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Maxent modeling for predicting the potential geographical distribution of two peony species under climate change

Zhang, Keliang, Yao, Linjun, Meng, Jiasong, Tao, Jun·2018·Science of The Total Environment

Abstract

Paeonia (Paeoniaceae), an economically important plant genus, includes many popular ornamentals and medicinal plant species used in traditional Chinese medicine. Little is known about the properties of the habitat distribution and the important eco-environmental factors shaping the suitability. Based on high-resolution environmental data for current and future climate scenarios, we modeled the present and future suitable habitat for P. delavayi and P. rockii by Maxent, evaluated the importance of environmental factors in shaping their distribution, and identified distribution shifts under climate change scenarios. The results showed that the moderate and high suitable areas for P. delavayi and P. rockii encompassed ca. 4.46×105km2 and 1.89×105km2, respectively. Temperature seasonality and isothermality were identified as the most critical factors shaping P. delavayi distribution, and UVB-4 and annual precipitation were identified as the most critical for shaping P. rockii distribution. Under the scenario with a low concentration of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP2.6), the range of both species increased as global warming intensified; however, under the scenario with higher concentrations of emissions (RCP8.5), the suitable habitat range of P. delavayi decreased while P. rockii increased. Overall, our prediction showed that a shift in distribution of suitable habitat to higher elevations would gradually become more significant. The information gained from this study should provide a useful reference for implementing long-term conservation and management strategies for these species.

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Metadata

Authors
Zhang, K., Yao, L., Meng, J., & Tao, J.
Venue
Science of The Total Environment
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Published
2018-09
Volume
634
Pages
1326-1334
ISSN
0048-9697 (ISSN-L)
OpenAlex
W2802275696
Cited by
489
References
32
FWCI
27.78
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed

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CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Maxent modeling for predicting the potential geographical distribution of two peony species under climate change. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.04.112
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Zhang, K., Yao, L., Meng, J., & Tao, J. (2018). Maxent modeling for predicting the potential geographical distribution of two peony species under climate change. Science of The Total Environment. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.04.112

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