Improving the Accuracy of Predicted Human Pharmacokinetics: Lessons Learned from the AstraZeneca Drug Pipeline Over Two Decades
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During drug discovery and prior to the first human dose of a novel candidate drug, the pharmacokinetic (PK) behavior of the drug in humans is predicted from preclinical data. This helps to inform the likelihood of achieving therapeutic exposures in early clinical development. Once clinical data are available, the observed human PK are compared with predictions, providing an opportunity to assess and refine prediction methods. Application of best practice in experimental data generation and predictive methodologies, and a focus on robust mechanistic understanding of the candidate drug disposition properties before nomination to clinical development, have led to maximizing the probability of successful PK predictions so that 83% of AstraZeneca drug development projects progress in the clinic with no PK issues; and 71% of key PK parameter predictions [64% of area under the curve (AUC) predictions; 78% of maximum concentration (C max ) predictions; and 70% of half-life predictions] are accurate to within twofold. Here, we discuss methods to predict human PK used by AstraZeneca, how these predictions are assessed and what can be learned from evaluating the predictions for 116 candidate drugs.
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Recent lessons shared by scientists at AstraZeneca, Bayer, Merck and GSK highlight the complexities of ADMET property prediction.
“Recent lessons shared by scientists at AstraZeneca (83), Bayer (84), Merck (85) and GSK (86) highlight the complexities of ADMET property prediction (87).”
From Artificial Intelligence for Drug Discovery: Are We There Yet? (2024) · cites this paper as [84]
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“Over the years, the methods that use in vitro or in silico ADME data to predict PK properties have improved for clinical and pharmaceutical compounds (Davies et al. 2020; Korzekwa and Nagar, 2017; Murad et al., 2020).”
BackgroundThe role of DMPK science in improving pharmaceutical research and development efficiency
Mak, K., Epemolu, O., & Pichika, M. R. (2021) · Drug Discovery Today · doi:10.1016/j.drudis.2021.11.005 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
Current and Emerging Prodrug Strategies
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“The metabolic stability of a molecule largely determines its concentration and efficacy in the body, and profoundly affects the pharmacokinetic process [3, 4].”
BackgroundArtificial Intelligence in Drug Safety and Metabolism
Smith, G. F. (2021) · Methods in molecular biology · doi:10.1007/978-1-0716-1787-8_22 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Structure‒tissue exposure/selectivity relationship (STR) correlates with clinical efficacy/safety
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“…human in vitro ADME (HT ‐ ADME) screening has become an important step in drug discovery, and the large volume of data generated with these approaches is guiding the development of AI ‐ powered in silico tools for the prediction of ADME pro fi les (Davies et al., 2020; Göller et al., 2020).”
BackgroundMethodMavroudis, P. D., Teutonico, D., Abós, A., & Pillai, N. (2023) · Frontiers in Systems Biology · doi:10.3389/fsysb.2023.1180948 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
“The prediction of the pharmacokinetic (PK) exposure of drugs is critical to understanding their behavior, with researchers striving for optimal concentration versus time profile at the site of action to reach both efficacy and a suitable safety profile at a given dose and regimen (Hutchinson and Kirk, 2011; Khanna, 20…”
Physiologically based biopharmaceutics modeling of regional and colon absorption in humans
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“chemical matter or published compounds (Davies et al., 2020; De Buck et al., 2007; Fura et al., 2008; Jones et al., 2006; Peters et al., 2020; Zhang et al., 2015).”
Healthy volunteers in first‐in‐human oncology drug development for small molecules
Heras, B. D. L., Bouyoucef‐Cherchalli, D., Reeve, L., Reichl, A., Mandarino, D., Flach, S. D., Vidal, L., van Brummelen, E. M. J., & Steeghs, N. (2021) · British Journal of Clinical Pharmacology · doi:10.1111/bcp.15092 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
“modelling from in vitro and in vivo nonclinical data to predict human exposure in FIH trials for 116 candidate small molecules revealed moderate predictive values, with 59-78% of maximum observed plasma concentration (Cmax)and 58-64% of area under the plasma concentration-time curve (AUC) predictions were within 2-fol…”
ResultTowards single cell encapsulation for precision biology and medicine
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An automated approach to identify scientific publications reporting pharmacokinetic parameters
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“Transformers (BERT) 36 has achieved state-of-the-art results on a wide variety of natural language processing (NLP) tasks (e.g. sentence classification, language inference, NER, question answering).”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialPerspectives on the use of machine learning for ADME prediction at AstraZeneca
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“PK parameters are inter-related but can be grouped as described by Davies et al. (Davies et al. 2020); into primary and secondary PK parameters. examples of primary PK parameters are clearance (cl) that is related to the drug’s elimination process and is indicative of the rate at which a drug is eliminated from the bo…”
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“It significantly impacts various pharmacokinetic (PK) processes, such as oral bioavailability, the volume of distribution, clearance, half-life, and toxicity, ultimately influencing the appropriate drug dose and frequency (Davies et al. 2020, Gajula et al. 2021).”
BackgroundArtificial intelligence in drug discovery — what it is, where we stand and the path forward
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Physiologically Based Biopharmaceutics Modeling of Regional and Colon Absorption in Dogs
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Quantitative Systems Pharmacology and Machine Learning: A Match Made in Heaven or Hell?
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PKSmart: An Open-Source Computational Model to Predict in vivo Pharmacokinetics of Small MoleculesPreprint
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“Drug exposure is a focal component of pharmacokinetics (PK), which plays an essential role in drug discovery and consequently a part in compound attrition during clinical development [3, 4].”
BackgroundADME and DMPK considerations for the discovery and development of antibody drug conjugates (ADCs)
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“optimise study designs, translate PK (Davies et al. 2020) and”
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“With this study we demonstrate that renal total and secretory clearance can be predicted within an acceptable 5-fold range, an industry standard commonly employed in pre-clinical development (Davies et al., 2020), using a model-based”
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“IgGs (i.e. mAbs) are typical examples [34, 40, 41].”
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Self-citationThe Role of Artificial Intelligence in Therapeutic Drug Monitoring and Clinical Toxicity
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“However, this method is limited by drug loss due to systematic effects such as hepatic metabolism and renal and biliary elimination clearance [46].”
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- Authors
- Davies, M., Jones, R. D. O., Grime, K., Jansson-Löfmark, R., Fretland, A. J., Winiwarter, S., Morgan, P., & McGinnity, D. F.
- Affiliations
- AstraZeneca (United Kingdom) (GB)
- AstraZeneca (Sweden) (SE)
- AstraZeneca (United States) (US)
- Corresponding author
- Davies, Michael
- Venue
- Trends in Pharmacological Sciences
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2020-06
- Volume
- 41
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- 390-408
- ISSN
- 0165-6147 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3023096250
- Cited by
- 123
- References
- 78
- Citations by year
- 2026: 13 · 2025: 24 · 2024: 22 · 2023: 22 · 2022: 17 · 2021: 18 · 2020: 7
- FWCI
- 3.57
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Trends in Pharmacological Sciences (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Pediatrics, Perinatology and Child Health › Pharmaceutical studies and practices
- Health Sciences › Veterinary › Small Animals › Animal testing and alternatives
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Computational Theory and Mathematics › Computational Drug Discovery Methods
- Keywords
- human pharmacokinetics, drug development pipeline, AstraZeneca, area under the curve, maximum concentration, half-life
- MeSH terms
- Humans, Pharmacokinetics, Drug Discovery
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Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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