Behavior · doi:10.1016/s0065-2407(08)60007-5 · Cited by 1,830 · see citing works
On Stochastic Models of Traffic Assignment
Daganzo, C. F., & Sheffi, Y. (1977) · Transportation Science · doi:10.1287/trsc.11.3.253 · Cited by 938 · see citing works
Kuipers, B. J. (1978) · Cognitive Science · doi:10.1207/s15516709cog0202_3 · Cited by 772 · see citing works
Network and Psychological Effects in Urban Movement
Hillier, B., & Iida, S. (2005) · Lecture notes in computer science · doi:10.1007/11556114_30 · Cited by 657 · see citing works
Evidence of hierarchies in cognitive maps
Hirtle, S. C., & Jonides, J. (1985) · Memory & Cognition · doi:10.3758/bf03197683 · Cited by 655 · see citing works
A Model and an Algorithm for the Dynamic Traffic Assignment Problems
Merchant, D. K., & Nemhauser, G. L. (1978) · Transportation Science · doi:10.1287/trsc.12.3.183 · Cited by 638 · see citing works
Winter, S., Kulik, L., Kuipers, B., & Duckham, M. (2007) · Lecture notes in computer science · doi:10.1007/978-3-540-74788-8 · Cited by 554 · see citing works
Exploring the anchor-point hypothesis of spatial cognition
Couclelis, H., Golledge, R. G., Gale, N., & Tobler, W. (1987) · Journal of Environmental Psychology · doi:10.1016/s0272-4944(87)80020-8 · Cited by 401 · see citing works
A Random Regret-Minimization model of travel choice
Chorus, C. G., Arentze, T., & Timmermans, H. J. P. (2007) · Transportation Research Part B Methodological · doi:10.1016/j.trb.2007.05.004 · Cited by 364 · see citing works
Dynamics of commuting decision behaviour under advanced traveller information systems
Mahmassani, H. S., & Liu, Y.-H. (1999) · Transportation Research Part C Emerging Technologies · doi:10.1016/s0968-090x(99)00014-5 · Cited by 314 · see citing works
NETWORK KNOWLEDGE AND ROUTE CHOICE
Ramming, M. S. (2002) · DSpace@MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) · Cited by 313 · see citing works
Navigation and mapping in large-scale space
Kuipers, B. J. (1988) · doi:10.1609/aimag.v9i2.674 · Cited by 310 · see citing works
Which road do I take? A learning-based model of route-choice behavior with real-time information
Ben-Elia, E., & Shiftan, Y. (2010) · Transportation Research Part A Policy and Practice · doi:10.1016/j.tra.2010.01.007 · Cited by 256 · see citing works
Evaluation of choice set generation algorithms for route choice models
Bekhor, S., Ben-Akiva, M. E., & Ramming, M. S. (2006) · Annals of Operations Research · doi:10.1007/s10479-006-0009-8 · Cited by 256 · see citing works
Adaptive route choices in risky traffic networks: A prospect theory approach
Gao, S., Frejinger, E., & Ben-Akiva, M. E. (2009) · Transportation Research Part C Emerging Technologies · doi:10.1016/j.trc.2009.08.001 · Cited by 238 · see citing works
Theoretical Foundations of Travel Choice Modeling
Gärling, T., Laitila, T., & Westin, K. (1998) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-008043062-1/50002-6 · Cited by 228 · see citing works
Prototypes, Location, and Associative Networks (PLAN): Towards a Unified Theory of Cognitive Mapping
Chown, E., Kaplan, S., & Kortenkamp, D. (1995) · Cognitive Science · doi:10.1016/0364-0213(95)90003-9 · Cited by 219 · see citing works
“Simplest” Paths: Automated Route Selection for Navigation
Duckham, M., & Kulik, L. (2003) · Lecture notes in computer science · doi:10.1007/978-3-540-39923-0_12 · Cited by 218 · see citing works
Spatial representations, a wayfinding perspective
Passini, R. (1984) · Journal of Environmental Psychology · doi:10.1016/s0272-4944(84)80031-6 · Cited by 218 · see citing works
'Fine-to-Coarse' Route Planning and Navigation in Regionalized Environments
Wiener, J. M., & Mallot, H. A. (2003) · Spatial Cognition & Computation · doi:10.1207/s15427633scc0304_5 · Cited by 197 · see citing works
A conceptual model and empirical analysis of children's acquisition of spatial knowledge
Golledge, R. G., Smith, T. R., Pellegrino, J. W., Doherty, S., & Marshall, S. P. (1985) · Journal of Environmental Psychology · doi:10.1016/s0272-4944(85)80014-1 · Cited by 187 · see citing works
On Modelling Route Choice Sets in Transportation Networks: A Synthesis
Bovy, P. H. L. (2008) · Transport Reviews · doi:10.1080/01441640802078673 · Cited by 182 · see citing works
Comprehending the Urban Environment: Theory and Practice
Golledge, R. G., & Spector, A. N. (1978) · Geographical Analysis · doi:10.1111/j.1538-4632.1978.tb00667.x · Cited by 170 · see citing works
Degradation in Spatial Knowledge Acquisition When Using Automatic Navigation Systems
Parush, A., Ahuvia, S., & Erev, I. (2007) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-540-74788-8_15 · Cited by 157 · see citing works
Applying Branch-and-Bound Technique to Route Choice Set Generation
Prato, C. G., & Bekhor, S. (2006) · Transportation Research Record Journal of the Transportation Research Board · doi:10.3141/1985-03 · Cited by 140 · see citing works
Latent variables and route choice behavior
Prato, C. G., Bekhor, S., & Pronello, C. (2011) · Transportation · doi:10.1007/s11116-011-9344-y · Cited by 128 · see citing works
Risk, uncertainty and discrete choice models
de Palma, A., Ben-Akiva, M. E., Brownstone, D. M., Holt, C. A., Magnac, T., McFadden, D. L., Moffatt, P. G., Picard, N., Train, K. E., Wakker, P. P., et al. (2008) · Marketing Letters · doi:10.1007/s11002-008-9047-0 · Cited by 126 · see citing works
A model of route perception in urban road networks
Cascetta, E., Russo, F., Viola, F. A., et al. (2002) · Transportation Research Part B Methodological · doi:10.1016/s0191-2615(00)00041-2 · Cited by 116 · see citing works
Prototypes, Location, and Associative Networks (PLAN): Towards a Unified Theory of Cognitive Mapping
Chown, E., Kaplan, S., & Kortenkamp, D. (1995) · Cognitive Science · doi:10.1207/s15516709cog1901_1 · Cited by 116 · see citing works
Navigator: A psychologically based model of environmental learning through navigation
Gopal, S., Klatzky, R. L., & Smith, T. R. (1989) · Journal of Environmental Psychology · doi:10.1016/s0272-4944(89)80012-x · Cited by 107 · see citing works
Cognitive Maps and Urban Travel
Golledge, R. G., & Gärling, T. (2004) · Emerald Group Publishing Limited eBooks · doi:10.1108/9781615832538-028 · Cited by 97 · see citing works
Experiential hierarchies of streets
Tomko, M., Winter, S., & Claramunt, C. (2007) · Computers Environment and Urban Systems · doi:10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2007.03.003 · Cited by 91 · see citing works
Identification of Parameters for a Prospect Theory Model for Travel Choice Analysis
Avineri, E., & Bovy, P. H. L. (2008) · Transportation Research Record Journal of the Transportation Research Board · doi:10.3141/2082-17 · Cited by 88 · see citing works
Wiener, J. M., Ehbauer, N. N., & Mallot, H. A. (2008) · Psychological Research · doi:10.1007/s00426-008-0181-3 · Cited by 71 · see citing works
Spatial Behavior in Transportation Modeling and Planning
Golledge, R. G., & rling, T. G. (2002) · New directions in civil engineering · doi:10.1201/9781420042283.ch3 · Cited by 66 · see citing works
Kaplan, S., & Prato, C. G. (2011) · Transportation Research Part F Traffic Psychology and Behaviour · doi:10.1016/j.trf.2011.11.001 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
Ben-Elia, E., Ishaq, R., & Shiftan, Y. (2012) · Transportation · doi:10.1007/s11116-012-9426-5 · Cited by 42 · see citing works
Distance cognition by taxi drivers and the general public
Péruch, P., Giraudo, M.-D., & Gärling, T. (1989) · Journal of Environmental Psychology · doi:10.1016/s0272-4944(89)80037-4 · Cited by 41 · see citing works
Sun, Z., Arentze, T., & Timmermans, H. J. P. (2012) · Transportation Research Part C Emerging Technologies · doi:10.1016/j.trc.2012.04.003 · Cited by 36 · see citing works
Feng, T., Arentze, T., & Timmermans, H. J. P. (2013) · European journal of transport and infrastructure research · doi:10.18757/ejtir.2013.13.4.3004 · Cited by 36 · see citing works
Route Choice under the Microscope
Senk, P. (2010) · Transportation Research Record Journal of the Transportation Research Board · doi:10.3141/2156-07 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
The opportunities and threats of travel information: a behavioural perspective
Ben-Elia, E., & Avineri, E. (2015) · Edward Elgar Publishing eBooks · doi:10.4337/9781783471294.00010 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Cited by
Sorted by citations
From cognitive maps to spatial schemas
Farzanfar, D., Spiers, H. J., Moscovitch, M., & Rosenbaum, R. S. (2023) · Nature Reviews Neuroscience · doi:10.1038/s41583-022-00655-9 · Cited by 115 · see citing works
Spatiotemporal variation in travel regularity through transit user profiling
Manley, E., Zhong, C., & Batty, M. (2018) · Transportation · doi:10.1007/s11116-016-9747-x · Cited by 82 · see citing works
Self-citationA heuristic model of bounded route choice in urban areas
Manley, E. J., Orr, S. W., & Cheng, T. (2015) · Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies · doi:10.1016/j.trc.2015.03.020 · Cited by 54 · see citing works
Self-citation
- Authors
- Manley, E. J., Addison, J. D., & Cheng, T.
- Affiliations
- University College London (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Manley, E.J.
- Venue
- Journal of Transport Geography
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2015-02
- Volume
- 43
- Pages
- 123-139
- ISSN
- 0966-6923 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2067114702
- Cited by
- 76
- References
- 51
- Citations by year
- 2026: 7 · 2025: 3 · 2024: 6 · 2023: 7 · 2022: 5 · 2021: 9 · 2020: 7 · 2019: 4 · 2018: 9 · 2017: 4 · 2016: 9 · 2015: 5 · 2013: 1
- FWCI
- 16.94
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Locations
- Journal of Transport Geography (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EP/G023212/1)
- Transport for London
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Transportation › Transportation Planning and Optimization
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Automotive Engineering › Transportation and Mobility Innovations
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Building and Construction › Urban and Freight Transport Logistics
- Keywords
- route choice, shortest path, urban traffic congestion, urban characteristics, cost minimization, London
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
