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Cited by 130Labor market dynamics and wage inequalityHigher Education and EmployabilityEmployer Branding and e-HRM

Skills or degree? The rise of skill-based hiring for AI and green jobs

Open access
Bone, Matthew, González Ehlinger, Eugenia, Stephany, Fabian·2025·Technological Forecasting and Social Change
DOI 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124042
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Abstract

Emerging professions in fields like Artificial Intelligence (AI) and sustainability (green jobs) are experiencing labour shortages as industry demand outpaces labour supply. In this context, our study aims to understand whether employers have begun focusing more on individual skills rather than formal qualifications in their recruitment processes. We analysed a large time-series dataset of approximately eleven million online job vacancies in the UK from 2018 to mid-2024, drawing on diverse literature on technological change and labour market signalling. Our findings provide evidence that employers have initiated “skill-based hiring” for AI roles, adopting more flexible hiring practices to expand the available talent pool. From 2018 to 2023, demand for AI roles grew by 21 % as a proportion of all postings (and accelerated into 2024). Simultaneously, mentions of university education requirements for AI roles declined by 15 %. Our regression analysis shows that university degrees have a significantly lower wage premium for both AI and green roles. In contrast, AI skills command a wage premium of 23 %, exceeding the value of degrees up until the PhD-level (33 %). In occupations with high demand for AI skills, the premium for skills is high, and the reward for degrees is relatively low. We recommend leveraging alternative skill-building formats such as apprenticeships , on-the-job training, MOOCs , vocational education and training, micro-certificates, and online bootcamps to fully utilise human capital and address talent shortages.

Verified 2026-11-06 · 1 reference not checked yet

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

Using ~11 million UK online job vacancies (2018–mid-2024), the paper finds employers increasingly use skill-based hiring for AI roles, with AI skills carrying a 23% wage premium and degree requirements declining 15%, while green roles show rising demand but weaker skill premia. It concludes AI hiring is shifting from degrees to skills, but green hiring has not yet shown the same shift.

Key findings

  • AI postings grew by 21% as a proportion of all postings from 2018–2023 and accelerated into 2024; green postings grew by 67%. Mentions of university education requirements for AI roles declined by 15% from 2018–2023.
  • AI skills command a wage premium of 23%, second only to a PhD (33%) and higher than a master’s degree (13%); green skills do not exhibit a significant wage premium. For AI roles, the education premium nearly disappeared—only a slight master’s premium and no significant PhD premium—while for green roles the educational gradient flattened.
  • AI roles are more skill-intensive: average 15–16 skills per posting, versus about 10 for green roles and about 5 for the broader labour market. AI roles average around £50k, green roles trend toward £40k, and average postings remain slightly below £30k.
  • For AI skills, wage premiums increase with demand and degree premiums decrease with demand; for green skills, the relationship between demand and premium is flat.

Methods

  • Dataset: Lightcast/Burning Glass online job vacancy database covering ~11 million UK vacancies from January 2018 to June 2024, with around 80 million associated skills; advertised salary information is available for about 39% of the sample.
  • Classification: a bottom-up, skill-based approach labels a vacancy as AI-related if it contains at least one AI skill from Lightcast’s AI/ML subcategory (157 skills) and green if it contains at least one green skill from a 2019 list (259 still in the taxonomy).
  • Analysis: descriptive time series plus OLS regressions of log advertised wage on AI/green skill dummies, education dummies, experience, and fixed effects for years, 12 regions, 16 industries, and 9 occupational groups; additional occupation-by-year regressions relate skill and degree premiums to demand.

Limitations

  • Stated in the paper: online job vacancy data cannot fully reveal candidate selection; employers may consider criteria beyond postings; online vacancies miss other talent channels such as contractors or in-house development; OJVs are biased toward certain occupations, sectors, and industries; only advertised salaries are observed, not actual negotiated pay; London and business administration/support services are overrepresented, while motor trades, wholesale/retail, and elementary occupations are underrepresented.
  • Stated in the paper: salary information is available for only about 39% of the sample, though AI (31%) and green (37%) postings are as likely as other vacancies to contain wage information.
  • Evident from the text: the AI/green classification uses a threshold of at least one skill, which is broad; the green skill list was compiled in 2019 and may miss newer green skills; the regression results are associational and do not establish causality.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124042

Cites

45 of 46 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Claims the paper makes

0 of 36 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged

  • Findingreasoning

    AI salaries declined slightly from early 2022 to mid-2023.

    “However, there is a slight decline in AI salaries during the period from early 2022 to mid-2023, which corresponds with a reduction in demand due to tech sector layoffs.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Findingown data

    After 2023, demand for AI skills accelerated rapidly.

    “After 2023, we can see a rapid acceleration in the demand for AI skills, in particular.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Findingown data

    In green skills, the strongest growth is in waste management and renewable energy technologies.

    “In the domain of green skills, Panel C1 shows the strongest growth in areas like waste management and renewable energy technologies.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Findingown data

    There is consistent and increasing demand for Environmental Law and ISO 14000 series skills.

    “Panel A3 also shows there is consistent and increasing demand for Environmental Law and ISO 14000 series skills, the latter of which pertains to environmental management standards aimed at minimising negative impacts on the environment and promoting sustainability practices in industries.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Findingown data

    Growth in individual green skills generally outpaces growth in AI skills over the observation period.

    “Panel C1 further emphasises that the growth in individual green skills generally outpaces that of AI skills over this time period.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims. 62
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 21

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Green roles tend to offer higher salaries, with an upward trend reaching towards £40k by the end of the time series.

    “While the average salary for job postings remains slightly below £30k, green roles tend to offer higher salaries, with an upward trend reaching towards £40k by the end of the time series.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In occupations with high demand for AI skills, the premium for skills is high, and the reward for degrees is relatively low.

    “In occupations with high demand for AI skills, the premium for skills is high, and the reward for degrees is relatively low.”
    • Also stated in: § Introduction · plain
      “For the case of AI roles, we reveal that premia on skills are most pronounced for occupations with above-average demand for AI talent.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The wage premium for AI skills exceeds the value of degrees up until the PhD level, where the degree premium is 33%.

    “In contrast, AI skills command a wage premium of 23%, exceeding the value of degrees up until the PhD-level (33%).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingown data

    Skills related to generative adversarial networks have shown relatively stable growth.

    “Skills related to generative adversarial networks (GANs), which form the backbone of advanced AI models such as ChatGPT, have shown relatively stable growth.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    After the 2022 layoff period, demand for AI roles rebounded rapidly and steadily increased across the labour market.

    “After the 2022 layoff period, we observe a rapid rebound and steady increase in the demand for AI roles across the labour market.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    After correcting for short-term occupational trends, the short-term drop off in demand for AI roles is less dramatic but still significant.

    “This correction reveals a less dramatic but still significant short-term drop off in the demand for AI roles.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingnone given

    Green vacancies still offer competitive remunerations but have a less striking wage premium compared with other job postings.

    “In line with that, while green vacancies still offer competitive remunerations, they have a less striking wage premium compared with other job postings.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    For green roles, higher education correlates with higher wages, but salaries for roles with no degree requirement also increased noticeably.

    “Higher education correlates with higher wages, but there is also a noticeable increase in salaries for roles with no degree requirement, suggesting that growing demand in the green sector has pushed up wages across the board, even for less qualified roles.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    PhD holders earn the highest salaries across all roles, reaching around £50k by the end of the time series.

    “Panel A1 illustrates the wage premium associated with higher education across all roles, with PhD holders earning the highest salaries, reaching around £50k by the end of the time series, while job postings without degree requirements offer significantly lower wages around £25k.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Over the past four years, job postings requiring at least one AI skill increased by nearly 21% and increased by 67% for green skills.

    “Over the past four years, job postings requiring at least one AI skill have increased by nearly 21% and increased by 67% for green skills.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Both AI and green skills have become more demanded in the observation period.

    “For one, we clearly observe that both AI and green skills have become more demanded in our observation period.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Controlling for experience reveals an educational gradient for AI/ML roles, though the premiums for HNC/HND roles are still negative.

    “We also find that controlling for experience reveals an educational gradient for AI/ML roles, though the premiums for HNC/HND roles are still negative, indicating that experience is a dominant factor in determining wages for AI/ML roles.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The AI skill premium is significantly higher than the offered reward for degrees in occupations related to Associate Professionals and management jobs, while in Trades and Professional Services degrees still offer a higher reward.

    “For example, the AI skill premium is significantly higher than the offered reward for degrees in occupations related to Associate Professionals and management jobs, while in Trades and Professional Services degrees still offer a higher reward.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    For AI roles, the AI premium increases the more skill intensive a role becomes, while the return on formal degrees diminishes.

    “Here, we see that for AI roles, the AI premium clearly increases the more skill intensive a role becomes, while the return on formal degrees diminishes.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    23% of green roles and 33% of AI roles demand formal education, compared to just 12% of all other roles.

    “Panel B1 highlights the higher educational requirements for AI and green roles, with 23% of green roles and 33% of AI roles demanding formal education, compared to just 12% of all other roles.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    For AI skills, there is a clear positive relationship between skill demand and skill premium and a negative correlation between demand and degree premium.

    “For the case of AI skills, we observe a clear positive relationship between skill demand and skill premium and a negative correlation between demand and degree premium.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    For job offers outside AI and green roles, there is a clear educational gradient: significant wage premium for technical or bachelor's degrees, higher for master's, and substantially greater for PhD holders-three times higher than for master's.

    “For job offers outside of AI and green roles, Panel C1 illustrates a clear so-called educational gradient (rising premium the higher the degree).The regression results show a significant wage premium for those with technical or bachelor's degrees, an even higher premium for master's degrees, and a substantially greater premium for PhD holders-three times higher than for those with master's degrees”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    For green roles, the educational gradient appears to have flattened; roles requiring formal degrees still offer higher wages, but the difference between educational levels is not as pronounced.

    “However, for green roles, the educational gradient appears to have flattened.While roles requiring formal degrees still offer higher wages, the difference between educational levels-such as technical, bachelor's, and master's degrees-is not as pronounced.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Green roles show a higher demand for technical qualifications (HNC, HND), while AI roles demand a higher share of master's and PhD degrees.

    “Additionally, green roles show a higher demand for technical qualifications (HNC, HND), reflecting the sector's technical nature, while AI roles demand a higher share of master's and PhD degrees.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    OJVs asking for a formal degree offer wages higher than postings without higher education requirements: 8% higher for a bachelors, 13% for a masters and 35% for a PhD degree.

    “Secondly, regarding monetary rewards, our analysis revealed that OJVs asking for a formal degree offer wages higher than postings without higher education requirements -8% higher for a bachelors, 13% for a masters and 35% for a PhD degree.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    The premium for Green skills is less clear for Bachelor's and Master's degrees and becomes negative for PhDs.

    “The premium for Green skills is less clear for Bachelor's and Master's degrees and becomes negative for PhDs.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Job postings that do not require a degree hover around £25k, whereas positions requiring technical qualifications (HNC, HND), bachelor's, master's, or PhD degrees all offer salaries above £35k, with PhD roles nearing £50k towards the end of the time series.

    “Job postings that do not require a degree hover around £25k, whereas positions requiring technical qualifications (HNC, HND), bachelor's, master's, or PhD degrees all offer salaries above £35k, with PhD roles nearing £50k towards the end of the time series.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingown data

    Roughly 38.6 percent (4,187,603) of all job postings in the analysis contain wage information.

    “Roughly 38.6 percent (4,187,603) of all job postings in our analysis contain wage information.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    For both AI and green skills, the wage premium for a respective skill increases with the demand for it.

    “For both AI and green skills, our model shows that wage premium for a respective skill increases with the demand for it.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Wages are log-normal distributed and slightly right-skewed.

    “Wages are log-normal distributed and slightly right-skewed.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    AI roles offer wages on a stable level and significantly higher than any role mentioning formal education can offer on average.

    “In contrast to the premium of higher formal education across all postings (Figure 2-A1), we see that AI roles offer wages on a stable level and significantly higher than any role mentioning formal education can offer on average.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The educational wage gradient is flattened for green roles and nearly absent for AI roles.

    “However, this gradient is flattened for green roles and nearly absent for AI roles, indicating a shift in reward structures in these sectors.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning

    AI-related occupations typically require higher levels of education and a larger number of skills.

    “Moreover, AI-related occupations typically require higher levels of education and a larger number of skills, reflecting the complex nature of these roles.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    For AI roles, the wage premium for formal education has nearly disappeared; there is only a slight premium for master's degrees compared to no education, and no significant premium for PhDs.

    “The regression shows that the wage premium for formal education has nearly disappeared.There is only a slight premium for master's degrees compared to no education, and no significant premium at all for PhDs.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    For green roles, the return on skills is relatively stable and the economic reward offered for formal degrees decreases slightly.

    “For green roles, the return on skills is relatively stable and the economic reward offered for formal degrees decreases slightly.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    When controlling for experience, the educational gradient reappears slightly but remains much weaker for AI and green roles compared to other sectors.

    “When controlling for experience, as seen in the subplot of the figure, the educational gradient reappears slightly but remains much weaker for AI and green roles compared to other sectors.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    The strongest growth in skills is observed in renewable energy, waste removal, nuclear power, and machine learning technologies like generative adversarial networks.

    “The strongest growth in skills is observed in renewable energy, waste removal, nuclear power, and machine learning technologies like generative adversarial networks.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    AI skills offer a monetary reward on par with formal education requirements, exhibiting a wage premium of 23% which sits between a masters degree and PhD.

    “In addition, our regression analysis shows that AI skills offer a monetary reward on par with formal education requirements, as they exhibit a wage premium of 23% which sits between a masters degree and PhD.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    For AI roles, the beta coefficient is negative for both technical qualifications and bachelor's degrees.

    “In fact, for AI roles, the beta coefficient is negative for both technical qualifications and bachelor's degrees, indicating that AI roles that don't require a degree are typically seeking workers with more skills than these degrees offer.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    For both AI and green postings, offered wages increase with the number of respective skills required in the OJVs.

    “On the other hand, we notice that for both AI and green postings, the educational requirements (B) and the offered wages (C) increases with the number of respective skills required in the OJVs.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    For green roles, formal education is still associated with higher wages overall, but the educational gradient has flattened.

    “In the case of green roles, formal education is still associated with higher wages overall, but the educational gradient has flattened.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Skill premiums increase with, and degree premiums decrease with, demand for AI skills.

    “Nevertheless, C1 and C3 in Figure 3, support our hypothesis that skill premiums increase with, and degree premiums decrease with, demand for AI skills.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Employers are seeking AI and green skills differently, reducing degree requirements for AI roles while increasing wages for green roles.

    “Our analysis further suggests that employers are seeking AI and green skills differently, reducing degree requirements for AI roles while increasing wages for green roles.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In AI roles, the highest-paying positions tend to require a master's degree, but roles with no formal degree requirement also offer relatively high wages, comparable to those with technical, bachelor's, or PhD qualifications.

    “The highest-paying positions tend to require a master's degree, but roles with no formal degree requirement also offer relatively high wages, comparable to those with technical, bachelor's, or PhD qualifications.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Findingown data

    London is the region with the largest share of AI and Green postings.

    “This is also the region with the largest share of AI and Green postings.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    For green roles, higher education correlates with higher wages, although there is a notable increase in wages for roles without formal degree requirements.

    “Panel A3 reflects a more consistent educational gradient for green roles, where higher education correlates with higher wages, although there is also a notable increase in wages for roles without formal degree requirements.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    AI skills show a significant wage premium of 23%, second only to holding a PhD (33%) and higher than a master's degree (13%).

    “AI skills show a significant wage premium of 23%, second only to holding a PhD (33%) and higher than a master's degree (13%) (Models 3 and 4).”
    • Also stated in: § What is the premium of AI and green skills? · plain
      “For example, even when controlling for geographical, sectorial, occupational, and educational variance, AI skills exhibit a wage premium on offering wages of 23% -second only to having a PhD (33%) -and significantly higher than for a master's degree (13%).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    For both AI and green postings, educational requirements increase with the number of respective skills required in the OJVs.

    “On the other hand, we notice that for both AI and green postings, the educational requirements (B) and the offered wages (C) increases with the number of respective skills required in the OJVs.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Interpretationreasoning

    The 2022 drop in demand for AI roles stemmed from a period of tech layoffs in the UK during that year.

    “in our interpretation stemming from a period of tech layoffs in the UK during that year.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductown data

    For the UK, the database contains data on salaries advertised within these vacancies for about 39% of the sample.

    “Additionally, for the UK, the database contains data on the salaries advertised within these vacancies for about 39% of the sample.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Education and training institutions are struggling to keep pace with AI development, resulting in curricula being misaligned from industry needs.

    “Globally, education and training institutions are struggling to keep pace with AI development, resulting in curricula being misaligned from industry needs.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites UNESCO, 2022

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 motivated many governments to boost alternative energy resources such as solar and wind energy in order to reduce gas imports from Russia.

    “Similarly, Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 motivated many governments to boost alternative energy resources such as solar and wind energy in order to reduce gas imports from Russia (IEA, 2023).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites IEA, 2023

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    At higher education level, academics' focus and research differs from industry's priorities, meaning scholar research is not always pertinent or directly applicable to the needs of the economy and the private sector.

    “Additionally, at higher education level, where the UK has advanced AI programmes and a large percentage of graduates on STEM programmes, academics´focus and research also differs from industry´s priorities, meaning scholar research is not always pertinent or directly applicable to the needs of the economy and the private sector (Al-Sulaiti, Khalid & Dwivedi, Yogesh, 2024).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Al-Sulaiti, Khalid & Dwivedi, Yogesh, 2024

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Saussay et al. (2022) developed a methodology to accurately isolate low-carbon activities in online job vacancy data, producing a list of 445 low-carbon skills that can be used as low-carbon job identifiers.

    “Saussay et al. (2022) developed a methodology to accurately isolate low-carbon activities in online job vacancy data, producing a list of 445 low-carbon skills that can be used as low-carbon job identifiers.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Saussay et al. (2022)

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    The digital skills gap in the UK inflicts an economic damage of over 60 billion GBP per year on the country's GDP.

    “Approximations indicate that overall, the digital skills gap in the UK inflicts an economic damage of over 60 billion GBP per year on the country's GDP (Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport, 2022).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport, 2022

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The COVID-19 pandemic of 2020 increased the reliance on digital technologies and pressured companies across all sectors to enhance their use of technology and data at a faster pace.

    “The COVID-19 pandemic of 2020, for example, increased the reliance on digital technologies (OECD, 2023) and pressured companies across all sectors to enhance their use of technology and data at a faster pace.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites OECD, 2023

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given

    The success of the UK in the transition towards AI and green jobs will depend on the capacity of the workforce to meet the needs of employers.

    “In this context, the success of the UK in the transition towards AI and green jobs will depend on the capacity of the workforce to meet the needs of employers.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Employers are striving to adopt sustainable practices, or at least to meet legal regulations regarding environmental impact.

    “Further, they also suggest that employers are striving to adopt sustainable practices, or at least to meet the legal regulations regarding environmental impact.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationcitation

    Our findings are consistent with prior literature that shows the impact of green and AI roles in the labour market has become more evident in recent years, when specific events prompted and expedited the use of AI and the adoption of environmental policies.

    “Our findings are consistent with prior literature that shows that the impact of the green and AI roles in the labour market has become more evident in recent years, when specific events prompted and expedited the use of AI and the adoption of environmental policies.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductown data

    Some types of vacancies are heavily represented while others are less advertised.

    “Some types of vacancies are heavily represented while others are less advertised, as shown in Table A3 in the Appendix.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    In 2022, across 190 countries only 15 were developing AI curricula in schools, and the UK was not among them.

    “For instance, a survey conducted by UNESCO, found that in 2022, across 190 countries only 15 were developing AI curricula in schools, and the UK was not among them.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites UNESCO

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Both green and AI roles are more skill-intensive than average.

    “This suggests that both green and AI roles are more skill-intensive than average, underscoring the importance of a diverse skill set in these rapidly growing fields.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Interpretationreasoning

    Increasing competitiveness will trigger a global competition for human capital.

    “Furthermore, given that this is not an isolated problem and a wide range of countries are facing similar skills mismatches, we can expect the increasing competitiveness to trigger a global competition for human capital, making the issue even more urgent.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: A wide range of countries are facing similar skills mismatches.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisereasoning

    In situations where skills are relatively low in supply compared to high levels of demand, their market value increases and employers are compelled to adopt novel hiring practices to increase the talent pool.

    “Secondly, in situations where skills are relatively low in supply compared to high levels of demand, their market value increases and employers are compelled to adopt novel hiring practices to increase the talent pool.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data

    Business admin and support services are significantly more prominent in OJV in contrast to motor trades, wholesale, and retail, which are underrepresented.

    “For industries, business admin and support services are significantly more prominent in OJV in contrast to motor trades, wholesale, and retail, which is underrepresented.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Attracting and recruiting candidates based on skills rather than formal education degrees may contribute to increasing the size of the talent pool and potentially tackling skills shortages in AI and green domains.

    “Additionally, in emerging fields such as AI and the green domains, where employers are struggling to find the right talent, attracting and recruiting candidates based on skills rather than formal education degrees may contribute to increasing the size of the talent pool and potentially, tackling skills shortages.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: The demand for green and AI skills far exceeds supply, making it hard for employers to find candidates with the needed skills.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data

    We only observe offered salaries by the nature of the data; later negotiated salaries for the position advertised might differ from the wage levels considered.

    “However, it is worth noticing, as a limitation of this work, that we only observe offered salaries by the nature of the data.This means that the later negotiated salaries for the position advertised might differ from the wage levels considered in our analysis.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    By requesting a specific level of education, employers may limit the number of candidates and overlook individuals who have developed skills through alternative paths.

    “By requesting a specific level of education, employers may limit the number of candidates and overlook individuals who have developed skills through alternative paths such as on-the-job learning, online courses and social interactions.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: Employers place weight on university degrees.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    The demand for skills in AI has shifted away from formal educational qualifications, with a greater emphasis on practical skills and experience.

    “This suggests that the demand for skills in AI has shifted away from formal educational qualifications, with a greater emphasis on practical skills and experience.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductown data

    The regression model controls for potential confounders such as industry type, occupational sector, or regional disparities.

    “To control for potential confounders, such as industry type, occupational sector, or regional disparities, we run a regression model to explain wage premia for formal education across the AI and green roles:”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductown data

    London is slightly overrepresented in the OJV data.

    “However, there are some notable exceptions: The capital, London, is slightly overrepresented in our data.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    AI may be enabling individuals without advanced degrees to perform complex tasks, thereby reducing the wage premium traditionally associated with higher education.

    “This indicates that AI may be enabling individuals without advanced degrees to perform complex tasks, thereby reducing the wage premium traditionally associated with higher education.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    As technology becomes pervasive across industries, developed economies are increasingly requesting more highly skilled workers, while reducing the number of low skilled and routine jobs.

    “Many of these studies have found that as technology becomes pervasive across industries, developed economies are increasingly requesting more highly skilled workers, while reducing the number of low skilled and routine jobs (Autor, 2014, Goos et al., 2014).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Autor, 2014

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Goos et al., 2014 source

      Queued — the background check reaches it, usually within a day.

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductnone given

    OJV data is mostly representative of the UK labour force regarding geography, industries, and occupations.

    “We see that OJV data is mostly representative of the UK labour force regarding geography, industries, and occupations.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    The minimum level of education required within AI jobs wields diminished influence over the wage premium, supporting the idea that firms are applying skills-based hiring practices for AI jobs.

    “The study shows that the minimum level of education required within AI jobs wields diminished influence over the wage premium, which supports the idea that firms are applying skills-based hiring practices within their recruitment processes for AI jobs.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    By eliminating the minimum level of education from job postings, employers increase the talent pool and may be able to find more suitable candidates.

    “By eliminating the minimum level of education from job postings, employers increase the talent pool and may be able to find more suitable candidates.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    A skills-based hiring approach can increase the number of potential candidates, the variety of workers' social backgrounds and add diverse insights to the workforce.

    “A skills-based hiring approach can increase the number of potential candidates, the variety of workers' social backgrounds and add diverse insights to the workforce.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: The demand for green and AI skills far exceeds supply, making it hard for employers to find candidates with the needed skills.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Higher educational credentials have tended to be positively associated with employment rates and earning advantages.

    “Thus, higher educational credentials have tended to be positively associated with employment rates and earning advantages (Mincer, 1974, Carbonaro, 2007;OECD, 2022).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Mincer, 1974

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Carbonaro, 2007 source
    • cites OECD, 2022

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    Employers looking for AI skills are already applying skill-based hiring while this doesn't seem to be the case for Green skills.

    “This indicates that employers looking for AI skills are already applying skill-based hiring while this doesn't seem to be the case for Green skills.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Over 70% of workers learn through their job and interactions with others, compared to only 8% who are enrolled in formal education programmes.

    “Data indicates that over 70% of workers learn through their job and interactions with others, compared to only 8% who are enrolled in formal education programmes (OECD, 2020).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites OECD, 2020

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductnone given

    OJVs show more postings in professional occupations and less than average job offers for elementary occupations.

    “Lastly, OJVs show more postings in professional occupations and less than average job offers for elementary occupations.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
76 of 76

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    AI and green skills contribute positively to firms' profitability and are progressively being demanded by employers while remaining relatively scarce in supply.

    “assuming that AI and green skills contribute positively to firms' profitability and are progressively being demanded by employers while remaining relatively scarce in supply, we anticipate an increase in their market value, leading to wage premium offerings and a limited focus on candidates' qualifications for AI and green jobs as well as an adoption of skills-based hiring for jobs in these”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Posted salaries serve as an indicator of companies' willingness to compensate for specific skill sets demanded in job postings.

    “Although these posted salaries may not reflect the accurate remuneration received by hired employees, they serve as an indicator of the companies' willingness to compensate for specific skill sets demanded in the job postings.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    A wide range of countries are facing similar skills mismatches.

    “Furthermore, given that this is not an isolated problem and a wide range of countries are facing similar skills mismatches, we can expect the increasing competitiveness to trigger a global competition for human capital, making the issue even more urgent.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Job vacancy postings accurately reflect employers' demand for skills and their hiring practices.

    “By analysing job vacancies with the lists of skills, we found that employers are looking for a wide variety of skills related to the development and implementation of AI.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The UK job vacancy data is representative of the UK labour market.

    “Our analysis of eleven million OJVs reveals a rising demand for AI and green skills in the UK, reflecting the continuous efforts of firms to adopt AI -and the AI-human complementarity-and meet environmental sustainability targets.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The demand for green and AI skills far exceeds supply, making it hard for employers to find candidates with the needed skills.

    “As mentioned above, the literature suggests that the demand for green and AI skills is far exceeding supply, making it hard for employers to find candidates with the skills needed to navigate societal and technological change.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Employers place weight on university degrees.

    “Given the weight placed by employers on university degrees, a good avenue for doing so might be through higher education.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Education and industry will keep evolving at uneven paces.

    “Given that education and industry will keep evolving at uneven paces, employers should progressively focus on candidates' skills rather than on their formal qualifications.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Employers will not immediately respond to a tight labour market by increasing offered wages.

    “We used a two-year lag variable as employers will not immediately respond to a tight labour market by increasing offered wages”
9 of 9

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

  • Conflicting conclusions about green-skill demand and wage premiums

    Major

    The Table 2 description says the green-skill wage premium increases with demand. The summary instead says the relationship between green-skill demand and the premium is flat.

  • Green-skill wage premium described as both significant and insignificant

    Major

    The paper says vacancies requiring AI and green skills have significant wage premiums, but its summary of Table 1 says green skills do not have a significant wage premium.

2 of 2

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

1 of the 47 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.

Research works printed but not linked: 4

  1. Cambridge Industrial Innovation Policy
  2. Fuller, 2022, Skills-based hiring is on the rise, Harv. Bus. Rev., 11, 1
  3. Illanes, 2018, 8(1), 1
  4. Lancaster, V. A., Mahoney-Nair, D., and Ratcliff, N. (2021) Review of burning glass job-ad data. Proceedings of the biocomplexity institute 2021-013, biocomplexity institute.

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Related

Authors
Bone, M., González Ehlinger, E., & Stephany, F.
Affiliations
  • University of Oxford (GB)
  • Bruegel (BE)
Corresponding author
Stephany, Fabian
ORCID
Stephany, Fabian
Venue
Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Published
2025-05
Volume
214
Pages
124042
ISSN
0040-1625 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124042
OpenAlex
W4407964516
Cited by
130
References
47
Citations by year
2026: 96 · 2025: 32 · 2024: 2
FWCI
92.06
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Technological Forecasting and Social Change (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • arXiv (Cornell University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • arXiv (Cornell University) (cc-by)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Labor market dynamics and wage inequality
  • Social Sciences › Education › Higher Education and Employability
  • Social Sciences › Business, Management and Accounting › Organizational Behavior and Human Resource Management › Employer Branding and e-HRM
Keywords
degree requirements, green jobs, labor shortage, job vacancies, wage premium, emerging professions, human capital, vocational education and training, apprenticeship, MOOCs, UK labour market

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-11-06.

Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-11-06.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

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