Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation
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In this essay, I begin by identifying the reasons that automation has not wiped out a majority of jobs over the decades and centuries. Automation does indeed substitute for labor—as it is typically intended to do. However, automation also complements labor, raises output in ways that leads to higher demand for labor, and interacts with adjustments in labor supply. Journalists and even expert commentators tend to overstate the extent of machine substitution for human labor and ignore the strong complementarities between automation and labor that increase productivity, raise earnings, and augment demand for labor. Changes in technology do alter the types of jobs available and what those jobs pay. In the last few decades, one noticeable change has been a “polarization” of the labor market, in which wage gains went disproportionately to those at the top and at the bottom of the income and skill distribution, not to those in the middle; however, I also argue, this polarization and is unlikely to continue very far into future. The final section of this paper reflects on how recent and future advances in artificial intelligence and robotics should shape our thinking about the likely trajectory of occupational change and employment growth. I argue that the interplay between machine and human comparative advantage allows computers to substitute for workers in performing routine, codifiable tasks while amplifying the comparative advantage of workers in supplying problem-solving skills, adaptability, and creativity.
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With each wave of automation, human effort has not been removed, but rather redirected.
“With each wave, however, human effort has not been removed, but rather redirected.”
From The views of health guideline developers on the use of automation in health evidence synthesis (2021) · cites this paper as [15]
From the late nineteenth century onwards, there have been repeated waves of automation of production and consequent population-level job panic.
“From the late nineteenth century onwards, there have been repeated waves of automation of production and consequent population-level job panic [15].”
From The views of health guideline developers on the use of automation in health evidence synthesis (2021) · cites this paper as [15]
In some cases, job opportunities have expanded rather than contracted as a by-product of widespread automation.
“In some cases, job opportunities have expanded rather than contracted as a by-product of widespread automation.”
From The views of health guideline developers on the use of automation in health evidence synthesis (2021) · cites this paper as [15]
Even though present-day machines can conceive messages perceived as more empathic than messages conceived by humans, such messages may be perceived differently once recipients become aware of their artificial origin.
“For instance, even though present-day machines can conceive messages perceived as more empathic than messages conceived by humans 170,171 , such messages may be perceived differently once recipients become aware of their artificial origin.”
From Machine culture (2023) · cites this paper as [170]
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“When lag effects were discussed, they tended to be considered at a high level with general statements about the increasing speed of technological innovation, and past experiences of previous technological innovations (e.g., Autor, 2015).”
BackgroundRobots and organization studies: Why robots might not want to steal your job
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Machine learning and human capital complementarities: Experimental evidence on bias mitigation
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“Building on this literature, debates regarding whether AI will complement or substitute humans rest on widely different assumptions in theoretical models (Aghion et al., 2017; Autor, 2015; Benzell et al., 2015).”
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Immigrants, Productivity, and Labor Markets
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“…(Acemoglu and Restrepo, 2018), other studies highlight historical dynamics of complementarity rather than substitution between human labour and machinery (Autor, 2015; Bessen, 2017), with more complex outcomes such as polarization between high-and low-skilled workers (Autor and Dorn, 2013).”
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A human-in-the-loop manufacturing control architecture for the next generation of production systems
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Ageing and Employment Policies
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THE INNOVATION‐EMPLOYMENT NEXUS: A CRITICAL SURVEY OF THEORY AND EMPIRICS
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Digital Innovation and the Distribution of Income
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“B6-113/15, and, Autorité de la concurrence and Bundeskartellamt (2016), Competition Law and Data.”
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Machinic dispossession and augmented despotism: Digital work in an Amazon warehouse
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“In particular, studies of “algorithmic management” have analyzed how data-driven decision-making is automated and outsourced to digital technologies (Autor, 2015; Lee et al., 2015).”
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Functional specialisation in trade
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“fabrication job in manufacturing, such as the high degree of routineness (Autor, 2015).”
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The rise of robots and the fall of routine jobs
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“The prime suspect is automation ( Autor, 2015 ).”
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“…of these changes, aggregate demand for labour in the expanding economy typically increases insofar as productivity and real incomes increase (Autor, 2015) In the mid-to late 19th century, losses in agriculture and some craft areas were offset by increasing industrial employment and the…”
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Industrial robots, employment growth, and labor cost: A simultaneous equation analysis
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“automation and joblessness has developed into more realistic views, that is, many of the middle-skilled jobs of the future will combine routine technical tasks with non-routine tasks, in which employees hold comparative advantages, such as interpersonal interaction, flexibility, adaptability and problem-solving (Autor…”
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Unpacking the polarization of workplace skills
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Automation in the Life Science Research Laboratory
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“…design, research efficiency, reproducibility, innovation inhibition, environmental design INTRODUCTION The progressive integration of automation into work environments has enhanced the production rates, efficiency and quality of an enormous array of industrial processes (Hitomi, 1994; Autor, 2015).”
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What is the price of a skill? The value of complementarity
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“Despite recurring fears of mass unemployment as a result of automation, the current literature suggests that firms are using technologies to automate specific tasks rather than entire occupations (Autor, 2015).”
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“…a discussion about the future validity of traditional organizational assumptions (Jordan 2017) and the augmentation (Huang et al. 2019; Wilson and Daugherty 2018) or substitution of human managers by intelligent machines (Acemoglu and Restrepo 2018; Autor 2015; Brynjolfsson and Mitchell 2017).”
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The Growing Importance of Social Skills in the Labor Market
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Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies
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“This corresponds to Autor (2015)’s hypothesis that while very low-end and very high-end jobs will remain, several middle-level jobs will be lost, such as financial analysts, routine trading functions, paralegals, HR roles, loan officers, financial advisors, etc.”
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“…has emerged about the sectoral employment impact of artificial intelligence and robots, opposing scholars confident in the complementarity between these new technologies and humans (Autor, 2015) and those predicting mass unemployment across a wide range of jobs and tasks (Frey and Osborne, 2017).”
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Working Algorithms: Software Automation and the Future of Work
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Labor cost, government intervention, and corporate innovation: Evidence from China
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- Authors
- Autor, D. H.
- Affiliations
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology (US)
- Corresponding author
- Autor, David H.
- ORCID
- Autor, David H.
- Venue
- Journal of Economic Perspectives
- Publisher
- American Economic Association
- Published
- 2015-08-01
- Volume
- 29
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 3-30
- ISSN
- 0895-3309 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W1821977771
- Cited by
- 3,917
- References
- 46
- Citations by year
- 2026: 697 · 2025: 579 · 2024: 457 · 2023: 364 · 2022: 309 · 2021: 345 · 2020: 349 · 2019: 312 · 2018: 263 · 2017: 153 · 2016: 72 · 2015: 9 · 2014: 4 · 2013: 2
- FWCI
- 398.92
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- The Journal of Economic Perspectives (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- DSpace@MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Labor market dynamics and wage inequality
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Digital Economy and Work Transformation
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic Growth and Productivity
- Keywords
- workplace automation, labor substitution, labor complementarity, labor demand, labor supply, labor market polarization, wage inequality, artificial intelligence, robotics, career change, job creation, routine tasks, problem-solving skills, comparative advantage
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