Cited by 123Electric Vehicles and InfrastructureVehicle emissions and performanceElectric and Hybrid Vehicle Technologies

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 58 of the 58 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 6 of the 32 sources its claims cite were checked for support.

Electric and hydrogen buses: Shifting from conventionally fuelled cars in the UK

Open access
Logan, Kathryn G., Nelson, John D., Hastings, Astley·2020·Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment

Abstract

For the UK to meet their national target of net zero emissions as part of the central Paris Agreement target, further emphasis needs to be placed on decarbonizing public transport and moving away from personal transport (conventionally fuelled vehicles (CFVs) and electric vehicles (EVs)). Electric buses (EBs) and hydrogen buses (HBs) have the potential to fulfil requirements if powered from low carbon renewable energy sources. A comparison of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions produced from conventionally fuelled buses (CFB), EBs and HBs between 2017 and 2050 under four National Grid electricity scenarios was conducted. In addition, emissions per person at different vehicle capacity levels (100%, 75%, 50% and 25%) were projected for CFBs, HBs, EBs and personal transport assuming a maximum of 80 passengers per bus and four per personal vehicle. Results indicated that CFVs produced 30 gCO2 km−1 per person compared to 16.3 gCO2 km−1 per person by CFBs by 2050. At 100% capacity, under the two-degree scenario, CFB emissions were 36 times higher than EBs, 9 times higher than HBs and 12 times higher than EVs in 2050. Cumulative emissions under all electricity scenarios remained lower for EBs and HBs. Policy makers need to focus on encouraging a modal shift from personal transport towards sustainable public transport, primarily EBs as the lowest level emitting vehicle type. Simple electrification of personal vehicles will not meet the required targets. Simultaneously, CFBs need to be replaced with EBs and HBs if the UK is going to meet emission targets.

Overview

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

This paper projects UK CO₂ emissions from conventionally fuelled buses (CFBs), electric buses (EBs), and hydrogen buses (HBs) from 2017 to 2050 under four National Grid electricity scenarios, comparing them with conventionally fuelled vehicles (CFVs) and electric vehicles (EVs). It concludes that EBs produce the lowest operating emissions per person and that a modal shift from personal vehicles to sustainable public transport is needed for the UK to meet net-zero targets.

Key findings

  • At 100% capacity under the two-degree scenario, 2050 CFB emissions were 36 times higher than EBs, 9 times higher than HBs, and 12 times higher than EVs.
  • At 100% capacity, CFVs produced 30.0 gCO₂ km⁻¹ per person in 2017 and 21.8 in 2050, while CFBs produced 16.3 in 2017 and 14.2 in 2050; EBs produced 5.3 in 2017 and 0.4 in 2050, and HBs 12.9 in 2017 and 1.6 in 2050.
  • Under the two-degree scenario, EBs emitted 3.2 gCO₂ km⁻¹ per person at 100% capacity versus 7.8 for HBs; at 25% capacity, EBs emitted 12.8 versus 31.2 for HBs.
  • Cumulative 2017–2050 emissions under the two-degree scenario were 19.8 MtCO₂ for EBs, 48.1 MtCO₂ for HBs, 169.4 MtCO₂ for EVs, 258.3 MtCO₂ for CFBs, and 1315.7 MtCO₂ for CFVs.

Methods

  • The study projected CO₂ emissions from CFBs, EBs, and HBs between 2017 and 2050 under four UK National Grid electricity scenarios: two-degree, steady progression, community renewables, and consumer evolution.
  • It used UK Government and National Grid data plus the TEAM-UK model for bus numbers and distance travelled, and calculated emissions per person at 100%, 75%, 50%, and 25% vehicle capacity assuming 80 passengers per bus and four per personal vehicle.
  • EB modelling used 1.2 kWh km⁻¹ and an inefficiency factor of 1.18; HB modelling used 1.8 kWh km⁻¹, electrolysis inefficiency of 1.72, and a fuel-cell conversion factor of 1.25; SMR and coal gasification with and without CCS were analysed for 2018 only.

Limitations

  • The paper states it does not directly consider embedded carbon costs of vehicles, including decommissioning CFVs and constructing new vehicles, and that SMR/coal gasification could only be analysed for 2018 due to data certainty limitations.
  • The paper states EB energy consumption and conversion factors were kept constant through 2050, so EB emissions may be overestimated, and hydrogen estimates do not include life-cycle emissions from the generation source.
  • The text makes evident that the model is simple and assumes all electric modes are electric from 2017, that cars are at full capacity in some comparisons despite average CFV occupancy of 1.6, and that costs, infrastructure, and behavioural drivers of modal shift are discussed but not fully modelled.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1016/j.trd.2020.102350

Cites

58 of 58 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Verification

Claims the paper makes

41 Own result · 34 Own interpretation · 19 No basis given · 13 No full text of the sources · 5 Sources not found · 4 Partly supported · 4 Own method · 1 Supported · 1 Supported so far · 1 Not checked yet · accuracy not yet measured

Show all 65 claims

  • It may state two separate claims as one. 45
  • The quote only partly states this claim. 2
  • Probably not a substantial claim. 16
58 of 58
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The energy required during hydrogen generation is the same regardless of source.

    “It is assumed that the energy required during the hydrogen generation would be the same regardless of source.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The hydrogen production process is electrolysis.

    “This analysis assumes that the hydrogen production process is electrolysis, thought to be the most environmentally friendly method.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The generation approach assumes localised generation and minimal transmission and distribution losses.

    “This will reduce supply inefficiencies and was the assumed generation approach used in the methodology, assuming localised generation and minimal transmission and distribution losses.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Most HBs and EBs will be fuelled during the early hours of the morning.

    “It is assumed that most HBs and EBs will be fuelled during the early hours of the morning, therefore there will be an increased peak in network energy demand which may require energy storage to ensure network stability.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    All electric modes of transport are electric from 2017.

    “Results do not take into consideration life cycle emissions and assume that all electric modes of transport are electric from 2017, therefore although”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Technology is not currently in place for 100% renewable electricity generation.

    “As technology currently isn't in place for 100% renewable electricity generation”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Gas generation will be required as dispatchable power.

    “gas generation will be required as dispatchable power”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    CCS will help to mitigate some of the emissions produced from fossil electricity generation that provide dispatchable power when renewable generation is low.

    “CCS will help to mitigate some of the emissions produced from fossil electricity generation that provide dispatchable power when renewable generation is low.”
8 of 8

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

3 of 3

Citations

Cites

Show all 57 references

Research works printed but not linked: 2

  1. Brand, C., Anable, J., 2019. ‘Disruption’ and ‘continuity’ in transport energy systems : the case of the ban on new conventional fossil fuel vehicles, in: Eceee 2019 Summer Study. Giens, near Hyeres, France, pp. 1–12.
  2. Graurs, 2015, Public bus energy consumption investigation for transition to electric power and semi-dynamic charging, Eng. Rural Dev., 14, 366

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Metadata

Authors
Logan, K. G., Nelson, J. D., & Hastings, A.
Affiliations
  • University of Aberdeen (GB)
  • The University of Sydney (AU)
Corresponding author
Logan, Kathryn G.
Venue
Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Published
2020-08
Volume
85
Pages
102350
ISSN
1361-9209 (ISSN-L)
OpenAlex
W3026983565
Cited by
123
References
57
Citations by year
2026: 19 · 2025: 11 · 2024: 21 · 2023: 24 · 2022: 13 · 2021: 30 · 2020: 5
FWCI
6.07
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Transportation Research Part D Transport and Environment (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • Aberdeen University Research Archive (Aberdeen University) (submittedVersion)
Funders
Natural Environment Research Council
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Engineering › Electrical and Electronic Engineering › Electric Vehicles and Infrastructure
  • Physical Sciences › Engineering › Automotive Engineering › Vehicle emissions and performance
  • Physical Sciences › Engineering › Automotive Engineering › Electric and Hybrid Vehicle Technologies
Keywords
electric buses, hydrogen buses, CO2 emissions, modal shift, vehicle capacity, net-zero emissions, electric vehicles, UK transport policy

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